Grains Report 11/25/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher last week as tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia once again. The threat of war expanded with the US allowing longer range missiles to be used and as Russia is deploying North Korean soldiers alongside its own in battles. Russia also updated its nuclear use doctrine to include threats against it from the deployment of US missiles against Russian interests and shot seven ICBM missiles into Ukraine late last week. There were reports of stable price last week in Russia and the growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops under good conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 541, 526, and 521 December, with resistance at 559, 565, and 574 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 544, 532, and 527 December, with resistance at 569, 580, and 583 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 575, 565, and 563 December, and resistance is at 597, 603, and 613 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 536,986
: Positions :
: 49,863 134,545 179,968 117,282 96,992 155,519 84,875 502,632 496,380: 34,354 40,605
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,377) :
: 8,442 10,471 3,539 -628 -5,696 3,651 7,725 15,003 16,038: -626 -1,661
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.3 25.1 33.5 21.8 18.1 29.0 15.8 93.6 92.4: 6.4 7.6
: Total Traders: 381 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 103 138 102 99 49 32 319 308:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 277,021
: Positions :
: 26,822 66,775 68,398 62,562 87,413 98,004 32,784 255,786 255,369: 21,235 21,651
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: -11,691) :
: 4,076 4,130 -8,819 -3,149 262 -3,485 -4,564 -11,377 -8,992: -314 -2,700
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 24.1 24.7 22.6 31.6 35.4 11.8 92.3 92.2: 7.7 7.8
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 61 63 77 71 37 23 202 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 83,674 :
: Positions :
: 40,945 17,932 4,424 462 597 8,511 38,513 8,637 4,834 1,856 4,711 :
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 :
: 5,906 422 302 -105 118 -732 6,846 102 837 -527 549 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.9 21.4 5.3 0.6 0.7 10.2 46.0 10.3 5.8 2.2 5.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 120 :
: 54 34 7 . . 8 26 12 15 4 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher last week and the trends are still up on the charts. However, current prices seem to be in a good spot right now with supply and demand seen about even at this time. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely at this time as futures have rallied.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1498, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1543, and 1556 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,999 :
: Positions :
: 7,222 5,184 0 210 0 129 3,963 138 2,035 178 929 :
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 :
: -553 418 0 -14 0 -138 -668 138 10 -533 -12 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.2 43.2 0.0 1.8 0.0 1.1 33.0 1.2 17.0 1.5 7.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 26 14 0 . 0 . 14 . 13 4 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher last week and seems comfortable trading near to 430 December area as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump ha promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA last week. Oats were mixed to higher. The Corn harvest is almost over and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress but it has turned wet in the last couple of weeks. The harvest will be complete once the rain moves out. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brazil and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 454,090 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 422, 425, and 409 December, and resistance is at 433, 435, and 445 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 325, and 314 December, and resistance is at 354, 372, and 384 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,168,691
: Positions :
: 228,331 213,087 628,292 673,166 961,604 463,755 134,405 1,993,544 1,937,388: 175,147 231,302
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,502) :
: -5,334 9,529 -11,580 8,884 7,665 10,785 -889 2,754 4,725: -1,253 -3,224
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 9.8 29.0 31.0 44.3 21.4 6.2 91.9 89.3: 8.1 10.7
: Total Traders: 857 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 136 153 207 398 427 53 30 701 726:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,805 :
: Positions :
: 819 2,525 189 250 0 306 0 0 1,040 7 135 :
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 :
: -171 -302 -15 0 0 -247 0 0 -45 7 77 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.5 66.4 5.0 6.6 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 27.3 0.2 3.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 5 7 . . 0 . 0 0 6 . 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week on ideas of big south American production potential of Soybeans and Trump plans to curb the use of bio fuels order to promote more use of petroleum. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be another detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 170 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. It is currently raining in the Midwest so the last of the harvest will be delayed by at least a few days. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1000, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 285.00, 282.00, and 279.00 December, and resistance is at 293.00, 297.00, and 303.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4140, 4070, and 3950 December, with resistance at 4360, 4450, and 4630 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,169,119
: Positions :
: 107,971 178,666 341,964 450,627 461,489 212,582 103,417 1,113,144 1,085,536: 55,975 83,583
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 57,186) :
: 2,117 10,675 18,951 31,922 17,034 4,781 6,699 57,771 53,359: -585 3,827
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.2 15.3 29.2 38.5 39.5 18.2 8.8 95.2 92.9: 4.8 7.1
