Softs Report 06/17/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week as growing conditions are good and demand is not. USDA will issue new crop ratings today and the ratings are expected to remain generally high. Big storms were reported in Texas recently that could damage crops. There are also some big problems with too much rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent weeks. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 70.80, 69.60, and 69.00 July, with resistance of 73.70, 76.00 and 80.30 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 248,337
: Positions :
: 30,276 73,524 52,237 65,380 94,243 85,656 14,122 233,549 234,127: 14,787 14,210
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -32,336) :
: 366 11,251 -23,391 -10,922 -14,104 551 -5,362 -33,397 -31,607: 1,061 -729
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 29.6 21.0 26.3 37.9 34.5 5.7 94.0 94.3: 6.0 5.7
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 91 86 56 58 48 22 236 213:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday in correction trading, but a little lower for the week. The daily charts show that the market is trying to form a bottom but the work is not done yet. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 403.00 and 370.00 July. Support is at 417.00, 406.00, and 389.00 July, with resistance at 452.00, 473.00, and 477.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,155 :
: Positions :
: 2,399 8,893 961 0 228 3,438 257 107 1,972 702 3,708 :
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 :
: 405 -475 -51 0 -7 -573 -104 -20 -7 139 73 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.8 58.7 6.3 0.0 1.5 22.7 1.7 0.7 13.0 4.6 24.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 8 9 5 0 . 18 . . 9 12 10 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed closed lower last wwek despite short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta and on forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. Exports from Brazil have remained strong.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now N.A ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 218.00, 212.00, and 208.00 July, and resistance is at 229.00, 239.00 and 241.00 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4180, 4060, and 3990 July, with resistance at 4540, 4660, and 4780 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 305,102
: Positions :
: 59,918 14,979 99,328 74,519 170,365 61,674 13,230 295,440 297,902: 9,663 7,201
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -4,675) :
: -550 1,054 -5,807 6,550 3,131 -4,982 -3,292 -4,790 -4,914: 114 238
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.6 4.9 32.6 24.4 55.8 20.2 4.3 96.8 97.6: 3.2 2.4
: Total Traders: 395 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 81 118 103 122 50 21 335 290:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed lower Friday on harvest progress in Brazil, but were higher for the week and the charts show that trends are turning up. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and up on the weekly charts. End users need Sugar but are not finding too much available in the cash market. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather, but now the cry weather is causing concern about developing Sugarcane in center south areas. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1990 and 2090 July. Support is at 1890, 1860, and 1840 July and resistance is at 2000, 2050, and 2100 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 581.00 and 608.00 August. Support is at 536.00, 528.00, and 522.00 August, with resistance at 570.00, 578.00, and 586.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,027,963
: Positions :
: 81,782 146,026 245,202 399,528 485,164 226,453 69,167 952,965 945,559: 74,998 82,405
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -19,637) :
: -241 -9,415 -8,079 5,633 10,864 -19,188 -14,344 -21,874 -20,974: 2,237 1,337
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 14.2 23.9 38.9 47.2 22.0 6.7 92.7 92.0: 7.3 8.0
: Total Traders: 234 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 53 78 73 68 39 24 208 186:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher last week, and chart trends are still up. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed Support is at 9410, 8930, and 7870 July, with resistance at 10210, 10520, and 11000 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 7260, 6610, and 6160 July, with resistance at 7920, 8300, and 8640 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 11, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 237,463
: Positions :
: 25,346 10,785 103,071 62,751 101,007 33,626 16,104 224,793 230,968: 12,670 6,495
: Changes from: June 4, 2024 (Change in open interest: -43,916) :
: 3,092 -1,002 -39,464 -6,088 -2,968 -1,362 -1,198 -43,822 -44,632: -95 715
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 4.5 43.4 26.4 42.5 14.2 6.8 94.7 97.3: 5.3 2.7
: Total Traders: 163 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 36 65 36 34 29 17 151 124:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322