Softs Report 11/25/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week and the trends are now mixed in this market. Support came from a very strong weekly export sales report as some buyers look to cover positions before the tariffs that President Trump is expected to impose. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved but still rather low US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 69.70, 69.40, and 68.40 March, with resistance of 71.40, 72.70 and 73.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 270,216
: Positions :
: 29,334 81,030 59,752 87,160 96,989 79,285 18,674 255,531 256,445: 14,685 13,770
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: -8,985) :
: -3,830 13,027 -2,761 2,097 -18,274 -3,354 906 -7,848 -7,101: -1,137 -1,884
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 30.0 22.1 32.3 35.9 29.3 6.9 94.6 94.9: 5.4 5.1
: Total Traders: 302 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 103 94 65 57 45 25 237 227:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and filled a large chart gap on the weekly charts left by the roll from November to January as the top step month. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 484.00, 481.00, and 470.00 January, with resistance at a 516.00, 522.00, and 528.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,004 :
: Positions :
: 2,320 8,793 590 71 160 4,030 0 3 660 309 2,842 :
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 :
: 124 185 -1 0 14 147 0 0 -171 -22 34 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.8 67.6 4.5 0.5 1.2 31.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 2.4 21.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 11 11 . . . 16 0 . 7 8 9 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply higher last week and made new multi year highs. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops continue. There are reports from Brazil that producers have already sold a lot of Coffee and are holding back on selling more even with good demand. The chart trends are still up in both markets. The harvest in Vietnam is active, but selling has been slow. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 287.55 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 281.00, 284.00, and 279.00 March, and resistance is at 306.00, 312.00 and 318.00 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 4970, 4750, and 46w30 January, with resistance at 5100, 5280, and 5400 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 239,341
: Positions :
: 50,624 9,877 61,396 54,161 151,708 63,211 10,419 229,392 233,400: 9,949 5,941
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,952) :
: 1,145 637 5,384 -3,051 -635 1,677 723 5,156 6,109: 796 -157
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.2 4.1 25.7 22.6 63.4 26.4 4.4 95.8 97.5: 4.2 2.5
: Total Traders: 381 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 121 72 97 83 123 52 21 302 271:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed slightly lower and London was a little higher last week. The current Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts but mixed on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2110, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2260, 2300, and 2340 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 540.00, 536.00, and 529.00 March, with resistance at 581.00, 592.00, and 596.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,032,397
: Positions :
: 108,896 138,572 225,842 369,104 581,090 248,306 36,049 952,148 981,552: 80,249 50,845
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 24,139) :
: 4,318 1,963 -2,902 14,408 22,194 6,248 5,444 22,072 26,699: 2,068 -2,560
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 13.4 21.9 35.8 56.3 24.1 3.5 92.2 95.1: 7.8 4.9
: Total Traders: 232 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 42 76 70 68 40 19 209 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher and at new highs for the move last week. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily and weekly charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana. The Ivory Coast government has now reduced contract offers by about 40% on worries about less production due to too much rain. Ivory Coast port arrivals now total 549,000 tons, from 417,000 tons last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 8750, 8550, and 8110 March, with resistance at 9360, 9480, and 9600 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 7100, 6920, and 6580 March, with resistance at 7680, 7740, and 7600 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 181,052
: Positions :
: 33,864 16,480 47,422 61,063 100,600 26,137 11,076 168,485 175,578: 12,567 5,474
: :
: Changes from: November 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 19,419) :
: 3,872 4,056 8,895 8,373 3,223 -1,316 3,157 19,824 19,331: -405 88
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.7 9.1 26.2 33.7 55.6 14.4 6.1 93.1 97.0: 6.9 3.0
: :
: Total Traders: 166 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 34 55 34 37 34 15 145 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322