Softs Report 10/22/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday as export demand remains weak but improvement is possible. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate has been the big problem there. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 70.20, 69.30, and 67.50 December, with resistance of 72.70, 73.50 and 74.10 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 94 88 89 91
Cotton Harvested 44 34 39 38
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 15 18 30 31 6
Cotton Last Week 11 23 32 29 5
Cotton Last Year 24 19 28 24 5

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher yesterday as another hurricane came close to the state. USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 18 million in its previous report and 20 million last year. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil has been hot and dry. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 474.00, 458.00, and 454.00 November, with resistance at a 509.00, 512.00, and 518.00 November

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower, and the chart trends are down in both markets as the harvest in Vietnam becomes more active. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions. Losses are still possible in Brazil and also Vietnam from previous bad weather.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 248.05 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 249.00, 242.00, and 236.00 December, and resistance is at 265.00, 268.00 and 271.00 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4650, 4540, and 4450 November, with resistance at 4900, 5000, and 5100 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on reports of better rains that started early in the month and variable world petroleum prices. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2170, 2100, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2290, 2340, and 2360 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 555.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 586.00, 590.00, and 593.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed higher yesterday on currency considerations. The weather is playing a price supporting role and the ongoing harvest keeping prices weaker. It had been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bring concerns that pod disease could develop. The current rally attempt is not expected to go very far as the harvest has started in West Africa. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to keep conditions too wet in West Africa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7310, 7230, and 7060 December, with resistance at 8170, 8240, and 8800 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5490, 5350, and 5130 December, with resistance at 5720, 6060, and 6250 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322