About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton was lower last week on weaker demand ideas. The export sales report showed poor sales once again. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 77.20 May. Support is at 77.40, 76.80, and 76.20 May, with resistance of 80.00, 82.00 and 82.80 May.

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and futures are at the lower end of a trading range. Reports of tight supplies are around. Florida said that Oranges production will be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet, so a range trade has been seen. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 353.00 May, with resistance at 380.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.

General Comments: Both markets closed higher on Friday and both are now developing a trading range. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market is still the main feature. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. There were some indications that Vietnam producers were now offering a little Coffee, but not much and not nearly enough to satisfy demand. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is starting now and offers increased yesterday on weakness in the Real.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 228.48 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 358 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 358 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 235.00, 219.00, and 214.00 May, and resistance is at 254.00, 257.00 and 260.00 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3980, 3950, and 3760 May, with resistance at 4320, 4350, and 4380 May.

General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week and trends remain down on the charts as the market seems to have supplies available for sale. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1910, 1880, and 1860 July and resistance is at 2000, 2050, and 2100 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 567.00 August. Support is at 555.00, 550.00, and 545.00 August, with resistance at 574.00, 580.00, and 589.00 August.

General Comments: New York and London were sharply higher and at new highs for the move and new contract highs and trends are up. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 11890 May. Support is at 10100, 10000, and 9630 May, with resistance at 12400, 12600, and 12800 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 9000, 8550, and 8080 May, with resistance at 10280, 10340, and 10460 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322