Grains Report 06/17/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets again last week but held to trading ranges for much of the week as the US harvest expands and even as adverse world growing conditions are still around. There are more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. However, US producers are reporting strong yields that exceed expectations so far and very good conditions. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 606, 595, and 569 July, with resistance at 630, 640, and 650 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 600, 623, and 598 July, with resistance at 660, 675, and 690 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 648, 640, and 634 July, and resistance is at 670, 676, and 685 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 489,836
: Positions :
: 46,202 113,349 157,651 98,532 116,223 149,804 61,206 452,190 448,429: 37,647 41,407
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -27,742) :
: -8,083 -6,347 -15,163 4,595 -8,363 -11,464 4,166 -30,115 -25,707: 2,373 -2,036
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 23.1 32.2 20.1 23.7 30.6 12.5 92.3 91.5: 7.7 8.5
: Total Traders: 375 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 94 142 101 111 47 33 319 315:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 260,735
: Positions :
: 27,913 65,889 61,117 65,801 87,991 87,503 19,644 242,334 234,640: 18,401 26,095
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -20,530) :
: -2,783 109 -9,857 815 -4,159 -8,441 -6,859 -20,266 -20,766: -265 236
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 25.3 23.4 25.2 33.7 33.6 7.5 92.9 90.0: 7.1 10.0
: Total Traders: 221 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 41 48 61 70 74 38 21 184 172:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 65,721 :
: Positions :
: 30,266 34,790 3,200 151 208 12,313 9,778 5,635 1,263 869 3,362 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 3,443 -3,097 -561 -215 11 -564 4,633 791 -1,339 48 521 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.1 52.9 4.9 0.2 0.3 18.7 14.9 8.6 1.9 1.3 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 113 :
: 59 46 5 . . 14 17 14 7 6 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed last week after seeing some wild price action as the July contract continues to liquidate longs and shorts in a violent way. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms have brought significant rains to crops in Texas, but the weather is better now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1790, 1753, and 1741 July and resistance is at 1872, 1900, and 1916 July

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,275 :
: Positions :
: 4,264 6,129 143 0 0 670 1,341 1 1,470 109 674 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 234 -409 -18 0 0 -262 423 -162 301 77 71 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.0 66.1 1.5 0.0 0.0 7.2 14.5 0.0 15.8 1.2 7.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 53 :
: 20 19 . 0 0 6 7 . 10 4 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher last week on news that Brazil has proposed new export taxes on Agricultural goods of 20% and on reduced production estimates from CONAB. Congress must approve the measure, but farmers there are already reported to be halting sales to see what happens next. The US Midwest is still seeing good growing conditions. The market anticipated that crop condition ratings would be very high in the USDA reports last week and will anticipate high crop ratings this week. Oats were lower on good growing conditions found in the northern US and into Canada. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet but it is drier and warm now. Demand has been a force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 467, 464, and 462 July, and resistance is at 478, 485, and 493 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 323, 317, and 311 July, and resistance is at 340, 350, and 368 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,057,510
: Positions :
: 172,125 358,231 646,165 572,320 613,379 479,412 206,943 1,870,022 1,824,717: 187,488 232,793
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -9,589) :
: 15,679 7,458 -10,734 12,640 25,024 -28,477 -26,655 -10,893 -4,906: 1,304 -4,683
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 17.4 31.4 27.8 29.8 23.3 10.1 90.9 88.7: 9.1 11.3
: Total Traders: 783 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 147 143 203 366 351 55 37 679 641:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly higher last week, but held to trading ranges, on good growing conditions in the US against reports of increased taxes for Brazil farmers. Support also came from reduced production estimates from CONAB. The government there has proposed a new tax on farm production and exports of up to 20%. Congress must approve the measure, but reports indicate that Brazil farmers are pulling back from sales to see what happens next. There were wire reports that China prices are weakening amid veery strong imports from Brazil. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back on demand if the domestic market does not improve and on ye tax issues in Brazil. Some of that demand has moved to the US. China said that it has increased exports of Soybean Meal due to the weaker internal demand. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1166, 1157, and 1146 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1224, and 1236 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 350.00 and 324.00 July. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 342.00 July, and resistance is at 373.00, 376.00, and 381.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4330 and 4130 July. Support is at 4310, 4270, and 4250 July, with resistance at 4530, 4690, and 4780 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,056,572
: Positions :
: 59,952 157,312 317,754 422,810 430,053 198,474 72,398 998,990 977,518: 57,582 79,054
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -17,842) :
: -2,392 4,482 -14,168 9,574 -9,529 -10,697 5,521 -17,683 -13,694: -159 -4,148
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.7 14.9 30.1 40.0 40.7 18.8 6.9 94.6 92.5: 5.4 7.5
: Total Traders: 567 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 158 190 207 211 49 27 482 477:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 614,955
: Positions :
: 58,194 148,268 144,411 219,375 256,687 159,476 38,038 581,456 587,405: 33,499 27,549
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -325) :
: 2,483 13,822 2,074 6,182 -8,514 -10,901 -6,915 -161 468: -164 -794
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 24.1 23.5 35.7 41.7 25.9 6.2 94.6 95.5: 5.4 4.5
: Total Traders: 339 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 88 101 103 95 45 28 275 266:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 546,457
: Positions :
: 95,763 40,801 137,077 128,007 314,325 134,317 23,701 495,164 515,904: 51,293 30,553
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,989) :
: -10,084 -5,662 13,286 5,219 308 -3,265 -2,782 5,156 5,149: -166 -160
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.5 7.5 25.1 23.4 57.5 24.6 4.3 90.6 94.4: 9.4 5.6
: Total Traders: 335 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 67 95 115 124 40 22 277 272:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher last week on stronger demand ideas. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was lower on reports of generally good conditions in Canada and as the Canadian Dollar rallied.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 593.00 and 566.00 July. Support is at 597.00, 594.00, and 585.00 July, with resistance at 626.00, 642.00, and 645.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3890, 3860, and 3780 September, with resistance at 3970, 4020, and 4080 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 43,711 :
: Positions :
: 34,311 15,370 1,120 15,565 50 600 2,420 80 710 3,416 6,810 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 1,125 1,060 120 95 0 0 340 0 170 -20 120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.5 35.2 2.6 35.6 0.1 1.4 5.5 0.2 1.6 7.8 15.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 8 9 . 4 . . . . . 6 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 247,875 :
: Positions :
: 203,049 96,803 4,226 13,087 419 2,210 100,068 16,452 12,359 10,589 8,084 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 9,863 -19,589 -149 1,038 -998 -2,187 27,658 -9,026 2,227 410 -897 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.9 39.1 1.7 5.3 0.2 0.9 40.4 6.6 5.0 4.3 3.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 320 :
: 53 62 4 6 5 9 88 27 52 73 49 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 59 July 115 July
40 July
66 July

