Softs Report 03/10/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was near unchanged last week on some short covering and perhaps some commercial buying as the tariffs on autos were removed and on reports that Mexican and Canadian tariffs have been eased. The US Dollar was lower, and Crude Oil futures were higher. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft mainly due to the tariffs. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year. A short term bounce is possible now but longer term a price recovery is not expected.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 63.90, 62.80, and 60.00 May, with resistance of 66.60, 67.60 and 68.20 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 04, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 330,115
: Positions :
: 39,611 118,081 76,703 116,273 93,427 81,289 27,163 313,875 315,373: 16,240 14,742
: Changes from: February 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 23,442) :
: -650 12,076 6,979 21,727 250 -3,309 2,838 24,747 22,143: -1,305 1,299
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 35.8 23.2 35.2 28.3 24.6 8.2 95.1 95.5: 4.9 4.5
: Total Traders: 360 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 132 106 76 59 45 28 283 261:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher last week in consolidation trading. Reports that tariffs on Mexico could be eased and that could allow for more imports as Mexico has rescinded threats to put tariffs on its imports and exports. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little looser. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 287.00, 280.00, and 268.00 May, with resistance at 322.00, 328.00, and 341.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 4, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,189 :
: Positions :
: 4,739 9,004 498 343 61 3,215 988 8 1,906 703 3,617 :
: Changes from: February 25, 2025 :
: 72 -31 -30 107 -27 -343 52 5 154 -176 95 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.3 55.6 3.1 2.1 0.4 19.9 6.1 0.0 11.8 4.3 22.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 12 8 . . . 10 7 . 16 6 10 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower last week on doubts about the production in Brazil and the lack of offers from Brazil. There are isolated showers in Brazil central areas in the forecast for now, but hot and dry weather is in the forecast longer term. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. However, Vietnam offers have been increasing. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year, an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle, while dry weather last year could also reduce the size of the 2025/26 harvest.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 345.12 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 378.00, 366.00, and 361.00 May, and resistance is at 402.00, 418.00 and 424.00 May. Trends in London are up. Support is at 5280, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 04, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 218,866
: Positions :
: 48,021 8,972 69,967 41,034 122,529 49,450 10,010 208,473 211,477: 10,393 7,388
: Changes from: February 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: 3,099) :
: -2,982 -240 5,152 -270 -1,277 758 -368 2,658 3,267: 442 -168
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.9 4.1 32.0 18.7 56.0 22.6 4.6 95.3 96.6: 4.7 3.4
: Total Traders: 367 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 140 49 107 90 117 46 18 314 260:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week despite reports that the cash market is firming due to reduced production potential in major world producers. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather. Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting smaller crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1720 May and resistance is at 1850, 1900, and 1940 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 510.00, 501.00, and 497.00 May, with resistance at 540.00, 550.00, and 553.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 04, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,018,326
: Positions :
: 74,565 154,965 256,206 334,570 469,375 290,367 76,509 955,709 957,055: 62,618 61,271
: Changes from: February 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: -70,901) :
: -15,306 -5,743 -540 -18,796 -58,331 -19,114 -5,362 -53,757 -69,976: -17,144 -925
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.3 15.2 25.2 32.9 46.1 28.5 7.5 93.9 94.0: 6.1 6.0
: Total Traders: 225 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 53 77 64 63 39 19 196 175:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on speculative selling that went against industry buying. Ideas are that a strong new crop is expected. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening. Chart trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. Overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 7680, 6670, and 6570 May, with resistance at 8780, 9180, and 9140 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 6090, 5600, and 5290 May, with resistance at 7050, 7400, and 7620 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 04, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 133,991
: Positions :
: 15,888 10,521 43,096 47,995 63,209 17,157 11,479 124,136 128,306: 9,855 5,685
: Changes from: February 25, 2025 (Change in open interest: -7,272) :
: -1,002 -500 -960 -2,992 -8,526 -1,738 2,710 -6,692 -7,276: -580 5
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 7.9 32.2 35.8 47.2 12.8 8.6 92.6 95.8: 7.4 4.2
: Total Traders: 161 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 42 62 31 31 28 14 141 120:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322