Softs Report 10/02/2026

DJ Global Food Prices Rise as Cereal and Sugar Costs Surge, UN Says — Update
By Giulia Petroni
World food prices rose in September, as transportation disruptions and weather concerns limited supplies and lifted prices for several crop-based commodities, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
The FAO’s food price index–which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities–averaged 136 points last month, up 1.5% from its August level and 5.8% higher than a year prior, driven by cereal and sugar prices.
“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad-based build-up in global commodity prices as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities,” Chief Economist Maximo Torero said Friday. “If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices.”
Sugar prices climbed 6.1% last month, marking their third consecutive monthly increase and their highest level since April 2025 on expectations of tighter global supplies in the 2026-27 season. Contributing to the tighter outlook are lower production expectations in Thailand, concerns over India’s crop prospects amid below-normal rainfall and strengthening El Nino conditions, heavy rains disrupting harvesting in Brazil’s Centre-South region, and a decline in sugar beet planting in the European Union.
Cereal prices rose 5.1% in September, reaching 17.2% above year-earlier levels. Wheat prices climbed to their highest level since August 2023, driven by trade disruptions in the Black Sea region and dry weather in parts of North America. Maize prices also hit a more than three-year high, supported by a tightening supply outlook following lower-than-expected yields in the U.S. and reduced export availability in Brazil. Sorghum, barley and rice prices also increased, with rice supported by weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies.
Vegetable-oil prices rose 0.9% in September and were more than 18% above year-earlier levels, driven mainly by higher palm oil prices amid strong global demand and concerns over dry weather in Southeast Asia. Sunflower oil prices fell on expectations of ample supplies from the Black Sea region, while soy and rapeseed oil prices were broadly stable.
Dairy prices were little changed in September, slipping 0.1% and remaining more than 19% below their year-earlier level. Higher milk powder prices, supported by strong Asian demand and limited prompt supplies, largely offset declines in cheese prices, while butter prices were broadly stable.
Meat prices edged lower in September, driven by declines in poultry prices amid ample export supplies from Brazil and weaker import demand from the EU. Pig meat prices also fell on abundant supplies in major exporting countries. Bovine and ovine meat prices were broadly stable, with stronger U.S. demand supporting Brazilian beef prices and firm global demand underpinning sheep meat prices in Oceania.

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on harvest progress and a strong US Dollar. The weather is expected to feature somewhat cooler temperatures and rains, especially in West Texas. The rains could create some quality issues with open bolls. The weekly export sales report showed strong demand. USDA this week showed that conditions are now 48% good to excellent. Progress is above average with the crop now 15% harvested and 67% opening bolls. Forecasts and reports of showers in Cotton areas continue for the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be warm but not hot in all areas.
Overnight News ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 14 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 75.50, 74.20, and 73.00 December, with resistance of 82.40, 84.00 and 85.30 December

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower yesterday. Prices remain in the upper end of the recent trading range. Showers are showing up in Florida and trees are recovering. The weather for the next crop is seasonal. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico and showers are developing in Brazil as the rainy season is starting on time.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 140.00, 137.00, and 135.00 September, with resistance at 156,00 159.00, and 167.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both lower yesterday as Brail crops are looking better with good weather and with improving raons. Trends are up in New York and in London. Brazil coffee is being offered now in increasing quantities as harvest is almost over despite increased rains. Conditions are called good for next crop development and the wet season is starting on time. The next crop is developing in the rest of South America amid scattered to isolated showers. Indonesia is now about done with its harvest. Asian conditions are called good. Other world production conditions are generally good. Mexico is in good condition, but Central America has been dry
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 259.20 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 270.00, 264.00, and 257.00 December, and resistance is at 300.00, 309.00 and 317.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 3200, 3140, and 3080 November, with resistance at 3610, 3890, and 3920 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: London and New York were higher on higher world petroleum prices. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in London and in New York. Drought in Brazil was a major concern but rains have returned to center-south regions. Refineries in the region are producing ethanol at the expense of Sugar. Indian production is less after hot and dry conditions and production in the rest of Asia could be hurt by El Nino weather. Higher world petroleum prices are supporting higher ethanol prices and could cause less Sugar to be produced.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1790, 1750, and 1720 March and resistance is 1930, 1960, and 2020 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 476.00, 451.00, and 441.00 December, with resistance at 522.00, 531.00, and 534.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were both mostly lower again yesterday. Daily and weekly trends are down. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa but it has now turned dry for the next crop. Dry conditions in Ivory Coast have created concerns about the prospects for 2026/27 production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 has ensured that short-term supplies remain ample. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year but demand has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 5060, 4990, and 4780 December, with resistance at 5880, 6200, and 6440 December. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 3790, 3770, and 3730 December, with resistance at 4300, 4510, and 4620 December.

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