July 60 July 115 July 40 July 67 July

August 56 Sep 110 Sep 30 Sep 70 Aug

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,164 lots, or 5.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,638 4,641 4,614 4,623 4,633 4,628 -5 47,743 44,896
Sep-24 4,551 4,551 4,509 4,514 4,554 4,527 -27 62,551 134,596
Nov-24 4,474 4,478 4,432 4,438 4,481 4,454 -27 2,913 14,835
Jan-25 4,473 4,473 4,424 4,431 4,473 4,446 -27 6,987 24,187
Mar-25 4,465 4,465 4,416 4,423 4,465 4,436 -29 623 2,102
May-25 4,481 4,482 4,414 4,415 4,478 4,439 -39 347 1,095
Corn
Turnover: 610,666 lots, or 15.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,456 2,457 2,443 2,444 2,457 2,449 -8 79,009 179,639
Sep-24 2,483 2,484 2,467 2,467 2,487 2,474 -13 443,425 686,590
Nov-24 2,437 2,437 2,414 2,417 2,437 2,423 -14 34,944 218,211
Jan-25 2,414 2,415 2,399 2,400 2,420 2,406 -14 40,377 159,051
Mar-25 2,424 2,424 2,408 2,409 2,427 2,417 -10 12,260 38,780
May-25 2,458 2,460 2,450 2,452 2,460 2,455 -5 651 2,279
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,690,031 lots, or 57.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,298 3,303 3,216 3,237 3,301 3,253 -48 19,058 51,696
Aug-24 3,441 3,441 3,353 3,377 3,432 3,386 -46 17,651 88,603
Sep-24 3,455 3,458 3,373 3,399 3,446 3,411 -35 1,379,866 1,940,071
Nov-24 3,465 3,474 3,390 3,415 3,459 3,421 -38 22,158 383,410
Dec-24 3,438 3,438 3,376 3,395 3,432 3,400 -32 3,960 40,610
Jan-25 3,396 3,404 3,343 3,364 3,392 3,370 -22 193,157 457,509
Mar-25 3,236 3,237 3,191 3,212 3,229 3,214 -15 3,793 28,154
May-25 3,107 3,107 3,072 3,083 3,097 3,083 -14 50,388 182,348
Palm Oil
Turnover: 991,919 lots, or 75.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 – – – 7,652 7,600 7,652 52 0 0
Jul-24 7,698 7,728 7,478 7,520 7,710 7,588 -122 2,272 2,503
Aug-24 7,672 7,704 7,446 7,498 7,660 7,548 -112 5,133 3,304
Sep-24 7,688 7,722 7,458 7,510 7,678 7,580 -98 898,732 524,625
Oct-24 7,696 7,708 7,464 7,514 7,680 7,606 -74 361 505
Nov-24 7,684 7,702 7,464 7,510 7,670 7,602 -68 290 611
Dec-24 7,698 7,698 7,460 7,496 7,670 7,584 -86 365 368
Jan-25 7,678 7,694 7,450 7,494 7,680 7,562 -118 79,033 162,371
Feb-25 7,664 7,666 7,450 7,488 7,660 7,538 -122 98 189
Mar-25 7,640 7,640 7,450 7,478 7,646 7,560 -86 216 1,647
Apr-25 7,642 7,642 7,450 7,474 7,626 7,544 -82 51 192
May-25 7,596 7,606 7,426 7,460 7,580 7,518 -62 5,368 12,793
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 631,431 lots, or 49.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,784 7,796 7,620 7,668 7,800 7,698 -102 1,886 7,047
Aug-24 7,834 7,852 7,678 7,710 7,828 7,746 -82 4,974 28,075
Sep-24 7,892 7,910 7,728 7,764 7,880 7,814 -66 552,714 676,899
Nov-24 7,912 7,920 7,750 7,778 7,902 7,826 -76 581 5,166
Dec-24 7,966 7,978 7,812 7,846 7,978 7,900 -78 69 1,517
Jan-25 7,940 7,952 7,764 7,800 7,926 7,842 -84 64,745 187,646
Mar-25 7,718 7,718 7,552 7,586 7,704 7,616 -88 184 3,450
May-25 7,648 7,668 7,482 7,532 7,636 7,578 -58 6,278 26,236
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322