Softs Report 01/08/2025

DJ U.S. November Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Jan 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2024—- —-Oct 2024—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 100,451,709 221,496,018 89,792,304 197,992,030
coffee, roasted 10,696,247 23,585,225 10,945,710 24,135,291
coffee, soluble
instant 7,711,873 17,004,680 5,657,121 12,473,952
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 10,365,912 22,856,836 9,466,703 20,874,080
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,483,317 5,475,714 2,410,909 5,316,054
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 7,199,075 15,873,960 7,469,613 16,470,497
cocoa paste,
not defatted 4,547,341 10,026,887 2,667,144 5,881,053
cocoa paste
defatted 6,080,664 13,407,864 6,379,783 14,067,422
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 8,012,981 17,668,623 8,692,397 19,166,735
cocoa powder,
sweetened 93,553 206,284 198,644 438,010
confectioners
coating 4,590,951 10,123,047 4,943,242 10,899,849
candy containing
chocolate 17,150,039 37,815,836 15,827,688 34,900,052

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was slightly higher yesterday as cold and snow snarled traffic in growing areas and lingering concern about the Trump tariff program. This has been denied by the new officials. The weekly export sales report did not show strong sales. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News: The USDA daily price is now 64.37 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.50, 66.80, and 66.20 March, with resistance of 69.40, 69.90 and 70.40 March.

DJ U.S. Nov Cotton Exports-Jan 7
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 24 Oct 24 Sep 24 Nov 23
Upland, under 1 inch 3,846,916 2,240,774 3,397,323 3,878,585
1 to 1 1/8 inch 42,888,221 32,424,994 26,645,358 43,230,233
upland 1 1/8 and over 3,564,247 7,678,942 5,097,410 6,644,445
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 93,119,410 82,463,970 74,287,555 67,781,979
All cotton 143,418,794 124,808,680 109,427,646 121,535,242
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Nov 24 Oct 24 Sep 24 Nov 23
Upland, under 1 inch 17,669 10,292 15,604 17,814
1 to 1 1/8 inch 196,984 148,927 122,381 198,555
upland 1 1/8 and over 16,370 35,269 23,412 30,518
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 427,694 378,754 341,200 311,320
All cotton 658,717 573,242 502,597 558,207

Trade Estimates for the USDA WASDE Report on Friday:
2024-25: Avg Low High Dec. Avg vs Prior
US Production 14.16 14.00 14.26 14.26 -0.104
US Exports 11.24 11.10 11.50 11.30 -0.056
US End Stocks 4.28 3.90 4.55 4.40 -0.116
World Production 117.33 117.00 117.80 117.39 -0.059
World Consumption 115.76 115.50 116.00 115.79 -0.029
World End Stocks 75.90 75.50 76.10 76.02 -0.119

Analyst Estimates: US Production US Exports US Ending Stocks World Production World Consumption World Ending Stocks
Doane 14.23 11.10 4.55 117.80 115.80 76.10
Higby Barrett 14.26 11.30 4.40 117.50 116.00 76.00
Hilltop Securities 14.11 11.50 4.07 117.20 115.59 75.91
Love Consulting 14.00 11.30 4.10 117.00 115.50 75.50
Price Futures Group 14.20 11.10 3.90 117.30 115.80 75.90
Varner Bros. 14.25 11.25 4.45 117.25 116.00 75.70
VLM Commodities 14.00 11.10 4.50 117.60 115.90 76.10
Wedbush Securities 14.20 11.30 4.30 117.00 115.50 76.00

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday as the cold weather invaded the eastern half of the country and did not harm Florida growing areas. The chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains very tight. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 9 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 489.00, 485.00, and 471.00 March, with resistance at 512.00, 524.00, and 530.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday on some new buying by speculators. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. Conditions are now good in Brazil as it has been raining. There are reports from Brazil that producers are selling again as the Real has weakened and producers are now making record money in Real terms.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 298.00 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 347.00 and 353.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4910, 4770, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 January.

SUGER
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday in range trading. The Brazilian Real has been very weak lately to encourage sales and help keep pressure on prices. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts in both markets. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1850 March and resistance is at 2000, 2070, and 2140 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 503.00, 495.00, and 490.00 March, with resistance at 521.00, 526.00, and 538.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in range trading, but the market has been acting weaker lately. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 10800, 10250, and 9790 March, with resistance at 11880, 13000, and 14200 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 8500, 8160, and 7810 March, with resistance at 9380, 10200, and 10500 March.

DJ Cocoa Farmers Uproot Their Plants Despite Record Prices — WSJ
By Alexandra Wexler
Cocoa was the best-performing commodity in 2024, outpacing even bitcoin, but that hasn’t stopped farmers from abandoning the crop.
Farmers in the top cocoa-producing region of the world are reseeding their lands because of a mixture of bad weather, failed government policies — many of which were aimed at helping farmers — and a fast-moving virus that has ravaged their plants.
The result is higher prices for chocolate lovers and a steep drop in production from Ivory Coast and Ghana, the traditional cocoa behemoths of West Africa.
John Ato Sackey, 55 years old, grew cocoa for more than 30 years on the 12-acre farm he inherited from his father in Assin Nsuaem, Ghana. For more than two decades, up until 2022, the farm consistently produced around 5,000 cocoa pods a year. Each cocoa pod produces approximately one 3.5-ounce bar of 70% dark chocolate.
“It was a lot of hard work, but it paid off,” Sackey said. “It provided us with a steady income, which allowed us to send our children to school and provide for their healthcare.”
But as prices soared to record levels, Sackey pulled up his cocoa trees, which had been decimated over the past two years by cacao swollen-shoot virus, a disease that causes root necrosis and is deadly to cocoa trees.
Sackey is currently planting oil palm seedlings. “We’re hoping that palm-oil production will be more sustainable and profitable for us,” he said. “It’s less susceptible to disease, and it requires less labor and inputs. Additionally, the market demand for palm oil is high, so we’re hoping to make a good profit from it.”
Sackey is one of many multigenerational cocoa farmers transitioning out of the family business. A factor in those decisions has been faulty government policies, including a fixed price that the countries pay farmers for their beans.
That policy, intended to protect cocoa farmers from volatile swings in global markets, has kept them from enjoying the benefits of rising prices, just when they need the cash the most. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana forward-sell the next season’s beans and set the price that farmers receive, called the farmgate price. Growers currently receive less than a third of the amount their beans fetch on international markets, while the governments reap a windfall.
Cocoa futures in New York soared 178% last year, hitting a record high of $12,565 a metric ton in December. By comparison, bitcoin surged 122% in 2024.
For a period, Ghana distributed fertilizer to cocoa farmers for free in an effort to boost yields. In 2020, the two nations formed a chocolate bloc to impose a premium on buyers of $400 per metric ton of cocoa, a surcharge they said would go directly into the pockets of farmers. None of it has worked.
“Basically Ghana and [Ivory Coast] treated the cocoa sector as kind of a given, just taking the foreign currency,” said Antonie Fountain, managing director of the Voice network, an association of civil society organizations working in sustainable cocoa. “We’ve been saying [for decades], ‘You’re going to have to pay a fair price to farmers, or else at some point, you’re going to run out of farmers’ — which is kind of what’s happening now.”
For a quarter of a century, Francis Kwame Mensah, 45, has been growing cocoa, a trade he learned from his father. Two years ago, his 5-acre farm in Amanase, Ghana, produced about 2,000 cocoa pods a year, but the swollen-shoot virus has devastated his crop.
After the withdrawal of government subsidies, he now has to pay for his own fertilizer, something he can ill afford amid a broad cost-of-living crisis and a plunging local currency. The result is a 75% drop in his output and a halving of his income to about $170 a month. He slashed his workforce and expenses, and stopped saving for his four children’s educations.
“It’s been a while since I’ve received any support, and I’m starting to feel like I’ve been forgotten,” Mensah said. “The price increase has helped a bit, but it’s not enough to offset the decline in productivity. I still struggle to make ends meet, and I’m not sure how much longer I can keep going.”
Cocoa production in Ivory Coast dropped 22% during the 12-month season that ended Sept. 30, from the same period a year earlier, while Ghana’s output plunged 27% over the same period of time, according to the International Cocoa Organization.
Officials, farmers and analysts blame adverse weather in West Africa — wet weather in the dry season and dry weather in the traditional wet season — for much of the current production shortfall. However, West African neighbors Cameroon and Nigeria, which are tied as the world’s fourth-largest cocoa producers, have experienced similar weather and have seen their production increase in recent years.
Before the current production drop, farmers in Ivory Coast and Ghana often raised output by cutting down forest to clear space for more cocoa trees. But a new European Union law aimed at protecting the world’s rainforest means that West African farmers have to try to grow more cocoa on the plots they have.
That decision often leads to big upfront costs because it essentially requires farmers to pull up older, less-productive trees and plant new ones to increase production, especially as farms are ravaged by diseases.
Like other cocoa farmers, Mensah has diversified: He now grows cassava and maize, and has started a small poultry business. Mensah is considering replacing his cocoa trees with rubber or oil palm.
“I need to explore other options to secure my family’s future,” Mensah said. “It’s not an easy decision, but I think it’s

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322