: Total Traders: 576 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 143 173 224 231 47 28 476 485:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 662,809
: Positions :
: 81,484 88,014 150,748 206,412 353,662 185,026 44,344 623,670 636,768: 39,138 26,041
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: -11,529) :
: -13,744 8,775 -3,300 6,989 -19,855 -875 2,972 -10,930 -11,408: -600 -121
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 13.3 22.7 31.1 53.4 27.9 6.7 94.1 96.1: 5.9 3.9
: Total Traders: 342 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 73 100 113 99 49 28 301 251:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 715,690
: Positions :
: 75,351 142,338 182,534 241,323 304,499 150,211 50,350 649,418 679,722: 66,272 35,968
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,098) :
: -5,771 23,420 5,055 7,519 -24,082 -2,281 2,392 4,522 6,785: 576 -1,687
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 19.9 25.5 33.7 42.5 21.0 7.0 90.7 95.0: 9.3 5.0
: Total Traders: 349 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 89 100 126 110 40 24 295 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today in response to stronger outside markets. Demand from China has not been good. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was lower along with Soybean Oil. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 578.00, 582.00, and 554.00 January, with resistance at 609.00, 625.00, and 633.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4630, 4530, and 4430 February, with resistance at 4800, 4880, and 5060 February.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 30,628 :
: Positions :
: 27,120 12,176 480 10,472 730 800 1,980 50 348 4,100 1,100 :
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 :
: 760 500 260 -302 -130 -80 404 0 20 360 -720 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 88.5 39.8 1.6 34.2 2.4 2.6 6.5 0.2 1.1 13.4 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 35 :
: 10 8 . 6 5 . . . . 8 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 241,396 :
: Positions :
: 174,587 110,522 6,197 11,419 953 12,647 62,135 24,482 6,092 14,616 14,418 :
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 :
: 7,657 3,315 1,667 1,155 -269 -3,985 2,512 4,519 93 -1,504 -1,754 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 72.3 45.8 2.6 4.7 0.4 5.2 25.7 10.1 2.5 6.1 6.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 316 :
: 56 73 5 4 . 28 52 30 55 74 61 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1155.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1130.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1050.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1010.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1160.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1135.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1055.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1015.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1152.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 952.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 4,950.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 491.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.455)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,133 lots, or 4.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,878 3,902 3,865 3,898 3,879 3,886 7 86,194 178,961
Mar-25 3,884 3,904 3,873 3,900 3,888 3,894 6 4,988 30,645
May-25 3,920 3,945 3,916 3,934 3,929 3,931 2 17,013 69,922
Jul-25 3,949 3,974 3,947 3,966 3,957 3,962 5 919 8,511
Sep-25 3,980 4,006 3,975 3,994 3,988 3,990 2 1,989 13,676
Nov-25 4,001 4,021 4,001 4,010 4,009 4,013 4 30 81
Corn
Turnover: 813,893 lots, or 18.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,190 2,213 2,185 2,195 2,201 2,198 -3 597,081 851,104
Mar-25 2,219 2,234 2,211 2,219 2,222 2,222 0 85,264 369,601
May-25 2,270 2,283 2,261 2,268 2,273 2,271 -2 106,929 298,718
Jul-25 2,296 2,306 2,287 2,294 2,297 2,295 -2 17,991 110,290
Sep-25 2,319 2,330 2,313 2,320 2,321 2,320 -1 4,282 23,008
Nov-25 2,302 2,318 2,302 2,307 2,308 2,310 2 2,346 5,304
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,595,102 lots, or 4.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 2,875 2,898 2,870 2,874 2,893 2,887 -6 1,330 7,991
Jan-25 2,880 2,902 2,871 2,881 2,894 2,889 -5 420,032 1,002,814
Mar-25 2,860 2,886 2,849 2,869 2,873 2,871 -2 66,886 301,864
May-25 2,768 2,798 2,767 2,792 2,791 2,787 -4 970,370 2,104,210
Jul-25 2,770 2,795 2,766 2,789 2,789 2,785 -4 24,699 198,682
Aug-25 2,881 2,907 2,879 2,901 2,903 2,896 -7 8,217 127,370
Sep-25 2,886 2,912 2,882 2,906 2,908 2,899 -9 89,601 450,924
Nov-25 2,902 2,928 2,900 2,920 2,924 2,917 -7 13,967 105,438
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,425,842 lots, or 13.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 9,688 9,848 9,602 9,824 9,692 9,744 52 254 2,040
Jan-25 9,530 9,728 9,448 9,710 9,600 9,598 -2 1,108,914 417,883
Feb-25 9,304 9,502 9,208 9,482 9,368 9,378 10 13,081 15,965
Mar-25 9,122 9,326 9,028 9,312 9,192 9,206 14 2,322 3,692
Apr-25 8,948 9,160 8,864 9,148 9,030 9,030 0 499 476
May-25 8,764 9,000 8,682 8,972 8,864 8,868 4 291,745 237,545
Jun-25 8,566 8,802 8,510 8,802 8,684 8,688 4 110 453
Jul-25 8,366 8,624 8,338 8,624 8,504 8,522 18 88 379
Aug-25 8,228 8,454 8,186 8,406 8,348 8,278 -70 20 82
Sep-25 8,108 8,308 8,010 8,276 8,180 8,198 18 8,720 23,439
Oct-25 7,924 8,162 7,924 8,150 8,104 8,058 -46 27 300
Nov-25 7,712 8,100 7,712 8,068 8,018 7,962 -56 62 99
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 620,064 lots, or 49.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 7,976 8,088 7,968 8,056 8,076 8,042 -34 339 8,180
Jan-25 8,000 8,106 7,972 8,058 8,060 8,044 -16 392,132 407,083
Mar-25 7,910 8,028 7,870 7,992 7,956 7,970 14 6,087 16,704
May-25 7,764 7,892 7,714 7,870 7,806 7,830 24 209,651 460,825
Jul-25 7,614 7,736 7,568 7,716 7,648 7,670 22 207 1,982
Aug-25 7,602 7,724 7,566 7,700 7,630 7,656 26 85 342
Sep-25 7,568 7,680 7,530 7,666 7,590 7,620 30 11,534 48,174
Nov-25 7,574 7,656 7,574 7,642 7,582 7,640 58 29 113
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322