Softs Report 11/18/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week on the stronger US Dollar. Trends are down in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate and domestic consumption of goods and services has been the big problem there. Moves to boost consumer buying are hoped for soon. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved but still rather low US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 66.60, 66.00, and 65.40 December, with resistance of 68.40, 69.00 and 70.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 279,200
: Positions :
: 33,164 68,003 62,513 85,063 115,263 82,639 17,768 263,379 263,546: 15,822 15,654
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: -31,988) :
: 1,014 1,706 -20,428 -1,941 -6,438 -10,287 -6,995 -31,642 -32,155: -345 168
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 24.4 22.4 30.5 41.3 29.6 6.4 94.3 94.4: 5.7 5.6
: Total Traders: 287 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 100 94 64 61 45 24 231 223:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week on the roll from November to January contracts, but still finished near the highs of the week at the close on Friday. There is a threat that current tropical storm Sara could become a hurricane and move into Florida. The storm was located in the western Caribbean Sea on Friday. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 465.00, 454.00, and 447.00 January, with resistance at a 491.00, 498.00, and 204.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,892 :
: Positions :
: 2,196 8,608 591 71 146 3,883 0 3 831 332 2,808 :
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 :
: 47 412 23 71 -44 53 0 0 4 -168 149 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.0 66.8 4.6 0.6 1.1 30.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 2.6 21.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 11 10 . . . 19 0 . 13 4 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week even as the US Dollar continued to move higher. Both markets closed at new highs for the move. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops continue. There is also a lot of rain reported now in Vietnam to slow harvest activities there. The chart trends are up again in both markets. The harvest in Vietnam is active, but selling has been slow. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 269.74 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 275.00, 272.00, and 264.00 December, and resistance is at 290.00, 296.00 and 300.00 December. Trends in London are up. Support is at 4560, 4470, and 4340 January, with resistance at 4880, 5100, and 5280 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 233,389
: Positions :
: 49,479 9,240 56,012 57,211 152,342 61,534 9,696 224,236 227,291: 9,153 6,099
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: -24,237) :
: 2,695 -387 -21,998 -3,646 2,245 -1,783 -3,994 -24,733 -24,134: 496 -103
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.2 4.0 24.0 24.5 65.3 26.4 4.2 96.1 97.4: 3.9 2.6
: Total Traders: 377 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 54 103 92 123 52 19 310 272:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week. Unica released new center south Brazil production data on Tuesday, and it was 1.785 million tons, about 24.3% less than last year but stronger than trade expectations. The Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are mixed to down in both markets. Harvest progress is active in Brazil. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2110, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2210, 2260, and 2300 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 540.00, 536.00, and 529.00 March, with resistance at 559.00, 573.00, and 581.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,008,257
: Positions :
: 104,578 136,609 228,744 354,696 558,895 242,058 30,604 930,077 954,853: 78,181 53,405
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: -13,180) :
: -10,341 5,485 1,144 -5,595 -26,445 10,064 4,451 -4,729 -15,365: -8,451 2,185
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 13.5 22.7 35.2 55.4 24.0 3.0 92.2 94.7: 7.8 5.3
: Total Traders: 231 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 44 75 71 68 41 19 209 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week and at new highs for move. Chart trends are up in both markets. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are no estimated at 455,000 tons, up 30% from last year. The Ivory Coast government has now reduced contract offers by about 40% on worries about less production due to too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 7870, 7520, and 7390 December, with resistance at 8900, 8960, and 9020 December. Trends in London are up. Support is at 6240, 6060, and 5940 December, with resistance at 7280, 7340, and 7400 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 161,633
: Positions :
: 29,992 12,423 38,527 52,689 97,377 27,453 7,920 148,661 156,247: 12,972 5,386
: :
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,061) :
: 2,470 212 3,404 -1,084 1,378 -829 -487 3,961 4,506: 1,100 555
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.6 7.7 23.8 32.6 60.2 17.0 4.9 92.0 96.7: 8.0 3.3
: :
: Total Traders: 157 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 32 54 35 35 32 16 141 116:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322