Softs Report 09/30/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week as continued stressful weather was seen in the south. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 71.50, 70.20, and 69.30 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 276,615
: Positions :
: 25,307 62,240 73,787 76,269 109,807 85,614 17,583 260,976 263,417: 15,639 13,198
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: -1,284) :
: -1,538 -11,170 1,630 -4,186 9,031 2,879 -510 -1,215 -1,020: -69 -264
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 22.5 26.7 27.6 39.7 31.0 6.4 94.3 95.2: 5.7 4.8
: Total Traders: 303 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 92 95 65 63 48 20 249 218:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again last week as the hurricane hit Florida but missed most production areas. A new tropical system is a category 4 storm but moved very quickly north. The northern half of the state was the most affected. A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry. Ideas are that demand has suffered recently with the move to extremely high prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 467.00, 453.00, and 438.00 November, with resistance at a 491.00, 487.00, and 506.00 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,826 :
: Positions :
: 1,336 7,322 766 0 220 3,950 270 80 971 522 3,159 :
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 :
: 2 -248 -32 0 62 194 -66 39 13 20 -9 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 57.1 6.0 0.0 1.7 30.8 2.1 0.6 7.6 4.1 24.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 9 9 4 0 . 23 . 4 10 8 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were higher last week and both markets made new contract highs on the daily charts and New York made new highs on the weekly charts on Thursday as the dry Brazil and Vietnam weather patterns remained the main focus. More reports of dry weather that could be hurting production potential had been supporting futures in both markets. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. It is still dry there.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 262.00, 256.00, and 248.00 December, and resistance is at 278.00, 284.00 and 290.00 December. Trends in London are up. Support is at 5280, 5010, and 4910 November, with resistance at 5600, 5660, and 5720 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 261,626
: Positions :
: 54,518 12,869 70,519 61,237 160,350 65,217 12,501 251,492 256,241: 10,135 5,386
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,338) :
: -1,979 3 2,358 3,314 3,112 481 53 4,173 5,526: 1,165 -188
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.8 4.9 27.0 23.4 61.3 24.9 4.8 96.1 97.9: 3.9 2.1
: Total Traders: 384 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 122 70 108 92 124 52 21 311 284:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed a little higher and London closed lower last week. New York failed to hold at new contract highs and London could not make new contract highs set early in the week. More reports of burning crops in Brazil and on dry conditions seen generally in Brazil continued to support both markets overall. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. Thailand now expects to produce 20.3 million tons of Sugar, up more than 18% from last year. India also expects strong production after good monsoon rains this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 2250, 2200, and 2100 March and resistance is at 2400, 2460, and 2520 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 574.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 593.00, 602.00, and 610.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 991,992
: Positions :
: 103,059 71,126 216,138 368,673 621,152 224,768 28,727 912,638 937,143: 79,354 54,849
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: 106,147) :
: 23,005 -13,177 32,533 26,924 100,378 14,285 -5,302 96,747 114,431: 9,400 -8,285
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 7.2 21.8 37.2 62.6 22.7 2.9 92.0 94.5: 8.0 5.5
: Total Traders: 231 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 33 72 70 75 42 21 206 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and New York filled a gap on the weekly charts that was left a couple of weeks ago. There are still ideas of tight supplies available to the market now as production for the next crop looks to be improved. However, news reports indicate that governments in West Africa have been forcing producers and traders to liquidate stocks and make more available to the market. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7780, 7470, and 7200 December, with resistance at 8550, 8710, and 8830 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5140, 4960, and 4870 December, with resistance at 5730, 5800, and 5900 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 24, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 199,499
: Positions :
: 29,230 11,552 73,105 54,928 97,471 31,155 12,340 188,418 194,469: 11,081 5,030
: Changes from: September 17, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,886) :
: 1,537 275 495 815 3,964 347 -1,155 3,195 3,579: 692 307
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 5.8 36.6 27.5 48.9 15.6 6.2 94.4 97.5: 5.6 2.5
: Total Traders: 176 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 39 64 35 36 32 14 159 124:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322