AgMaster Report 10/22/2024

NOV BEANS

After a $1.00 drop (1065-965) since 10/1, Nov Beans have successfully challenged the August lows & held due to plethora of friendly fundamentals including – rabid demand in the past 3 mkt days from Fri Sales, Mon Inspections & numerous flash sales – China’s lowering of their interest rates by .25% & the gradual easing of harvest pressure! It appears the harvest lows were established early in late August & confirmed in the last few days when the $1.00 break uncovered substantial demand at the 960 level! With US beans the cheapest around, we expect solid demand to continue to emerge as harvest closes out! The mkt may pause its rally in front of the Election 11-5-24!

 

DEC CORN

Dec Corn has been bolstered at the $4.00 mark by a flurry of export activity including last Friday’s 2.23mmt, Mondays 991,000mt & 6 flash sales in the past 2 days! It’s really not surprising – considering US Corn is the best deal around! As well, harvest is 65% in (avg-52) long past the half-way mark when hedge pressure begins to subside! Finally, the Chinese drop in their interest rates is supportive – implying an improvement in exports down the road! The Macro environment in the US has improved markedly when the Fed lowered its IR by .5% a few weeks ago! This enhanced both domestic & foreign demand for US Corn! The DJI is well over 43,000 a new record – & is positive for all commodities as a rising tide float all boats!

 

DEC WHT

Additional precip across the Southern Plains – coupled with Russia’s continued dominance in the World Wht Mkt has kept Dec Wht under wraps! Winter wheat is 73% in (76) but today, solid rallies in corn & beans are lending spill-over support to Dec Wht!

 

DEC CAT

Dec Cat’s 6 wk upsurge since Labor Day looked to be running out of gas – despite a strong cut-out! But China’s beef imports for September were down 11%! However, today the mkt is challenging its Oct highs! Demand normally lost after LD W/E, has been replaced due to a resurgent US economy which has been energized by the Fed’s recent rate of .5%! The DJI has validated that new energy by surging to new all-time highs over 43,000!

 

DEC HOGS

 Strong export demand & lower supply numbers are continuing to support Dec Hogs in its relentless charge on the upside since Mid-Aug! (63.50-79.50)! Even though the grilling season demand is over, domestic & export demand are flowing – as the US economy is thriving – setting new highs almost daily! The mkt might take a brief hiatus as it awaits the election results on 11-5-24 & tries to suss them out!  

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337