Weekly Ag Markets Update – 01/21/2025

Wheat: All three markets closed a little lower on relaxation of the tariffs and despite good weekly export sales.  Trump has allowed auto makers to avoid the tariffs for now and there are ideas that more industries will be exempted for at least a month or so.  There are now somewhat reduced fears that the US is entering a recession.  Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy.  This could be a supportive factor but overall demand has been weak so he lack of rain hurting production potential is less of an issue for the trade.  The fears of a US recession are the consequence of the Trump economic and political policies.  Republicans are trying to mask the threat by taking the government losses out of the GDP, but the consumer confidence is waning and could become a source of real harm to the economy.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn:  Corn closed a little higher last week as futures recovered well from some reports that the tariffs have been eased for at least some industries and especially the auto industry.  In addition, about half of the tariffs were eased against Mexico, the major Corn importer this year, and that country has said it will not yet put tariffs on ag imports including Corn.  The weekly export sales report was considered positive given the current political environment.  Dry and warm conditions are in the Midwest forecast for today.  The overall market fundamentals are still turning bearish.  The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying was in anticipation of the new presidential regime.  President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed as of Tuesday on goods and services and some buyers may have made purchases already to avoid the potential for the tariff later.  The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time.  Oats were higher as import tariffs were imposed on imports from Canada on Tuesday and seem to be holding so far.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower last week, but Soybean Meal was higher and it is showing signs of completing a bottom on the weekly charts.  Futures were hit hard in part on the Trump tariffs and in part response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week.  The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers and could hurt demand, especially from China and Canada.  Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand.  The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country.  The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be half done.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice: Rice closed lower last week after trading to new lows for the move earlier in the week.  It appears to be a reaction to the tariff threat on rice moving to Mexico, the major export recipient of US Rice.  Prices remain cheap and could threaten planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now.  Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher.  Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.  The trends are still down the daily and weekly charts.  Generally weak Asian prices are still reported.  Brazil prices are falling.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil closed higher and posted a reversal on the weekly charts.  There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things.  Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support.  Chart trends are turning up.  Canola was higher lower with Chicago.  The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses on report of moderations by the US on the tariff schedule.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton was near unchanged last week on some short covering and perhaps some commercial buying as the tariffs on autos were removed and on reports that Mexican and Canadian tariffs have been eased.  The US Dollar was lower, and Crude Oil futures were higher.  Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation.  China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working.  The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft mainly due to the tariffs.  There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.  A short term bounce is possible now but longer term a price recovery is not expected.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed a little higher last week in consolidation trading.  Reports that tariffs on Mexico could be eased and that could allow for more imports as Mexico has rescinded threats to put tariffs on its imports and exports.  Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts.  The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little looser.  The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York closed higher and London closed lower last week on doubts about the production in Brazil and the lack of offers from Brazil.  There are isolated showers in Brazil central areas in the forecast for now, but hot and dry weather is in the forecast longer term.  Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain.  The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly.  However, Vietnam offers have been increasing.  Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there.  The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year, an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle, while dry weather last year could also reduce the size of the 2025/26 harvest.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London were lower last week despite reports that the cash market is firming due to reduced production potential in major world producers.  Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are around.  Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.  Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.  Indian and Thai mills are expecting smaller crops of cane.  Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period.  Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  New York and London closed lower last week on speculative selling that went against industry buying.  Ideas are that a strong new crop is expected.  Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far.  There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening.  Chart trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts.  Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops.  It has been very dry in West Africa lately.  Overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

 

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