Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the week with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 7:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 2-Month & 6-Momth Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., Fed Harker Speech and 42-Day Bill Auction at 12:00 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Cook Speech at 8:00 P.M.
Were coming in lower this morning as traders access the 10-day weather forecast and NOPA Crush, Export Inspections, and Crop progress will also weigh on this weeks trading. US export prices in May declined 0.6% from April, marking the first monthly decline since December, as lower prices for non-agricultural goods offset higher agriculture prices. Compared to a year ago, May export were up 0.61%, marking the first year-over-year increase since January 2023. Import prices declined 0.4% from April to mark the first decline since December. But compared to a year ago, prices were 1.07% higher to mark the 3rd consecutive month of year-over-ear gains. From a pandemic high, export prices have seen the largest correction, but both export and import prices are significantly above pre-pandemic levels. Eastern Midwest Forecast Stays Hot into June 23, Excessive Rain Impacts Central Plains and Northwest Corn Belt. The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs. An expansive/intense high pressure Ridge will be anchored aloft the E Midwest/East Coast June 16-23, with the EU mode extended the duration of extreme heat into Friday/Saturday. Temps east of the Mississippi will consistently reach the mid/upper 90’s, with an outside chance highs in the low 100’s are recorded in IL,IN,KY, and OH today and again on Wednesday through Friday. Soil moisture loss will be rapid, and key is whether this pattern is extended into the opening part of July. Steady ridge-riding system will produce heavy rainfall of 2-8.00” in E-NE,SD.IA,MN, and northern WI. G Resources (ARC) notes that warm temps in July often, not always follow warm temps in June, and so the risk of sustained heat is elevated. Fortunately, elevated Gulf storm activity provides needed soaking rain to Mexico in late June. Chines monsoon sputters with dryness to deepen in next 10 days. Rainfall in China into June 23 will stay south of major crop areas, and the need for soaking rain becomes immediate July 1st onward. Shandong, which accounts for 10% of corn and 20% of Chinese winter wheat production. Dryness in center-east China is common during the spring, but seasonal heavy rains have so far failed to move northward as usual. Heat will accompany continued dryness in key areas wheat/corn belt. High temps in Shandong next week will exist in the 90’s/100’s. A year ago soaking rains in July eased crop issues in much of China. Watch late June/early July Chinese weather closely. Conditions outside the US remain far from ideal. The official end of El Nino suggest that dryness will continue. Argentine corn yields have fallen sharp[y as more of later planted crops are harvested. Remember funds are short up the yin-yang!
Weather Key Market Player. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/17/2024
We kickoff the week with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 7:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 2-Month & 6-Momth Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., Fed Harker Speech and 42-Day Bill Auction at 12:00 P.M., Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M., and Fed Cook Speech at 8:00 P.M.
Were coming in lower this morning as traders access the 10-day weather forecast and NOPA Crush, Export Inspections, and Crop progress will also weigh on this weeks trading. US export prices in May declined 0.6% from April, marking the first monthly decline since December, as lower prices for non-agricultural goods offset higher agriculture prices. Compared to a year ago, May export were up 0.61%, marking the first year-over-year increase since January 2023. Import prices declined 0.4% from April to mark the first decline since December. But compared to a year ago, prices were 1.07% higher to mark the 3rd consecutive month of year-over-ear gains. From a pandemic high, export prices have seen the largest correction, but both export and import prices are significantly above pre-pandemic levels. Eastern Midwest Forecast Stays Hot into June 23, Excessive Rain Impacts Central Plains and Northwest Corn Belt. The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs. An expansive/intense high pressure Ridge will be anchored aloft the E Midwest/East Coast June 16-23, with the EU mode extended the duration of extreme heat into Friday/Saturday. Temps east of the Mississippi will consistently reach the mid/upper 90’s, with an outside chance highs in the low 100’s are recorded in IL,IN,KY, and OH today and again on Wednesday through Friday. Soil moisture loss will be rapid, and key is whether this pattern is extended into the opening part of July. Steady ridge-riding system will produce heavy rainfall of 2-8.00” in E-NE,SD.IA,MN, and northern WI. G Resources (ARC) notes that warm temps in July often, not always follow warm temps in June, and so the risk of sustained heat is elevated. Fortunately, elevated Gulf storm activity provides needed soaking rain to Mexico in late June. Chines monsoon sputters with dryness to deepen in next 10 days. Rainfall in China into June 23 will stay south of major crop areas, and the need for soaking rain becomes immediate July 1st onward. Shandong, which accounts for 10% of corn and 20% of Chinese winter wheat production. Dryness in center-east China is common during the spring, but seasonal heavy rains have so far failed to move northward as usual. Heat will accompany continued dryness in key areas wheat/corn belt. High temps in Shandong next week will exist in the 90’s/100’s. A year ago soaking rains in July eased crop issues in much of China. Watch late June/early July Chinese weather closely. Conditions outside the US remain far from ideal. The official end of El Nino suggest that dryness will continue. Argentine corn yields have fallen sharp[y as more of later planted crops are harvested. Remember funds are short up the yin-yang!
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn