Grains Report 11/18/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 18
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 18, 2024 6 Oct 31, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower last week on reports of deteriorating price in Russia and improved growing conditions in the US. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops under good conditions. Russian export offers were under pressure all week. Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and as demand has waned. Ideas are that Russian exporters are trying to maintain export volumes at the expense of price
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 526, 521, and 514 December, with resistance at 546, 558, and 565 December. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 527, 520, and 514 December, with resistance at 549, 562, and 569 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 563, 556, and 550 December, and resistance is at 580, 595, and 603 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 522,608
: Positions :
: 41,421 124,075 176,430 117,909 102,688 151,868 77,149 487,628 480,342: 34,980 42,267
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 7,950) :
: -2,126 14,142 1,088 14,113 -6,981 -5,652 -1,494 7,422 6,754: 527 1,196
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 23.7 33.8 22.6 19.6 29.1 14.8 93.3 91.9: 6.7 8.1
: Total Traders: 382 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 110 135 100 103 48 31 314 314:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 288,712
: Positions :
: 22,746 62,645 77,217 65,711 87,151 101,489 37,349 267,163 264,361: 21,549 24,351
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,585) :
: -4,146 9,197 437 3,371 -5,895 1,732 -548 1,395 3,191: 2,189 394
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 21.7 26.7 22.8 30.2 35.2 12.9 92.5 91.6: 7.5 8.4
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 44 67 59 76 73 38 22 195 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 77,781 :
: Positions :
: 35,040 17,509 4,123 567 479 9,243 31,667 8,535 3,997 2,383 4,162 :
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 :
: 222 -4,084 192 240 307 39 5,355 -1,334 936 -113 49 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 45.0 22.5 5.3 0.7 0.6 11.9 40.7 11.0 5.1 3.1 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 122 :
: 54 35 6 . . 8 30 12 10 9 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week and at new weekly highs. The trends are still turning up on the charts. The US Dollar was higher, and this did not help demand ideas. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year, but the harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely the farther the market moves above 1500 January.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1457, 1445, and 1434 January and resistance is at 1513, 1528, and 1538 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,881 :
: Positions :
: 7,775 4,767 0 224 0 267 4,631 0 2,025 711 940 :
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 :
: 568 -333 -76 6 0 -106 1,121 0 294 85 448 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.4 37.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 2.1 36.0 0.0 15.7 5.5 7.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 25 12 0 . 0 . 17 0 15 7 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week, but strong buying emerged on Friday as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong, but the US Dollar has also turned strong and has hurt demand ideas. Oats were a little lower last week. The Corn harvest is almost over and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress and this week looks to feature off and on showers over the middle of the week. The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brazil and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 415, 409, and 403 December, and resistance is at 427, 433, and 435 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 345, 336, and 330 December, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 384 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,167,189
: Positions :
: 233,665 203,558 639,872 664,282 953,939 452,970 135,294 1,990,789 1,932,663: 176,400 234,526
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 21,441) :
: 15,638 -38,147 -5,911 10,063 89,805 12,145 -21,438 31,935 24,308: -10,494 -2,867
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 9.4 29.5 30.7 44.0 20.9 6.2 91.9 89.2: 8.1 10.8
: Total Traders: 882 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 165 144 220 405 429 53 33 732 736:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,212 :
: Positions :
: 990 2,827 204 250 0 553 0 0 1,085 0 58 :
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 :
: 251 -241 15 0 0 -332 0 0 198 0 -24 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.5 67.1 4.8 5.9 0.0 13.1 0.0 0.0 25.8 0.0 1.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 21 :
: 6 7 . . 0 4 0 0 7 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week as Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 261,264 tons of US Soybeans, Philippines bought 135,000 tons of US Soybean Meal, and India bought 30,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 986, 977, and 974 January, and resistance is at 1014, 1020, and 1030 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 285.00, 282.00, and 279.00 December, and resistance is at 293.00, 297.00, and 303.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4440, 4350, and 4260 December, with resistance at 4640, 4770, and 4920 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,111,933
: Positions :
: 105,853 167,991 323,014 418,705 444,455 207,801 96,717 1,055,373 1,032,177: 56,560 79,756
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 24,359) :
: 8,635 -6,141 3,672 11,499 23,361 1,596 4,759 25,402 25,650: -1,044 -1,292
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 15.1 29.0 37.7 40.0 18.7 8.7 94.9 92.8: 5.1 7.2
: Total Traders: 590 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 146 168 229 254 45 26 473 502:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 674,338
: Positions :
