Softs Report 09/09/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week on speculative selling and ideas that the weather in southern states was going to improve this week. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. Speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now even after some very hot weather, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Moderate temperatures are likely for the Delta and Southeast this week and rain is forecast for parts of Texas. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Futures are now as cheap as they have been for several years.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 67.40, 66.30, and 65.70 December, with resistance of 69.40, 71.30 and 73.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 268,784
: Positions :
: 23,781 80,152 67,323 82,152 87,456 80,503 18,276 253,759 253,207: 15,025 15,577
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,127) :
: -3,630 -2,890 3,834 2,374 4,441 1,017 -1,927 3,596 3,458: 531 669
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 29.8 25.0 30.6 32.5 30.0 6.8 94.4 94.2: 5.6 5.8
: Total Traders: 307 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 110 92 64 60 47 20 243 221:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week as ideas of reduced production continue and as forecasts call for no tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida. A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 468.00, 452.00, and 438.00 November, with resistance at a 496.00, 502.00, and 508.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 3, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,968 :
: Positions :
: 1,357 7,403 815 0 72 3,436 393 25 1,176 432 2,575 :
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 :
: 101 170 41 0 -11 -99 5 -4 15 -39 101 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 61.9 6.8 0.0 0.6 28.7 3.3 0.2 9.8 3.6 21.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 6 7 4 0 . 18 . . 13 5 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower Friday and lower for the week on speculative selling and with offers from Vietnam and Indonesia still hard to find but offers from Brazil in the market. Indonesian offers are now less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season. It is very dry in Brazil right now. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is now 243.88 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 234.00, 229.00, and 226.00 December, and resistance is at 242.00, 248.00 and 252.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4660, 4620, and 4530 November, with resistance at 5180, 5240, and 5300 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 239,688
: Positions :
: 53,591 14,490 60,932 52,820 147,944 63,945 10,777 231,288 234,142: 8,400 5,545
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: 2,309) :
: -2,197 1,899 2,979 1,133 -3,102 864 278 2,779 2,055: -470 253
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.4 6.0 25.4 22.0 61.7 26.7 4.5 96.5 97.7: 3.5 2.3
: Total Traders: 374 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 67 110 92 117 51 21 310 278:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation and some reports of commercial selling from Brazil. Chinese demand remains in focus amid the economic problems seen there. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed to allow any exports. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong but should start falling soon.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 18950, 1850, and 1780 October and resistance is at 1940, 1960, and 1990 October. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 526.00, 517.00, and 513.00 October, with resistance at 547.00, 549.00, and 562.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,005,338
: Positions :
: 80,120 95,958 227,725 402,948 564,534 224,481 54,161 935,274 942,378: 70,065 62,961
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,162) :
: 53 -21,226 -1,405 1,316 30,751 89 -6,960 53 1,160: 3,108 2,002
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 9.5 22.7 40.1 56.2 22.3 5.4 93.0 93.7: 7.0 6.3
: Total Traders: 232 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 50 83 71 70 39 21 207 188:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week as tight supply conditions continue but production for the next crop looks to be improved. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently dry weather in Ivory Coast. Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year. A stronger US Dollar hurt New York and supported London on Friday.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 6820 and 6020 December. Support is at 6600, 6000, and 5870 December, with resistance at 7610, 7940, and 8240 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4870, 4850, and 4790 December, with resistance at 5440, 5510, and 5800 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 187,463
: Positions :
: 28,353 14,736 67,606 50,149 85,469 29,832 14,449 175,940 182,260: 11,524 5,203
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: -5,906) :
: -1,181 -3,134 -3,682 700 1,253 -1,434 -792 -5,597 -6,355: -309 449
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 7.9 36.1 26.8 45.6 15.9 7.7 93.9 97.2: 6.1 2.8
: Total Traders: 172 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 40 63 33 34 31 14 155 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322