Weekly Ag Markets Update – 09/09/2024

Wheat: Wheat was higher in all three markets last week as world prices from Russia have not rallied but prices in the US and Europe have rallied strongly.  Cash markets in Russia were unchanged.  Ideas of good crops in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.  There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain.  Eastern Europe is also hot and dry.  Western Europe has seen too much rain.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn:  Corn and Oats closed higher last week on speculative concerns about what USDA will say in the production report due next week as cooler and dry weather was reported and forecast in just about all of the Midwest and is forecast for the weekend.  Ideas are that USDA will show very strong yield and production potential for the crop tis year. These ideas were enhanced by FC Stone and linn Group issuing very large yield an production estimates, although the estimate from Stine was a little below ts previous estimate.  Producer selling of old crop supplies wrapped up last week before September First Notice Day last Friday and farmers plan to hold new crop supplies.  Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away.  Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.  Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little higher last week on speculative buying that came after a big drop in prices initially and appeared to be short covering.  Soybean Oil was lower on further weakness in Canola values.  Stronger demand news as China bought again were reasons to trade the market.  There is also concern about the hot and dry weather seen in the Midwest early last week that could hurt pod fill.  However, FC Stone and linn Group both forecast record crops and USDA is likely to agree when it releases its estimates on Thursday.  Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts.  Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months.  The weather is cooler now but it should remain dry.  Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average.  Domestic demand has been strong in the US.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice closed lower on Friday but higher for the week on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas.  The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year.  Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state.  However, planted area has increased from last year

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was a little lower last week on idea of increasing production and on currency concerns as thee Ringgit has firmed.  Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time but is rising.  Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days.  There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts.  Canola was lower last week as China started to retaliate against Canada for imposing new tariffs on EV from China.  China has moved to increase tariffs on Canadian Canola and Canola Oil imports and demand concerns are real as China had been a major buyer of Canola and Oil.  The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted.  The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton was lower last week on speculative selling and ideas that the weather in southern states was going to improve this week.  There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.  Speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough.   The Delta should have the best looking crops right now even after some very hot weather, but crops in other areas are more suspect.  Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season.  Moderate temperatures are likely for the Delta and Southeast this week and rain is forecast for parts of Texas.  Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.  Futures are now as cheap as they have been for several years.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed higher last week as ideas of reduced production continue and as forecasts call for no tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic.  Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida.  A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true.  The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida.  The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London closed sharply lower Friday and lower for the week on speculative selling and with offers from Vietnam and Indonesia still hard to find but offers from Brazil in the market.  Indonesian offers are now less as producers wait for higher prices before selling.  Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop.  There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season.  It is very dry in Brazil right now.  Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London closed lower last week on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation and some reports of commercial selling from Brazil.  Chinese demand remains in focus amid the economic problems seen there.  Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil.  Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.  They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed to allow any exports.  Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere.  Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong but should start falling soon.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  New York and London closed lower last week as tight supply conditions continue but production for the next crop looks to be improved.  Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently dry weather in Ivory Coast.  Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted.  Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa.  The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.  A stronger US Dollar hurt New York and supported London on Friday.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322