Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 2.25 to 4.5 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Consumer Inflation Expectations and Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Consumer Credit Change at 2:00 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., Used Car Sales MoM & YoY, and Total Vehicles Sales.
The monthly jobs report once again offered plenty of surprises in September and ultimately sent US Stock indexes lower. The less reliable Establishment survey showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 jobs in August, falling short of the 160,000 consensus figure. June jobs were slashed by 61,000 jobs, from 179,00 to 118,000, while the July figure was revised lower by 25,000 jobs, from 114,000 to 89,000. The Household survey showed that the unemployment rate eased from 4.3% in July to 4.2 in August. It was still the 2nd highest monthly rate since October 2021. The native-born labor force fell by 1.491 Mil, while non-native born labor force grew by 531,000. In the last 4 years the native-born labor force has shrunk by 1.245 Mil, while non-native-born labor force has grown by 4.33 Mil. Not a rosy picture for native-born taxpayers.
On the Weather Front Potential Tropical Storm Six is on our radar, the system is forecast to become a tropical storm today as it moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion later today, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Potential Tropical Storm Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, portions of southernmost Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.
Central US forecast
Models are consistent in Wetter Pattern After Sep16th; Warmth/Dryness Continues Nearby:
The Central US forecast is mixed, with the EU, GFS, and AI models all projecting an expansion in rainfall beyond the next 8-9 days. Confidences in details is low, but there’s hope for better rain chances in the 2nd half of September. The EU model’s 10-day and 11-15 day outlooks show Tropical Storm Activity will have an outsized impact on the intricasies of US weather from mid-Sep to late Oct. Crop stress persists in the short run. Little/no rain is advertised prior to Sep 15th, and temps this week will exist in the 80’s and low 90’s. Excessive heat favor the US HRW Belt- where rain will be most needed in the next 30-45 days.
Economy-Job Numbers Revisions + Another Bust. The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/09/2024
We kickoff the day with Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 2.25 to 4.5 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Consumer Inflation Expectations and Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Consumer Credit Change at 2:00 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., Used Car Sales MoM & YoY, and Total Vehicles Sales.
The monthly jobs report once again offered plenty of surprises in September and ultimately sent US Stock indexes lower. The less reliable Establishment survey showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 jobs in August, falling short of the 160,000 consensus figure. June jobs were slashed by 61,000 jobs, from 179,00 to 118,000, while the July figure was revised lower by 25,000 jobs, from 114,000 to 89,000. The Household survey showed that the unemployment rate eased from 4.3% in July to 4.2 in August. It was still the 2nd highest monthly rate since October 2021. The native-born labor force fell by 1.491 Mil, while non-native born labor force grew by 531,000. In the last 4 years the native-born labor force has shrunk by 1.245 Mil, while non-native-born labor force has grown by 4.33 Mil. Not a rosy picture for native-born taxpayers.
On the Weather Front Potential Tropical Storm Six is on our radar, the system is forecast to become a tropical storm today as it moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion later today, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Potential Tropical Storm Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, portions of southernmost Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.
Central US forecast
Models are consistent in Wetter Pattern After Sep16th; Warmth/Dryness Continues Nearby:
The Central US forecast is mixed, with the EU, GFS, and AI models all projecting an expansion in rainfall beyond the next 8-9 days. Confidences in details is low, but there’s hope for better rain chances in the 2nd half of September. The EU model’s 10-day and 11-15 day outlooks show Tropical Storm Activity will have an outsized impact on the intricasies of US weather from mid-Sep to late Oct. Crop stress persists in the short run. Little/no rain is advertised prior to Sep 15th, and temps this week will exist in the 80’s and low 90’s. Excessive heat favor the US HRW Belt- where rain will be most needed in the next 30-45 days.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn