Grains Report 04/22/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower last week and trends remain mixed in all three markets. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue but are apparently getting resolved in the governments favor. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 527, 517, and 510 May, with resistance at 557, 568, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 571, 561, and 556 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 626, 610, and 604 May, and resistance is at 651, 658, and 660 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again last week and has rallied back to the contract highs. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1818, 1792, and 1778 May and resistance is at 1907, 1916, and 1935 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher last week as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 339, 334, and 328 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1128, 1114, and 1100 May, and resistance is at 1156, 1181, and 1193 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 325.00, and 323.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4360, 4300, and 4240 May, with resistance at 4620, 4730, and 4830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on price action in Chicago. It wad higher today on Chicago price action and ideas of less production this month. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 596.00 May. Support is at 602.00, 594.00, and 588.00 May, with resistance at 621.00, 637.00, and 645.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4970, 3920, and 3860 July, with resistance at 4020, 4080, and 4140 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

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Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 53 May 175 May
50 May
63 May

May 55 May 165 May 50 May 59 May

June 49 July 135 July 45 July 57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 907.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 882.50 -07.50 unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 850.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 847.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 912.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 887.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 855.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 852.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 912.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 785.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,120.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 317.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.777)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,477 lots, or 6.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,651 4,680 4,642 4,665 4,653 4,665 12 57,182 22,351
Jul-24 4,632 4,649 4,617 4,621 4,628 4,630 2 59,489 81,791
Sep-24 4,605 4,630 4,598 4,606 4,608 4,610 2 17,557 30,381
Nov-24 4,566 4,581 4,552 4,560 4,559 4,563 4 902 4,093
Jan-25 4,560 4,573 4,545 4,549 4,554 4,554 0 1,270 5,373
Mar-25 4,556 4,559 4,539 4,540 4,541 4,545 4 77 298
Corn
Turnover: 566,039 lots, or 13.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,393 2,402 2,387 2,390 2,384 2,393 9 102,082 203,824
Jul-24 2,415 2,425 2,403 2,404 2,407 2,412 5 363,814 698,681
Sep-24 2,440 2,450 2,430 2,430 2,434 2,436 2 84,081 356,864
Nov-24 2,413 2,418 2,398 2,398 2,403 2,405 2 8,391 51,317
Jan-25 2,400 2,408 2,388 2,388 2,395 2,395 0 7,395 75,323
Mar-25 2,408 2,408 2,393 2,396 2,401 2,397 -4 276 1,227
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,409,716 lots, or 47.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,250 3,274 3,239 3,245 3,245 3,256 11 107,964 190,542
Jul-24 3,275 3,292 3,259 3,268 3,261 3,276 15 35,311 131,843
Aug-24 3,352 3,365 3,331 3,337 3,332 3,350 18 4,682 53,011
Sep-24 3,351 3,367 3,330 3,338 3,331 3,350 19 1,187,054 1,996,313
Nov-24 3,342 3,354 3,320 3,328 3,320 3,336 16 5,427 37,224
Dec-24 3,353 3,372 3,342 3,349 3,340 3,359 19 497 8,037
Jan-25 3,325 3,337 3,309 3,317 3,307 3,323 16 66,770 325,055
Mar-25 3,233 3,243 3,217 3,223 3,226 3,229 3 2,011 7,419
Palm Oil
Turnover: 974,962 lots, or 72.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,804 7,838 7,622 7,664 7,842 7,740 -102 68,188 40,573
Jun-24 7,650 7,700 7,552 7,582 7,726 7,614 -112 9,556 11,732
Jul-24 7,486 7,550 7,404 7,438 7,556 7,474 -82 5,123 7,018
Aug-24 7,418 7,480 7,342 7,386 7,486 7,406 -80 467 1,032
Sep-24 7,340 7,446 7,302 7,346 7,436 7,364 -72 859,493 541,747
Oct-24 7,318 7,400 7,268 7,300 7,394 7,322 -72 327 527
Nov-24 7,288 7,360 7,252 7,278 7,370 7,296 -74 146 768
Dec-24 7,290 7,336 7,242 7,266 7,336 7,280 -56 101 486
Jan-25 7,274 7,332 7,218 7,256 7,322 7,268 -54 31,155 67,831
Feb-25 7,254 7,296 7,222 7,246 7,320 7,254 -66 39 153
Mar-25 7,256 7,306 7,220 7,246 7,314 7,248 -66 361 1,034
Apr-25 7,290 7,312 7,226 7,226 7,320 7,256 -64 6 18
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 552,776 lots, or 41.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,416 7,484 7,392 7,480 7,460 7,450 -10 48,833 42,893
Jul-24 7,394 7,456 7,374 7,438 7,424 7,424 0 4,536 23,336
Aug-24 7,386 7,478 7,386 7,468 7,434 7,442 8 873 15,648
Sep-24 7,402 7,504 7,402 7,488 7,466 7,462 -4 467,877 721,504
Nov-24 7,446 7,516 7,420 7,506 7,488 7,476 -12 1,142 8,610
Dec-24 7,476 7,558 7,474 7,542 7,536 7,522 -14 56 1,743
Jan-25 7,458 7,532 7,438 7,510 7,494 7,496 2 28,959 101,778
Mar-25 7,416 7,488 7,402 7,456 7,454 7,436 -18 500 1,478
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322