Grains Report 01/08/2025

DJ Survey: USDA U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of acres for 2025 U.S. winter wheat that was planted in October and November, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2025 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Average Range USDA 2024
All Winter Wheat 33.5 32.5-34.4 33.4
Hard Red Winter 23.8 23.3-24.5 23.8
Soft Red Winter 6.2 5.7-6.5 6.1
White Winter 3.5 3.4-3.6 3.5
All Winter Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Allendale 33.3 23.7 6.1 3.6
Doane 33.6 23.8 6.3 3.6
Linn Group 33.5 23.9 6.0 3.6
Sid Love Consulting 32.9 23.4 6.0 3.5
Marex Group 33.7 24.0 6.2 3.5
Midland Research 33.7 23.7 6.5 3.6
Midwest Market Solutions 33.8 24.0 6.3 3.5
Northstar Commodity 34.1 24.1 6.4 3.6
Ocean State Research 32.5 23.3 5.7 3.5
RMC 32.7 23.4 5.9 3.4
RJ O’Brien 33.7 24.0 6.2 3.5
StoneX Group 34.4 24.5 6.4 3.5
U.S. Commodities 33.4 23.8 6.1 3.5

DJ Survey: Dec. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for December 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2024 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Sept. 2024 Dec. 2023
Corn 12,164 11,912-12,320 1,760 12,171
Soybeans 3,236 3,040-3,587 342 3,001
Wheat 1,578 1,460-1,638 1,986 1,421
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 12,217 3,237 1,521
Doane 12,184 3,251 1,595
Grain Cycles 12,030 3,195 1,610
Linn Group 12,093 3,192 1,579
Sid Love Consulting 12,079 3,587 1,586
Marex Group 12,250 3,040 1,460
Midland Research 11,912 3,170 1,581
Northstar Commodity 12,320 3,150 1,575
Ocean State Research 12,313 3,280 1,638
RMC 12,171 3,326 1,600
RJ O’Brien 12,167 3,191 1,603
StoneX Group 12,227 3,218 1,592

DJ January World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK-The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2024-25, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World 2024-25 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25 USDA
Average Range December
Corn 295.0 290.5-297.1 296.4
Soybeans 132.0 130.0-133.0 131.9
Wheat 258.2 256.5-259.0 257.9
2024-25
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 294.9 131.8 257.1
Grain Cycles 290.5 130.0 256.5
Linn Group 295.0 131.0 258.2
Marex Group 296.0 133.0 259.0
Midwest Market Solutions 297.0 132.1 259.0
Northstar Commodity 294.0 131.5 259.0
Ocean State Research 296.0 133.0 258.0
RMC 294.0 132.5 258.0
StoneX Group 297.1 132.4 258.9
US Commodities 296.0 133.0 258.5

DJ U.S. January Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK-The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2024-25, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. 2024-25 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2023-24
Corn 1,678 1,540-1,815 1,738 1,760
Soybeans 454 390-486 470 342
Wheat 807 792-830 795 696
2024-25
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 1,681 467 795
Doane 1,815 430 820
Grain Cycles 1,540 432 795
Linn Group 1,665 435 810
Sid Love Consulting 1,621 423 821
Marex Group 1,725 485 795
Midland Research 1,560 390 795
Midwest Market Solutions 1,730 485 825
Northstar Commodity 1,700 460 810
Ocean State Research 1,679 458 820
RMC 1,625 450 795
RJ O’Brien 1,725 484 830
StoneX Group 1,723 486 792
US Commodities 1,720 473 800
VantageRM 1,663 445 795

