Grains Report 09/30/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 01, 2024 11 Jul 08, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed a little higher last week. World prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. USDA will update production later today in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 576, 564, and 561 December, with resistance at 599, 604, and 617 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 559, 539, and 527 December, with resistance at 591, 604, and 617 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 602, 595, and 580 December, and resistance is at 627, 638, and 646 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 422,881
: Positions :
: 52,663 117,556 111,746 83,475 104,411 140,936 50,869 388,820 384,583: 34,061 38,298
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,467) :
: -186 527 -1,705 1,061 4,171 3,573 773 2,743 3,766: 1,724 701
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 27.8 26.4 19.7 24.7 33.3 12.0 91.9 90.9: 8.1 9.1
: Total Traders: 366 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 103 121 92 104 47 29 294 292:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 252,403
: Positions :
: 36,467 62,046 50,162 57,576 85,131 86,816 33,956 231,021 231,295: 21,381 21,108
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: 7,057) :
: -548 2,333 1,671 5,791 -1,113 -2,236 3,917 4,678 6,808: 2,379 249
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 24.6 19.9 22.8 33.7 34.4 13.5 91.5 91.6: 8.5 8.4
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 54 55 79 85 38 20 198 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 73,618 :
: Positions :
: 34,574 24,141 3,161 353 200 8,495 24,159 8,493 2,728 1,938 3,842 :
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 :
: -1,645 -747 -95 -4 -1 -1,149 -2,027 1,990 -50 288 509 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 47.0 32.8 4.3 0.5 0.3 11.5 32.8 11.5 3.7 2.6 5.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 108 :
: 47 36 6 . 4 8 21 10 11 5 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week on weather concerns. A hurricane came late in the week in the southern US and hit rice areas in the northern Delta with a lot of wind and rain. There was concern to damage to unharvested crops in the region. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1479, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1533, 15a57, and 1562 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,111 :
: Positions :
: 5,447 6,821 189 0 0 767 1,233 1 1,535 85 775 :
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 :
: -255 1,138 125 -61 0 165 -717 1 269 -4 -36 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.9 67.5 1.9 0.0 0.0 7.6 12.2 0.0 15.2 0.8 7.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 25 17 . 0 0 6 8 . 11 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher and just off the highs of the day and the week. It remains dry in the Midwest, although there are forecasts for some showers and cooler temperatures in the Midwest this weekend. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is under way. Yield reports heard so far show strong but not spectacular production potential for the national crop. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 409, 401, and 397 December, and resistance is at 419, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 380, 374, and 357 December, and resistance is at 387, 404, and 410 December

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,832,471
: Positions :
: 156,493 287,826 573,708 508,662 584,738 414,470 154,196 1,653,333 1,600,469: 179,138 232,002
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: 35,428) :
: -12,220 -13,294 37,058 8,308 16,085 181 -6,964 33,326 32,884: 2,102 2,544
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 15.7 31.3 27.8 31.9 22.6 8.4 90.2 87.3: 9.8 12.7
: Total Traders: 800 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 151 144 190 343 345 51 31 649 624:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,723 :
: Positions :
: 653 2,117 277 250 35 534 199 0 598 189 121 :
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 :
: -22 225 -10 0 6 88 64 0 271 60 20 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.5 56.9 7.4 6.7 0.9 14.3 5.3 0.0 16.1 5.1 3.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 6 6 . . . 4 . 0 5 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher last week after a sharp rally on Friday that appeared to be led by fund short covering tied to positioning for the end of the month and quarter today. Soybean Meal closed the week with very slight gains. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small beans in the pods although there have been spotty showers more recently. Dry weather is expected to return this week. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. There are some forecasts for showers to return to central and northern areas in a couple of weeks. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but the country will be on holiday this week so no new demand is expected.
Overnight News: China bought 116,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1031, 1018, and 1002 November, and resistance is at 1087, 1097, and 1114 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 327.00, 320.00, and 314.00 October, and resistance is at 347.00, 353.00, and 356.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4180, 4060, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4480, 4520, and 4800 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,098,571
: Positions :
: 53,152 142,061 334,277 444,696 434,623 214,767 107,482 1,046,892 1,018,443: 51,679 80,128
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: -1,475) :
: 6,808 -30,294 -9,792 -10,217 39,064 9,031 -2,089 -4,170 -3,112: 2,695 1,636
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.8 12.9 30.4 40.5 39.6 19.5 9.8 95.3 92.7: 4.7 7.3
: Total Traders: 593 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 170 180 209 236 53 29 482 499:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 587,272
: Positions :
: 80,333 109,502 127,169 190,112 283,394 158,041 40,727 555,655 560,793: 31,617 26,479
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: -18,378) :
: -796 -22,522 -8,001 -17,200 15,966 7,554 -2,566 -18,443 -17,124: 64 -1,255
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 18.6 21.7 32.4 48.3 26.9 6.9 94.6 95.5: 5.4 4.5
: Total Traders: 335 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 83 102 103 97 43 28 274 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 574,726
: Positions :
: 90,229 64,548 128,721 163,424 323,215 139,256 30,401 521,630 546,884: 53,096 27,842
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: 240) :
: 13,253 -7,496 -427 -17,411 9,428 2,263 1,018 -2,322 2,523: 2,561 -2,283
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.7 11.2 22.4 28.4 56.2 24.2 5.3 90.8 95.2: 9.2 4.8
: Total Traders: 337 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 70 96 121 117 45 26 286 263:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on Friday, but higher for the week on ideas of better demand from India and reduced production potential as the monsoon rains arrive. Futures were lower today on long liquidation and currency concerns. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil. Canola was lower early yesterday as long liquidation hit the pit but recovered with the price action in Chicago to close a little higher. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 588.00, 572.00, and 565.00 November, with resistance at 619.00, 622.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4020, 3950, and 3920 December, with resistance at 4200, 4260, and 4320 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 38,894 :
: Positions :
: 30,234 13,960 480 12,632 660 840 595 420 365 4,702 5,875 :
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 :
: -3,000 150 0 -3,330 120 0 360 -80 80 -130 -500 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 77.7 35.9 1.2 32.5 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.9 12.1 15.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 35 :
: 11 11 . 6 . . . . . 10 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 300,545 :
: Positions :
: 244,059 93,035 2,876 13,743 1,378 6,045 137,357 19,461 7,250 14,743 18,186 :
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 :
: -19,840 -9,011 -439 -1,754 -307 1,978 -8,998 1,537 428 1,778 -5 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.2 31.0 1.0 4.6 0.5 2.0 45.7 6.5 2.4 4.9 6.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 371 :
: 69 79 4 7 6 15 82 22 54 103 69 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1050.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1030.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1025.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 992.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 962.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1055.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1035.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1030.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 997.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 967.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1065.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 900.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,170.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 342.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.119)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 154,929 lots, or 6.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 4,228 4,247 4,198 4,219 4,265 4,220 -45 8,203 12,362
Jan-25 4,167 4,237 4,163 4,220 4,208 4,200 -8 132,345 151,513
Mar-25 4,128 4,171 4,100 4,148 4,134 4,129 -5 6,486 22,085
May-25 4,163 4,219 4,150 4,194 4,177 4,180 3 5,326 13,222
Jul-25 4,140 4,182 4,119 4,163 4,140 4,145 5 1,323 3,271
Sep-25 4,136 4,180 4,121 4,162 4,138 4,144 6 1,246 3,282
Corn
Turnover: 1,074,695 lots, or 23.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,179 2,227 2,171 2,225 2,171 2,205 34 525,251 361,578
Jan-25 2,193 2,249 2,192 2,247 2,192 2,226 34 402,244 550,629
Mar-25 2,212 2,253 2,206 2,250 2,203 2,233 30 68,088 189,965
May-25 2,253 2,312 2,249 2,308 2,251 2,278 27 57,352 99,203
Jul-25 2,270 2,325 2,263 2,321 2,264 2,293 29 20,399 42,098
Sep-25 2,277 2,342 2,276 2,340 2,275 2,315 40 1,361 2,980
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,291,566 lots, or 70.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,062 3,152 3,053 3,123 3,070 3,101 31 124,548 283,271
Dec-24 3,090 3,181 3,081 3,155 3,093 3,131 38 12,708 123,089
Jan-25 3,085 3,177 3,075 3,150 3,089 3,127 38 1,579,907 1,342,957
Mar-25 3,000 3,091 2,992 3,072 3,002 3,050 48 35,306 115,090
May-25 2,885 2,945 2,878 2,940 2,887 2,916 29 471,384 1,121,373
Jul-25 2,873 2,926 2,869 2,925 2,881 2,899 18 17,804 105,125
Aug-25 2,956 3,017 2,955 3,017 2,971 2,987 16 3,501 47,011
Sep-25 2,938 3,007 2,934 3,001 2,947 2,964 17 46,408 66,357
Palm Oil
Turnover: 781,421 lots, or 66.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 8,536 8,556 8,408 8,496 8,566 8,498 -68 326 830
Nov-24 8,588 8,712 8,486 8,624 8,638 8,592 -46 16,673 12,067
Dec-24 8,578 8,692 8,466 8,592 8,630 8,570 -60 1,019 558
Jan-25 8,510 8,660 8,430 8,568 8,594 8,532 -62 704,928 489,280
Feb-25 8,540 8,554 8,396 8,474 8,540 8,496 -44 108 308
Mar-25 8,424 8,476 8,288 8,396 8,462 8,386 -76 242 3,435
Apr-25 8,290 8,334 8,204 8,334 8,398 8,284 -114 112 392
May-25 8,206 8,296 8,116 8,226 8,290 8,198 -92 57,790 122,807
Jun-25 8,084 8,136 8,024 8,122 8,216 8,090 -126 40 155
Jul-25 8,028 8,108 7,942 8,038 8,110 8,010 -100 36 155
Aug-25 7,908 7,938 7,908 7,938 7,974 7,920 -54 3 34
Sep-25 7,818 7,940 7,800 7,900 7,910 7,856 -54 144 299
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 548,923 lots, or 44.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 7,946 8,062 7,920 8,002 8,002 7,978 -24 12,691 28,462
Dec-24 8,054 8,168 8,048 8,114 8,118 8,098 -20 3,834 6,978
Jan-25 8,086 8,194 8,070 8,148 8,150 8,114 -36 450,264 621,008
Mar-25 7,922 8,018 7,922 7,984 8,012 7,966 -46 328 4,745
May-25 7,730 7,816 7,704 7,770 7,794 7,746 -48 81,053 275,292
Jul-25 7,582 7,674 7,572 7,622 7,674 7,614 -60 118 1,101
Aug-25 7,650 7,658 7,632 7,640 7,712 7,646 -66 26 191
Sep-25 7,642 7,966 7,600 7,654 7,670 7,644 -26 609 989
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322