: 95,228 79,239 154,048 199,423 373,517 185,901 41,372 634,600 648,176: 39,738 26,163
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 44,719) :
: 4,236 1,436 16,226 6,396 25,189 14,072 1,560 40,931 44,411: 3,788 308
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 11.8 22.8 29.6 55.4 27.6 6.1 94.1 96.1: 5.9 3.9
: Total Traders: 348 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 72 104 108 98 51 27 303 254:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 710,592
: Positions :
: 81,122 118,918 177,479 233,804 328,581 152,492 47,959 644,896 672,937: 65,696 37,655
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 41,350) :
: 1,373 10,949 15,582 19,197 7,490 2,698 5,426 38,849 39,446: 2,501 1,904
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.4 16.7 25.0 32.9 46.2 21.5 6.7 90.8 94.7: 9.2 5.3
: Total Traders: 347 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 88 99 127 111 42 24 298 267:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower last week. It was lower today on weak demand ideas. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was a little lower along with other vegetable oils and oilseeds markets. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 625.00, 617.00, and 609.00 January, with resistance at 665.00, 673.00, and 685.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4960, 4770, and 4720 February, with resistance at 5140, 5200, and 5260 February.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 30,518 :
: Positions :
: 26,360 11,676 220 10,774 860 880 1,576 50 328 3,740 1,820 :
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 :
: -186 -266 0 240 140 10 40 -40 -90 -280 -980 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 86.4 38.3 0.7 35.3 2.8 2.9 5.2 0.2 1.1 12.3 6.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 37 :
: 11 9 . 7 6 . . . . 9 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 233,978 :
: Positions :
: 166,930 107,207 4,530 10,264 1,222 16,632 59,622 19,963 5,999 16,120 16,172 :
: Changes from: November 5, 2024 :
: 2,140 215 148 -561 282 1,450 3,610 2,368 -827 -11 4,732 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 71.3 45.8 1.9 4.4 0.5 7.1 25.5 8.5 2.6 6.9 6.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 318 :
: 54 73 6 . 5 35 45 29 50 81 58 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1182.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1177.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1160.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1070.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 1015.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1187.50 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1182.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1165.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1075.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1020.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1150.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 945.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,080.00 -90.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 502.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.477)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,636 lots, or 5.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,863 3,890 3,848 3,883 3,894 3,870 -24 109,522 194,545
Mar-25 3,881 3,898 3,865 3,894 3,909 3,882 -27 6,499 30,244
May-25 3,921 3,942 3,914 3,934 3,957 3,928 -29 20,390 63,933
Jul-25 3,954 3,974 3,947 3,969 3,988 3,960 -28 1,490 7,939
Sep-25 3,985 4,003 3,976 3,997 4,015 3,992 -23 2,720 12,585
Nov-25 4,011 4,028 4,011 4,022 4,073 4,021 -52 15 61
Corn
Turnover: 820,673 lots, or 18.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,185 2,216 2,180 2,209 2,187 2,201 14 632,898 908,461
Mar-25 2,208 2,238 2,204 2,230 2,212 2,222 10 70,667 347,250
May-25 2,259 2,287 2,255 2,280 2,262 2,273 11 84,153 272,734
Jul-25 2,287 2,313 2,283 2,307 2,291 2,301 10 21,792 102,914
Sep-25 2,310 2,333 2,307 2,329 2,314 2,323 9 6,347 21,118
Nov-25 2,297 2,314 2,288 2,308 2,297 2,302 5 4,816 3,102
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,725,710 lots, or 49.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 2,928 2,962 2,915 2,961 2,955 2,938 -17 24,903 25,127
Jan-25 2,930 2,962 2,920 2,959 2,958 2,942 -16 559,683 1,154,519
Mar-25 2,930 2,932 2,900 2,921 2,930 2,917 -13 51,844 301,940
May-25 2,822 2,834 2,811 2,821 2,851 2,821 -30 935,137 1,880,477
Jul-25 2,819 2,830 2,808 2,818 2,841 2,817 -24 30,953 195,156
Aug-25 2,930 2,949 2,923 2,937 2,956 2,936 -20 12,089 120,300
Sep-25 2,933 2,953 2,926 2,942 2,961 2,939 -22 97,251 390,310
Nov-25 2,951 2,977 2,944 2,957 2,996 2,956 -40 13,850 23,989
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,610,703 lots, or 15.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 10,230 10,242 9,902 9,930 10,046 10,018 -28 6,717 3,522
Jan-25 10,178 10,186 9,840 9,878 9,986 9,992 6 1,330,735 470,471
Feb-25 9,912 9,928 9,660 9,708 9,746 9,776 30 12,609 13,260
Mar-25 9,686 9,708 9,464 9,508 9,532 9,586 54 2,021 2,831
Apr-25 9,542 9,546 9,314 9,352 9,350 9,458 108 231 431
May-25 9,364 9,394 9,150 9,192 9,192 9,274 82 247,029 211,980
Jun-25 9,200 9,200 8,964 9,000 8,994 9,074 80 143 452
Jul-25 9,036 9,036 8,754 8,778 8,798 8,850 52 138 357
Aug-25 8,736 8,768 8,574 8,610 8,598 8,672 74 51 85
Sep-25 8,522 8,584 8,420 8,460 8,390 8,488 98 10,923 19,217
Oct-25 8,394 8,430 8,300 8,320 8,282 8,356 74 86 273
Nov-25 8,210 8,292 8,190 8,214 8,116 8,238 122 20 26
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 792,673 lots, or 64.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 8,332 8,332 8,108 8,108 8,274 8,216 -58 3,816 9,185
Jan-25 8,352 8,366 8,118 8,120 8,286 8,228 -58 591,702 486,277
Mar-25 8,196 8,210 7,994 8,004 8,150 8,082 -68 5,896 14,371
May-25 8,050 8,066 7,866 7,868 7,994 7,958 -36 176,236 444,647
Jul-25 7,850 7,870 7,710 7,718 7,818 7,752 -66 223 1,971
Aug-25 7,858 7,858 7,696 7,696 7,790 7,734 -56 115 325
Sep-25 7,778 7,800 7,626 7,628 7,722 7,684 -38 14,647 40,297
Nov-25 7,756 7,756 7,610 7,622 7,682 7,660 -22 38 36
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322