History Repeating. The Energy Report 01/09/2025

 As the nation mourns and lays to rest our 39th President James Earl Carter events in the world and the oil remind us of the waning days of his Presidency.

Oil prices are on the rebound after a break in prices as surging demand from the weather, manufacturing and dangerously low stocks at the Cushing Oklahoma delivery point are keeping the market supported.

The Market did trade above $75 a barrel for the first time since October but pulled back after US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said, “we’re very close to a hostage on a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East.”

Curiously enough this came as President Elect Donald Trump warned in a press conference on Tuesday, that “if those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.”

Of course, President Jimmy Carter’s presidency was consumed with the Iranian hostage crisis. Iranian students took Americans hostage taking over the US Embassy with the support of the Ayatollah Khomeini-led government of Iran.

The crisis began on November 4, 1979, and ended with the release of the hostages on January 20, 1981

That was when students, with support from the Ayatollah Khomeini-led government of Iran, held Embassy employees as hostages for 444 days. The crisis began 40 years ago on November 4, 1979, and ended with the release of the hostages on January 20, 1981, the very day of President Ronald Reagans inauguration.

Many people viewed President Carter as weak in his attempts to release the hostages including the failed rescue attempt. President Ronald Reagan of course was suggesting he was going to be taking military action against Iran and that more than likely speed up the release of the hostages.

So, if Anthony Blinken is right is it possible that we will see the hostages held by Hamas released soon let’s pray that that happens.

Also let’s play for President Jimmy Carter and his family.  We also need to pray for California and all that are being impacted by these devastating fires.

President Trump says Canada doesn’t produce anything we need. Of course, they do have some of that heavy oil that our refineries love.  Canada’s Alberta Energy Regulator proudly reported that Alberta oil production was at record 4.197mbpd in November, previous record was 4.187mbpd in December.

While there is a lot of noise in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum status reports at the beginning of the year and at the end of the year one of the concerning narratives that is happening is the low levels of inventory at Cushing OK

And while energy dynamics have shifted a little bit to the Gulf Coast the tightness and Cushing OK probably reflect an underlying tightness in the overall complex. U.S. crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point hit a 10-year low.

Overseas demand is strong So Strong that this week Saudi Aramco raises the official selling price (OSP) for Arab light for Asia by USD 0.60/bbl to USD 1.50/bbl above the benchmark (Oman/Dubai average) for the month of February.

Natural gas still has the potential to explode to the upside as the artic blast continues.  Mixed long-term forecasts for what we face after the blast could present a very interesting opportunity. If we do come in below normal then march Natural gas calls are way undervalued.  We could see a substantial spike in premiums if the cold forecasts win out over the warm ones.

In the near-term Nat gas will face the coldest temperatures since Nat gas spiked last Fox Weather is reporting that Winter Storm Warnings have been issued from the southern Plains to the mid-South and parts of the Ohio Valley, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Little Rock, Arkansas. Meanwhile, Winter Storm Watches extend eastward across the Southeast to southeastern Virginia, the Carolinas and North Georgia, including the Atlanta metro area.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia are also soaring.

Bloomberg Is reporting that a rally in liquefied natural gas has pushed Asian prices to a rare and substantial premium over oil, paving the way for major consumers to shift to cheaper but dirtier fuels.

Bloomberg says that Japan-Korea marker prices for LNG, the Asian benchmark, were as much as 22% more expensive than Brent crude earlier this month on an energy-equivalent basis, according to Bloomberg calculations. Gas prices have risen on cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere and the loss of Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine, increasing competition between European and Asian buyers.

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