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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 09/09/2024

By Jack Scoville On September 9, 2024 - 9:26 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks as of July 31, 2024 – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of July 31, 2024, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31
2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023
Barley 878 557 344 152 1,222 708
Canaryseed 34 49 10 8 44 57
Canola 775 840 2,317 1,012 3,092 1,853
Chickpeas 1 71 21 23 22 93
Corn N/A 894 N/A 733 N/A 1,627
Flaxseed 120 167 44 53 165 220
Lentils 29 93 150 119 179 211
Mustard 78 30 10 10 88 40
Oats 206 789 257 486 463 1,275
Peas 103 352 245 198 348 550
Rye 78 80 16 25 94 105
Soybeans N/A 118 N/A 254 N/A 372
Sunflower 171 144 3 6 175 150
All wheat 796 2,914 3,787 2,711 4,583 5,625
Durum 50 290 526 284 576 574

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 10, 2024 100 Sep 03, 2024
CORN September Sep 10, 2024 45 Sep 03, 2024
SOYBEAN September Sep 10, 2024 65 Sep 05, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets last week as world prices from Russia have not rallied but prices in the US and Europe have rallied strongly. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged. Ideas of good crops in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 560, 544, and 532 December, with resistance at 603, 615, and 642 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 524, 573, and 566 December, with resistance at 595, 607, and 618 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 602, 595, and 575 December, and resistance is at 630, 618, and 630 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 438,859
: Positions :
: 64,634 145,421 114,539 91,477 92,607 134,880 48,416 405,531 400,982: 33,329 37,877
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,703) :
: -6,616 -11,234 4,829 -5,430 -1,107 2,847 802 -4,370 -6,709: -2,333 7
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 33.1 26.1 20.8 21.1 30.7 11.0 92.4 91.4: 7.6 8.6
: Total Traders: 378 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 116 118 97 102 47 30 294 297:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 253,755
: Positions :
: 34,277 69,731 50,486 56,623 80,715 93,201 31,259 234,587 232,191: 19,168 21,564
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: 760) :
: -2,313 -3,973 66 -1,577 3,542 2,837 94 -986 -271: 1,747 1,031
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 27.5 19.9 22.3 31.8 36.7 12.3 92.4 91.5: 7.6 8.5
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 47 65 52 76 76 38 20 189 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

: Changes from: August 27, 2024 :
: -2,266 -55 -894 -79 99 793 -507 -241 189 -378 781 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 55.9 27.3 3.8 0.5 0.2 9.9 42.0 8.1 3.2 3.8 5.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 123 :
: 58 40 6 . 4 10 22 10 10 8 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower on Friday but higher for the week on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. However, planted area has increased from last year
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1472, and 1466 November and resistance is at 1544, 1551, and 1562 November

: Changes from: August 27, 2024 :
: 555 19 52 1 0 22 289 0 104 24 129 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.8 49.6 0.5 2.3 0.0 5.3 26.4 0.0 14.9 1.8 7.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 22 14 . . 0 5 13 0 16 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher last week on speculative concerns about what USDA will say in the production report due next week as cooler and dry weather was reported and forecast in just about all of the Midwest and is forecast for the weekend. Ideas are that USDA will show very strong yield and production potential for the crop tis year. These ideas were enhanced by FC Stone and linn Group issuing very large yield an production estimates, although the estimate from Stine was a little below ts previous estimate. Producer selling of old crop supplies wrapped up last week before September First Notice Day last Friday and farmers plan to hold new crop supplies. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 402, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 325, 314, and 305 December, and resistance is at 361, 364, and 370 December

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,702,699
: Positions :
: 169,193 326,157 473,152 489,319 531,690 397,102 151,685 1,528,766 1,482,684: 173,933 220,014
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: -74,427) :
: 3,323 -38,417 -41,416 -44,365 16,823 14,682 579 -67,776 -62,432: -6,651 -11,995
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 19.2 27.8 28.7 31.2 23.3 8.9 89.8 87.1: 10.2 12.9
: Total Traders: 785 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 150 186 324 330 51 32 614 614:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 3, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,333 :
: Positions :
: 1,434 1,034 144 339 27 298 1,227 0 498 368 169 :
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 :
: -419 163 -31 -123 11 217 -236 0 -140 -58 21 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.1 23.9 3.3 7.8 0.6 6.9 28.3 0.0 11.5 8.5 3.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 33 :
: 8 6 . . . 4 5 0 6 4 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little higher last week on speculative buying that came after a big drop in prices initially and appeared to be short covering. Soybean Oil was lower on further weakness in Canola values. Stronger demand news as China bought again were reasons to trade the market. There is also concern about the hot and dry weather seen in the Midwest early last week that could hurt pod fill. However, FC Stone and linn Group both forecast record crops and USDA is likely to agree when it releases its estimates on Thursday. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is cooler now but it should remain dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 988, 973, and 961 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4020, 3940, and 3710 October, with resistance at 4200, 4300, and 4400 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,056,648
: Positions :
: 48,353 196,617 300,140 460,943 374,592 201,083 108,985 1,010,519 980,333: 46,129 76,315
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: 12,003) :
: 957 -20,935 2,406 15,810 33,447 7,348 1,321 26,522 16,240: -14,519 -4,237
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.6 18.6 28.4 43.6 35.5 19.0 10.3 95.6 92.8: 4.4 7.2
: Total Traders: 572 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 168 174 198 213 50 28 456 481:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 583,692
: Positions :
: 73,419 122,623 117,175 212,699 278,162 151,017 39,461 554,310 557,422: 29,381 26,270
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: -137) :
: 1,389 -16,291 2,761 -2,343 17,246 1,195 -2,763 3,001 953: -3,138 -1,089
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 21.0 20.1 36.4 47.7 25.9 6.8 95.0 95.5: 5.0 4.5
: Total Traders: 342 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 96 98 110 96 42 25 277 258:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 569,863
: Positions :
: 71,375 78,027 130,221 172,943 295,819 143,105 37,496 517,643 541,563: 52,220 28,300
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: -5,468) :
: 6,715 -9,822 -8,902 -7,131 12,076 4,119 2,651 -5,199 -3,997: -269 -1,471
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 13.7 22.9 30.3 51.9 25.1 6.6 90.8 95.0: 9.2 5.0
: Total Traders: 347 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 78 99 123 115 43 24 288 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower last week on idea of increasing production and on currency concerns as thee Ringgit has firmed. It was lower today in anticipation of bearish MPOB data to be released later this week. Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time but is rising. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower last week as China started to retaliate against Canada for imposing new tariffs on EV from China. China has moved to increase tariffs on Canadian Canola and Canola Oil imports and demand concerns are real as China had been a major buyer of Canola and Oil. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 570.00, 563.00, and 556.00 November, with resistance at 606.00, 621.00, and 629.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3860, 3820, and 3740 November, with resistance at 3950, 4020, and 4090 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 3, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 41,769 :
: Positions :
: 31,674 13,400 480 15,632 570 840 35 630 445 4,372 7,110 :
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 :
: -5,072 -1,855 -360 -1,995 -10 120 -1,980 380 140 648 -985 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 75.8 32.1 1.1 37.4 1.4 2.0 0.1 1.5 1.1 10.5 17.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 36 :
: 9 10 . 7 . . . . . 11 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 3, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 311,830 :
: Positions :
: 259,189 110,780 4,157 15,675 1,856 5,220 139,244 15,208 10,014 11,841 14,577 :
: Changes from: August 27, 2024 :
: -4,328 656 -87 -481 679 -3,944 -14,544 -3,178 -6,915 -669 2,036 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 83.1 35.5 1.3 5.0 0.6 1.7 44.7 4.9 3.2 3.8 4.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 325 :
: 58 76 5 7 6 10 87 24 38 82 51 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 965.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 935.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 920.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 912.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 970.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 940.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 925.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 917.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 985.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 4,030.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 334.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.362)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 127,080 lots, or 5.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 4,438 4,438 4,438 0 0 4,065
Nov-24 4,397 4,399 4,331 4,357 4,390 4,358 -32 8,283 17,448
Jan-25 4,340 4,346 4,269 4,293 4,337 4,301 -36 114,960 128,037
Mar-25 4,272 4,274 4,196 4,218 4,263 4,227 -36 2,307 15,079
May-25 4,296 4,298 4,221 4,239 4,287 4,254 -33 1,230 8,152
Jul-25 4,230 4,236 4,165 4,182 4,227 4,194 -33 300 3,417
Corn
Turnover: 965,867 lots, or 21.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,278 2,278 2,256 2,256 2,278 2,264 -14 610 1,874
Nov-24 2,270 2,278 2,214 2,224 2,277 2,237 -40 630,253 582,264
Jan-25 2,256 2,266 2,220 2,227 2,262 2,235 -27 233,861 459,543
Mar-25 2,250 2,259 2,216 2,222 2,254 2,229 -25 54,797 161,134
May-25 2,298 2,299 2,259 2,265 2,293 2,271 -22 30,983 66,905
Jul-25 2,304 2,309 2,268 2,278 2,303 2,280 -23 15,363 39,579
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,613,274 lots, or 79.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 3,092 3,092 3,062 3,062 3,092 3,090 -2 274 1,974
Nov-24 3,172 3,173 3,091 3,123 3,134 3,125 -9 155,888 397,663
Dec-24 3,149 3,160 3,080 3,106 3,116 3,111 -5 22,349 113,900
Jan-25 3,135 3,145 3,062 3,091 3,097 3,098 1 1,899,728 1,363,455
Mar-25 2,985 2,988 2,934 2,972 2,960 2,958 -2 23,407 110,699
May-25 2,890 2,899 2,842 2,876 2,874 2,871 -3 474,052 993,417
Jul-25 2,881 2,888 2,842 2,871 2,876 2,865 -11 28,876 96,791
Aug-25 2,992 2,992 2,946 2,975 2,978 2,970 -8 8,700 43,669
Palm Oil
Turnover: 908,302 lots, or 71.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 8,004 8,004 8,004 0 63 545
Oct-24 7,950 7,966 7,818 7,960 7,976 7,896 -80 12,752 12,523
Nov-24 7,944 7,956 7,802 7,954 7,970 7,886 -84 5,280 7,219
Dec-24 7,928 7,942 7,800 7,936 7,938 7,880 -58 336 628
Jan-25 7,890 7,902 7,742 7,898 7,926 7,834 -92 843,229 476,982
Feb-25 7,832 7,866 7,740 7,866 7,860 7,816 -44 37 344
Mar-25 7,846 7,856 7,710 7,856 7,858 7,796 -62 182 3,323
Apr-25 7,804 7,818 7,688 7,818 7,840 7,742 -98 38 280
May-25 7,790 7,790 7,640 7,774 7,812 7,712 -100 46,312 108,705
Jun-25 7,676 7,700 7,600 7,686 7,744 7,662 -82 37 125
Jul-25 7,652 7,652 7,544 7,628 7,684 7,600 -84 31 149
Aug-25 7,566 7,604 7,552 7,604 7,644 7,574 -70 5 25
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 657,931 lots, or 50.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,946 7,946 7,662 7,662 7,666 7,804 138 18 3,686
Nov-24 7,710 7,732 7,596 7,702 7,714 7,658 -56 13,691 26,563
Dec-24 7,740 7,742 7,606 7,722 7,728 7,666 -62 1,023 4,333
Jan-25 7,726 7,732 7,588 7,706 7,714 7,656 -58 595,991 608,394
Mar-25 7,630 7,630 7,502 7,614 7,622 7,558 -64 423 4,427
May-25 7,408 7,456 7,332 7,442 7,448 7,390 -58 46,659 201,386
Jul-25 7,350 7,352 7,252 7,340 7,346 7,300 -46 95 727
Aug-25 7,346 7,354 7,278 7,346 7,356 7,308 -48 31 152
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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