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2023-2024
Corn Production 15,092 14,965-15,240 15,143 15,341
Corn Yield 182.6 181.3-183.7 183.1 177.3
Harvested Acres 82.6 82.2-82.7 82.7 86.5
Soybean Production 4,451 4,419-4,539 4,461 4,162
Soybean Yield 51.6 51.2-52.6 51.7 50.6
Harvested Acres 86.3 85.8-86.4 86.3 82.3
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Harvested Production Yield Harvested
Acres Acres
Allendale 15,082 182.6 82.6 4,473 51.9 86.1
Doane 15,129 182.9 82.7 4,445 51.5 86.3
Grain Cycles 14,991 181.3 82.7 4,433 51.3 86.4
Linn Group 15,107 183.2 82.5 4,419 51.2 86.3
Sid Love Consulting 15,001 182.5 82.2 4,419 51.5 85.8
Marex Group 15,134 183.0 82.7 4,488 52.0 86.3
Midland Research 14,965 181.6 82.4 4,436 51.4 86.3
Midwest Market Solutions 15,240 183.5 82.7 4,445 51.5 86.3
Northstar Commodity 15,092 182.5 82.7 4,435 51.4 86.3
Ocean State Research 15,033 182.0 82.6 4,461 51.7 86.3
RMC 15,035 181.8 82.7 4,436 51.4 86.3
RJ O’Brien 15,175 183.5 82.7 4,443 51.5 86.3
StoneX Group 15,193 183.7 82.7 4,539 52.6 86.3
US Commodities 15,134 183.0 82.7 4,453 51.6 86.3
VantageRM 15,068 182.2 82.7 4,436 51.4 86.3

DJ U.S. Farmers’ Short-term View on Ag Economy Darkens — Market Talk
1101 ET – U.S. farmer sentiment about the U.S. agricultural economy grew darker over the past month, according to data from Purdue University and the CME Group. While farmers are less optimistic than in previous months, overall sentiment remains better than where it was before the presidential election in November. “While sentiment dipped this month, it’s clear that much of the postelection optimism about future conditions is still holding strong,” said James Mintert of Purdue. “Producers’ optimism about the future seems to stem largely from their expectations for a more favorable policy environment over the next five years.” The short-term economic outlook is growing increasingly unfavorable, according to this month’s report — with 57% of farmers reporting that their short-term outlook has grown less favorable versus 51% the previous month. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher yesterday on what appeared to be mostly speculative buying. There weas not any real news for buyers. World Wheat demand has been strong, but there has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 528, 522, and 516 March, with resistance at 554, 561, and 569 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 538, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 560, 568, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 583, 572, and 566 March, and resistance is at 601, 606, and 611 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mixed and little changed yesterday in some light volume speculative trading. The trends are mixed on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices, but the difference is now less to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1382, 1372 and 1366 March and resistance is at 1423, 1454, and 1474 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly lower yesterday, mostly in sympathy with the selling seen in Soybeans. The export sales report released last week by USDA showed a big reduction in demand and many think that this could become a feature for the market. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. It is about to turn very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 448, 441, and 436 March, and resistance is at 460, 464, and 470 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 320, 313, and 398 March, and resistance is at 336, 339, and 350 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher and the products closed mixed yesterday, with Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil higher. Ideas are that Soybeans will eventually move lower. Supplies are very large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest last year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. And are getting cheaper Soybeans from Brazil. Supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices.
Overnight News: Unknown destiations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 983, 972, and 969 March, and resistance is at 1004, 1015, and 1024 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 297.00, 292.00, and 285.00 March, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 3950, 3900, and 3840 March, with resistance at 4160, 4260, and 4370 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was slightly lower today on export demand weakness. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower and the market seems to be fading against the December highs. The charts show that a low has been completed and a new uptrend could be underway. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 619.00, 610.00, and 601.00 March, with resistance at 632.00, 640.00, and 647.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4280, 4170, and 4070 March, with resistance at 4450, 4570, and 4650 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1110.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1080.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1080.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 992.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 977.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1115.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1085.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1085.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 997.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 982.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1120.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 985.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 4,750.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 470.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5005)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 110,478 lots, or 4.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,753 3,753 3,753 3,753 3,820 3,753 -67 64 1,406
Mar-25 3,785 3,790 3,767 3,770 3,795 3,776 -19 6,695 43,645
May-25 3,847 3,851 3,825 3,837 3,861 3,839 -22 89,960 176,435
Jul-25 3,866 3,869 3,840 3,849 3,880 3,853 -27 8,045 27,213
Sep-25 3,892 3,894 3,866 3,875 3,905 3,880 -25 3,116 17,521
Nov-25 3,884 3,888 3,865 3,872 3,902 3,876 -26 2,598 7,617
Corn
Turnover: 497,900 lots, or 11.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,100 2,105 2,100 2,101 2,094 2,102 8 628 7,893
Mar-25 2,139 2,146 2,135 2,143 2,137 2,141 4 57,575 463,112
May-25 2,226 2,234 2,222 2,230 2,224 2,228 4 396,767 1,197,450
Jul-25 2,258 2,262 2,251 2,256 2,253 2,256 3 28,617 269,258
Sep-25 2,275 2,283 2,273 2,279 2,275 2,277 2 9,654 63,480
Nov-25 2,220 2,226 2,219 2,225 2,219 2,223 4 4,659 49,695
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,612,972 lots, or 43.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,830 2,849 2,826 2,830 2,856 2,835 -21 20 7,667
Mar-25 2,832 2,868 2,826 2,841 2,845 2,850 5 81,626 359,572
May-25 2,648 2,672 2,636 2,646 2,670 2,655 -15 1,272,905 2,292,826
Jul-25 2,631 2,651 2,624 2,630 2,656 2,637 -19 43,864 288,698
Aug-25 2,790 2,813 2,781 2,790 2,811 2,798 -13 17,159 158,041
Sep-25 2,797 2,824 2,790 2,800 2,824 2,806 -18 171,910 926,110
Nov-25 2,826 2,845 2,814 2,822 2,846 2,830 -16 15,944 197,463
Dec-25 2,883 2,911 2,881 2,893 2,916 2,900 -16 9,544 51,717
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,135,136 lots, or 9.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,900 9,900 9,900 9,900 9,904 9,900 -4 20 930
Feb-25 9,556 9,614 9,414 9,426 9,482 9,532 50 19,637 17,461
Mar-25 9,210 9,258 9,078 9,086 9,096 9,186 90 10,069 16,441
Apr-25 8,916 8,966 8,798 8,800 8,788 8,890 102 823 1,348
May-25 8,712 8,774 8,608 8,618 8,576 8,686 110 1,046,988 469,991
Jun-25 8,550 8,612 8,474 8,474 8,406 8,550 144 296 577
Jul-25 8,444 8,488 8,370 8,370 8,304 8,422 118 189 585
Aug-25 8,364 8,412 8,314 8,318 8,240 8,354 114 106 185
Sep-25 8,312 8,380 8,260 8,282 8,204 8,306 102 56,773 93,628
Oct-25 8,208 8,320 8,208 8,238 8,166 8,230 64 93 486
Nov-25 8,214 8,292 8,198 8,214 8,140 8,236 96 110 296
Dec-25 8,230 8,278 8,196 8,198 8,142 8,228 86 32 118
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 516,370 lots, or 39.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 7,560 7,560 7,560 7,560 7,560 7,560 0 1 1,518
Mar-25 7,636 7,656 7,580 7,620 7,618 7,614 -4 7,874 22,690
May-25 7,582 7,602 7,520 7,552 7,580 7,562 -18 463,855 665,638
Jul-25 7,552 7,554 7,484 7,506 7,528 7,518 -10 1,372 7,296
Aug-25 7,568 7,572 7,520 7,554 7,550 7,550 0 68 617
Sep-25 7,512 7,528 7,462 7,488 7,504 7,496 -8 42,572 134,697
Nov-25 7,532 7,556 7,508 7,548 7,538 7,526 -12 611 1,802
Dec-25 7,544 7,556 7,522 7,538 7,540 7,540 0 17 49
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322