This week in the ag markets was driven mainly by the ongoing tariff/trade battle. Is started with a threat of 25% tariffs on all Mexico and Canadian goods on Tuesday, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The threat turned into actual action going home Tuesday night. The Chinese goods were left on, with a little retaliation on US goods (15% on corn, wheat, cotton, and 10% on beans, beef, and pork). After much back and forth and very few actually knowing the next move, when all was said and done, the tariffs on the neighboring countries were only implemented on goods outside of the USMCA trade agreement. What was at one point an all encompassing trade war has been trimmed back to a more targeted approach. Using leverage is part of ‘The Art of the Deal,’ but one would have to assume that not showing them your next step is also part of that.
Corn had an eventful week, but closed Friday near where it started the week, down just ¼ cent in May and ¾ cent in December. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production rising 12,000 barrels per day to 1.093 million bpd in the week of 2/28. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 282,000 barrels to 27.289 million barrels. Grain Crushings data from NASS tallied January corn grind for ethanol at 457.389 mbu, a 4.6% decline from December but 3.7% larger than the same month last year. Export Sales data indicated 2024/25 corn bookings at 909,050 MT for the week ending on February 20. That took export commitments to 49.567 MMT, which is 80% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 77%. January corn exports were a record for the month at 6.162 MMT (242.6 mbu), up 13.17% from the previous month and 43.34% above last year. Ethanol exports were a January record of 198.05 million gallons. CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options slashing back their net long position by another 117,702 contracts as of March 4, taking their net long to 219,752 contracts by Tuesday.
Wheat extended the weakness this week three exchanges, though the losses were lessened by midweek buying. Chicago May was down 4 ½ cents (-0.81%) on the week. May Kansas City posted a 8 1/4 cent loss this week (-1.44%). MPLS May was 5 cents (-0.84%) lower than last Friday. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export bookings improving to 338,703 MT during the week of February 27. That took export sale commitments to 20.48 MMT, which is now 89% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 97% average selling pace. Census data showed January wheat exports at 1.313 MT (48.26 mbu), which was the lowest for the month since 1972. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding 14,785 contracts to their nets short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of March 4 to 82,399 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 39,282 contracts, an addition of another 17,947 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans posted a loss of just ¾ cent this week in the May contract, with November 4 cents lower. May meal futures were up by $4.20 (1.4%), with bean oil down another 70 points (-1.59%) since last Friday. January crush was tallied at 212.5 mbu according to NASS Fats & Oils data, a 2.36% drop from thei Dec total but a record or the month and up 9.41% from last year. Thursday’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at just 352,883 MT in the week of 2/27. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 44.39 MMT. That is 89% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, matching the average pace. January soybean exports were 5.21 MMT (191.5 mbu), a 5-year low for the month and down 12.57% from last year. Bean Meal exports in the month were the second largest all time for the month at 1.425 MMT. Soybean oil shipments were the largest for any month since January 2010. Commitment of Traders data tallied spec traders in soybean futures and options at a net short of 35,487 contracts on Tuesday, a 43,696 contract flip from the previous week’s net long.
Live cattle saw a late week rally, helped by a stronger cash market, as April was up $7.625 (3.96%). Cash trade was steady early in the week near $197 the South, as late sales came in at $198. Northern trade came in later at $200-202, up $2-4 on the week. Feeders were up $2.00 in the March contract (0.73 %) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $7.29 week/week to $273.77. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw stronger action this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $9.10/cwt. Choice was up $3.07 (1.0%) to $319.90, while Select was $3.75 (1.2%) to $305.80. Weekly beef production totaled 504.9 million lbs this week, up 2.1% from last week and 2.9% above the same week last year. Year to date pork production is down 2.6%, as slaughter is 6.9% lower. USDA Export Sales data showed a total of 13,393 MT in beef bookings in the week of 2/27, a 3-week low and the third lowest for the MY. Shipments were at 13,203 MT, the second lowest this MY. January beef exports totaled 230.19 million lbs according to Census data converted to a carcass basis, the lowest January total since 2017 and down 11.1% from December. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options backing off of their net long position by another 10,843 contracts as of Tuesday to 110,468 contracts.
