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Phil Flynn

Phil Flynn is writer of The Energy Report, a daily market commentary discussing oil, the Middle East, American government, economics, and their effects on the world's energies markets, as well as other commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (888) 264-5665

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Raising World War Risk. The Energy Report 11/18/2024

By On November 18, 2024 - 8:11 AM · In Market Commentaries, Phil Flynn Energy Report
President Biden seems to want to leave an even bigger mess in Ukraine.  He gave the approval to allow Ukraine to use e U.S.-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia, which revered earlier limitations on the use of those missiles by Ukraine.  Oil that was under pressure after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that he is in no hurry to raise interest rates. Chinese demand concerns continue to overshadow global tight supply and optimistic predictions for the upcoming Thanksgiving travel expectations.
Radio Free Europe reported that The Kremlin has accused U.S. President Joe Biden of adding fuel to the fire and seeking to escalate the conflict in Ukraine by lifting restrictions on long-range weapons. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s comments on November 18 come after reports that Biden has granted Ukraine permission to use U.S. weapons to strike deeper into Russia.
Peskov said “It’s obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps in order to continue fueling the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions.”
One report said that Vladimir Putin Says Russia is now ‘At War’ With NATO After Biden confirmed that long range missile restrictions have been lifted.  He also is going to hold the US responsible.
Oil traders are taking this seriously and watching developments.
According to AAA gasoline prices on the national average are right around $3.70 a gallon the hopes that gasoline will get below $3 a gallon on a national average or looking a little bit less likely as gasoline inventories plummet and demand is expected to break records for the upcoming Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Last Week the EIA reported that US gasoline inventories were at their lowest in two years. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that gasoline stocks fell to 206.9 million barrels, which was a 4.4-million-barrel decrease from the previous week. This was lower than the 600,000-barrel increase that analysts had expected.

Now AAA has come up with their latest prediction of how many folks will go over the river and through the woods to see Grandma by plane trade and automobile AAA that a record 80 million hit the roads, catch flights and board cruises and that is 1.7 million more people that will travel this year from Tuesday, Nov. 26 to Monday, Dec. 2, compared to last year.

The weekly chart on oil seems to be trying to bottom that we continue to face headwinds with uncertainty surrounding the stock market war risk continues to rise in the market seems to put that on the back burner but inventories should be tight once again as we expect to see crude oil inventories fall this week by 3,000,000 barrels we expect the products like gasoline to fall by 2,000,000 barrels and the distillate inventories to fall by 3,000,000 barrels refinery runs will be up 0.5.
Natural gas has given him a little bit of a bounce but seems to be stuck in a tight trading range John Kemp from Kemp energy said that European gas futures price for deliveries at the heart of winter 2024/25 have climbed to the highest level for almost a year as the heating season has got off to a relatively cold start across much of Northwest Europe.
Futures prices for deliveries in January 2025 have averaged almost €43 per megawatt-hour so far in November 2024 up from a recent low of €32 in February 2024 and the highest since €51 in November 2023. Frankfurt has experienced 286 heating degree days so far this heating season compared with just 207 at the same point in 2023 and 246 in 2022

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Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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