Grains Report 10/22/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 21
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Oct 21, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 17, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/17/2024 10/10/2024 10/19/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 122 0 4,920 643
CORN 999,811 506,616 472,413 5,794,869 4,436,708
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 192 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 148 3,794
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 47,472 80,585 3,484 461,287 384,856
SOYBEANS 2,433,530 1,907,464 2,628,679 7,896,411 8,132,429
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 2,421
WHEAT 268,375 380,134 169,480 9,260,620 6,924,047
Total 3,749,188 2,874,921 3,274,056 23,418,447 19,884,922
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 94 88 89 91
Cotton Harvested 44 34 39 38
Corn Mature 98 94 97 95
Corn Harvested 65 47 55 52
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 95 90 96 92
Soybeans Harvsted 81 67 72 67
Sorghum Mature 95 89 95 94
Sorghum Harvsted 64 53 63 61
Peanuts Harvested 44 30 51 54
Sugarbeets Harvested 71 42 66 63
Sunflowers Harvested 30 14 23 27
Rice Harvested 96 91 90 92
Winter Wheat Planted 73 64 74 76
Winter Wheat Emerged 46 35 49 50

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 18 30 31 6
Cotton Last Week 11 23 32 29 5
Cotton Last Year 24 19 28 24 5

Peanuts This Week 2 9 38 46 5
Peanuts Last Week 2 9 38 46 7
Peanuts Last Year 4 9 39 43 5

Pastures and Ranges This Week 22 26 29 19 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 21 28 29 19 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 18 22 29 27 4

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets mostly higher yesterday, but nearby months in Chicago closed slightly lower. The dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 564, 561, and 556 December, with resistance at 596, 598, and 611 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 579, 571, and 566 December, with resistance at 608, 617, and 623 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 611, 604, and 595 December, and resistance is at 632, 637, and 646 December.

RICE: Rice closed higher yesterday and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest is wrapping up this week for most US producers.
General Comments:
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1475, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1524, 1532, and 1540 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher with nearby months closing firm on the spreads with active harvest conditions in the Midwest. The market feels short Corn with the spreads as strong as they were. Oats were higher. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 8% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week. Most producers have concentrated on the Soybeans harvest and are turning attention to Corn with Soybeans mostly in the bin for a lot of them. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already among the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 359,500 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 399, 397, and 387 December, and resistance is at 413, 420, and 424 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 377, 370, and 357 December, and resistance is at 390, 394, and 397 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday and the carry spreads were firm as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. It might be an indication that an uptrend is about to start. Ideas are that a potential Trump presidency would hurt trade potential with many countries, but especially China. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy last week with the country returning to work. Many had expected some important new moves to support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans ha rest but now are almost done and are switching to Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains have appeared and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 968, 961, and 948 November, and resistance is at 1012, 1025, and 1039 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 307.00, 300.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 323.00, 327.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4140, 4070, and 4020 December, with resistance at 4330, 4430, and 4530 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on strength in outside markets and on reports from private sources of good demand. Canola was a little higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 595.00, 588.00, and 572.00 November, with resistance at 627.00, 633.00, and 668.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4070 January, with resistance at 4440, 4480, and 4540 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1085.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1075.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1045.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1015.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 985.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1090.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1080.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1050.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1020.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 990.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1085.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 920.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4,490.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 388.00 +08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.324)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 87,506 lots, or 3.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,929 3,942 3,922 3,936 3,934 3,933 -1 1,112 7,016
Jan-25 3,961 3,981 3,956 3,971 3,973 3,969 -4 75,010 183,298
Mar-25 3,963 3,972 3,953 3,967 3,964 3,963 -1 4,415 31,058
May-25 3,983 3,996 3,983 3,996 3,990 3,989 -1 6,101 28,824
Jul-25 3,999 4,009 3,998 4,009 4,006 4,003 -3 489 5,422
Sep-25 4,017 4,025 4,014 4,024 4,022 4,019 -3 379 5,948
Corn
Turnover: 649,306 lots, or 14.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,135 2,145 2,124 2,141 2,146 2,135 -11 68,204 83,621
Jan-25 2,168 2,180 2,161 2,179 2,179 2,170 -9 477,647 834,882
Mar-25 2,186 2,194 2,177 2,193 2,190 2,185 -5 37,750 279,790
May-25 2,233 2,247 2,228 2,245 2,241 2,235 -6 51,469 136,953
Jul-25 2,251 2,264 2,247 2,261 2,261 2,253 -8 12,044 79,222
Sep-25 2,272 2,278 2,265 2,277 2,273 2,270 -3 2,192 7,907
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,211,359 lots, or 35.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,929 2,942 2,907 2,921 2,936 2,922 -14 31,115 64,157
Dec-24 2,989 2,998 2,968 2,983 3,002 2,982 -20 12,058 196,872
Jan-25 2,980 2,991 2,964 2,978 2,983 2,976 -7 774,124 1,521,600
Mar-25 2,907 2,918 2,890 2,903 2,917 2,904 -13 16,351 156,147
May-25 2,784 2,801 2,778 2,791 2,788 2,787 -1 315,151 1,353,940
Jul-25 2,780 2,797 2,776 2,789 2,783 2,785 2 7,469 135,330
Aug-25 2,871 2,886 2,865 2,876 2,869 2,873 4 6,632 78,738
Sep-25 2,867 2,884 2,862 2,874 2,867 2,870 3 48,459 192,956
Palm Oil
Turnover: 732,150 lots, or 65.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,980 9,064 8,948 9,062 8,906 9,004 98 2,983 2,897
Dec-24 8,966 9,062 8,924 9,060 8,892 8,988 96 6,736 7,378
Jan-25 8,896 8,996 8,862 8,996 8,814 8,920 106 659,504 515,363
Feb-25 8,828 8,906 8,792 8,906 8,722 8,832 110 88 388
Mar-25 8,746 8,842 8,728 8,842 8,666 8,780 114 284 3,255
Apr-25 8,688 8,758 8,664 8,758 8,586 8,700 114 47 392
May-25 8,584 8,686 8,570 8,684 8,524 8,626 102 61,948 147,135
Jun-25 8,500 8,564 8,500 8,564 8,420 8,528 108 24 188
Jul-25 8,380 8,454 8,368 8,452 8,320 8,418 98 43 251
Aug-25 8,284 8,352 8,280 8,346 8,236 8,328 92 8 55
Sep-25 8,220 8,286 8,200 8,272 8,174 8,252 78 480 3,047
Oct-25 8,196 8,218 8,184 8,218 8,174 8,196 22 5 3
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 509,499 lots, or 41.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,062 8,124 8,062 8,114 8,044 8,096 52 4,046 10,667
Dec-24 8,192 8,268 8,192 8,262 8,178 8,236 58 4,975 10,552
Jan-25 8,226 8,298 8,220 8,290 8,206 8,262 56 405,571 699,120
Mar-25 8,050 8,110 8,038 8,104 8,032 8,074 42 403 4,516
May-25 7,842 7,912 7,836 7,908 7,832 7,878 46 92,131 359,877
Jul-25 7,688 7,720 7,668 7,714 7,666 7,700 34 341 1,514
Aug-25 7,668 7,712 7,668 7,698 7,650 7,694 44 84 213
Sep-25 7,658 7,706 7,636 7,706 7,636 7,672 36 1,948 7,871
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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