Hogs found some footing after early weakness, with contracts up $3.675. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $2.12 this week at $90.18 as of March 5. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 6 cents this week. The belly was again the leader, this time to the downside, down $2.45, with the loin and butt following along lower. Pork production was down 5% from last week and 0.2% below the same week last year at 524.1 million. Year to date pork production is down 4.4%, as slaughter is 4.8% lower. Export Sales data showed 42,449 MT in pork export business for 2025 in the week of 2/27, the second largest total for this MY. Shipments totaled 32,235 MT, back down from the week prior. Census data converted to a carcass basis showed 576.82 million lbs of pork shipped in January, which was down 1.9% from last year and 10.7% below December. Commitment of Traders data showed specs slashing another 33,012 contracts from their net long position as of 3/4 to a net position of 57,480 contracts.
Cotton futures found a pop, with May up 82 points after collapsing early in the week on the tariff news. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales at 241,487 RB of cotton sold in the week of February 27. Shipments were 334,035 RB in that week, which was the largest for the marketing year. Commitments are now at 9.852 million RB, which is 96% of the new USDA forecast, now 1% ahead of the normal sales pace. Monthly data from Census showed a total of 1.038 million bales of cotton shipped in January, which was down 12.13% from last year but up 23.08% from December. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was down another 201 points this week, to 51.88 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders adding another 11,504 contracts to extend their new record net short position as of 3/4 to 79,957 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. We won’t get the national Crop Progress reports until the first week of April, though the state reports are starting to come in on a weekly basis. On Tuesday, USDA will release their monthly WASDE update, as well the final Cotton Ginnings report before the annual release in May. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning. We will also get CPI data on Wednesday, with PPI data out on Thursday of next week. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning. On Friday, March grain futures expire.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans found some support around $10 this week, as they also held a spike of the 61.8% Fib retracement support at $10.04 ¾. That spike also coincides with Stochastics crossing in oversold, for a buy signal. MACD is still bearish and ADX suggest sticking with that for now. Futures are testing a broken 2/3 speedline at $10.27 ¼, with the 100-day moving average at $10.28. If we can reverse the recent downtrend, longer term resistance is at the 200-day moving average at $10.575. That stopped the rally last time, along with the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance at $10.77 off the LOC high to low.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Keep ‘em Guessin’. Ag Marketing Report 03/10/2025
This week in the ag markets was driven mainly by the ongoing tariff/trade battle. Is started with a threat of 25% tariffs on all Mexico and Canadian goods on Tuesday, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The threat turned into actual action going home Tuesday night. The Chinese goods were left on, with a little retaliation on US goods (15% on corn, wheat, cotton, and 10% on beans, beef, and pork). After much back and forth and very few actually knowing the next move, when all was said and done, the tariffs on the neighboring countries were only implemented on goods outside of the USMCA trade agreement. What was at one point an all encompassing trade war has been trimmed back to a more targeted approach. Using leverage is part of ‘The Art of the Deal,’ but one would have to assume that not showing them your next step is also part of that.
Corn had an eventful week, but closed Friday near where it started the week, down just ¼ cent in May and ¾ cent in December. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production rising 12,000 barrels per day to 1.093 million bpd in the week of 2/28. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 282,000 barrels to 27.289 million barrels. Grain Crushings data from NASS tallied January corn grind for ethanol at 457.389 mbu, a 4.6% decline from December but 3.7% larger than the same month last year. Export Sales data indicated 2024/25 corn bookings at 909,050 MT for the week ending on February 20. That took export commitments to 49.567 MMT, which is 80% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 77%. January corn exports were a record for the month at 6.162 MMT (242.6 mbu), up 13.17% from the previous month and 43.34% above last year. Ethanol exports were a January record of 198.05 million gallons. CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options slashing back their net long position by another 117,702 contracts as of March 4, taking their net long to 219,752 contracts by Tuesday.
Wheat extended the weakness this week three exchanges, though the losses were lessened by midweek buying. Chicago May was down 4 ½ cents (-0.81%) on the week. May Kansas City posted a 8 1/4 cent loss this week (-1.44%). MPLS May was 5 cents (-0.84%) lower than last Friday. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export bookings improving to 338,703 MT during the week of February 27. That took export sale commitments to 20.48 MMT, which is now 89% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 97% average selling pace. Census data showed January wheat exports at 1.313 MT (48.26 mbu), which was the lowest for the month since 1972. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding 14,785 contracts to their nets short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of March 4 to 82,399 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 39,282 contracts, an addition of another 17,947 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans posted a loss of just ¾ cent this week in the May contract, with November 4 cents lower. May meal futures were up by $4.20 (1.4%), with bean oil down another 70 points (-1.59%) since last Friday. January crush was tallied at 212.5 mbu according to NASS Fats & Oils data, a 2.36% drop from thei Dec total but a record or the month and up 9.41% from last year. Thursday’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at just 352,883 MT in the week of 2/27. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 44.39 MMT. That is 89% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, matching the average pace. January soybean exports were 5.21 MMT (191.5 mbu), a 5-year low for the month and down 12.57% from last year. Bean Meal exports in the month were the second largest all time for the month at 1.425 MMT. Soybean oil shipments were the largest for any month since January 2010. Commitment of Traders data tallied spec traders in soybean futures and options at a net short of 35,487 contracts on Tuesday, a 43,696 contract flip from the previous week’s net long.
Live cattle saw a late week rally, helped by a stronger cash market, as April was up $7.625 (3.96%). Cash trade was steady early in the week near $197 the South, as late sales came in at $198. Northern trade came in later at $200-202, up $2-4 on the week. Feeders were up $2.00 in the March contract (0.73 %) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $7.29 week/week to $273.77. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw stronger action this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $9.10/cwt. Choice was up $3.07 (1.0%) to $319.90, while Select was $3.75 (1.2%) to $305.80. Weekly beef production totaled 504.9 million lbs this week, up 2.1% from last week and 2.9% above the same week last year. Year to date pork production is down 2.6%, as slaughter is 6.9% lower. USDA Export Sales data showed a total of 13,393 MT in beef bookings in the week of 2/27, a 3-week low and the third lowest for the MY. Shipments were at 13,203 MT, the second lowest this MY. January beef exports totaled 230.19 million lbs according to Census data converted to a carcass basis, the lowest January total since 2017 and down 11.1% from December. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options backing off of their net long position by another 10,843 contracts as of Tuesday to 110,468 contracts.
Hogs found some footing after early weakness, with contracts up $3.675. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $2.12 this week at $90.18 as of March 5. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 6 cents this week. The belly was again the leader, this time to the downside, down $2.45, with the loin and butt following along lower. Pork production was down 5% from last week and 0.2% below the same week last year at 524.1 million. Year to date pork production is down 4.4%, as slaughter is 4.8% lower. Export Sales data showed 42,449 MT in pork export business for 2025 in the week of 2/27, the second largest total for this MY. Shipments totaled 32,235 MT, back down from the week prior. Census data converted to a carcass basis showed 576.82 million lbs of pork shipped in January, which was down 1.9% from last year and 10.7% below December. Commitment of Traders data showed specs slashing another 33,012 contracts from their net long position as of 3/4 to a net position of 57,480 contracts.
Cotton futures found a pop, with May up 82 points after collapsing early in the week on the tariff news. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales at 241,487 RB of cotton sold in the week of February 27. Shipments were 334,035 RB in that week, which was the largest for the marketing year. Commitments are now at 9.852 million RB, which is 96% of the new USDA forecast, now 1% ahead of the normal sales pace. Monthly data from Census showed a total of 1.038 million bales of cotton shipped in January, which was down 12.13% from last year but up 23.08% from December. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was down another 201 points this week, to 51.88 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders adding another 11,504 contracts to extend their new record net short position as of 3/4 to 79,957 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. We won’t get the national Crop Progress reports until the first week of April, though the state reports are starting to come in on a weekly basis. On Tuesday, USDA will release their monthly WASDE update, as well the final Cotton Ginnings report before the annual release in May. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning. We will also get CPI data on Wednesday, with PPI data out on Thursday of next week. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning. On Friday, March grain futures expire.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans found some support around $10 this week, as they also held a spike of the 61.8% Fib retracement support at $10.04 ¾. That spike also coincides with Stochastics crossing in oversold, for a buy signal. MACD is still bearish and ADX suggest sticking with that for now. Futures are testing a broken 2/3 speedline at $10.27 ¼, with the 100-day moving average at $10.28. If we can reverse the recent downtrend, longer term resistance is at the 200-day moving average at $10.575. That stopped the rally last time, along with the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance at $10.77 off the LOC high to low.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.