Grains Report 10/02/2026

DJ Global Food Prices Rise as Cereal and Sugar Costs Surge, UN Says — Update
By Giulia Petroni
World food prices rose in September, as transportation disruptions and weather concerns limited supplies and lifted prices for several crop-based commodities, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
The FAO’s food price index–which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities–averaged 136 points last month, up 1.5% from its August level and 5.8% higher than a year prior, driven by cereal and sugar prices.
“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad-based build-up in global commodity prices as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities,” Chief Economist Maximo Torero said Friday. “If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices.”
Sugar prices climbed 6.1% last month, marking their third consecutive monthly increase and their highest level since April 2025 on expectations of tighter global supplies in the 2026-27 season. Contributing to the tighter outlook are lower production expectations in Thailand, concerns over India’s crop prospects amid below-normal rainfall and strengthening El Nino conditions, heavy rains disrupting harvesting in Brazil’s Centre-South region, and a decline in sugar beet planting in the European Union.
Cereal prices rose 5.1% in September, reaching 17.2% above year-earlier levels. Wheat prices climbed to their highest level since August 2023, driven by trade disruptions in the Black Sea region and dry weather in parts of North America. Maize prices also hit a more than three-year high, supported by a tightening supply outlook following lower-than-expected yields in the U.S. and reduced export availability in Brazil. Sorghum, barley and rice prices also increased, with rice supported by weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies.
Vegetable-oil prices rose 0.9% in September and were more than 18% above year-earlier levels, driven mainly by higher palm oil prices amid strong global demand and concerns over dry weather in Southeast Asia. Sunflower oil prices fell on expectations of ample supplies from the Black Sea region, while soy and rapeseed oil prices were broadly stable.
Dairy prices were little changed in September, slipping 0.1% and remaining more than 19% below their year-earlier level. Higher milk powder prices, supported by strong Asian demand and limited prompt supplies, largely offset declines in cheese prices, while butter prices were broadly stable.
Meat prices edged lower in September, driven by declines in poultry prices amid ample export supplies from Brazil and weaker import demand from the EU. Pig meat prices also fell on abundant supplies in major exporting countries. Bovine and ovine meat prices were broadly stable, with stronger U.S. demand supporting Brazilian beef prices and firm global demand underpinning sheep meat prices in Oceania.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat was lower in both markets again yesterday on follow through selling from bearish news from the USDA production report. Production was estimated at 1.533 billion bushels for All Wheat, above trade estimates of 1.527 billion. The quarterly stocks estimates were in line with trade estimates at 1.845 billion bushels. Both sides have reported an export pace more than 50% less than a year ago. The small grains production report showed stronger than expected production but the quarterly stocks report came in line with trade expectations implying better than expected demand. The US Winter Wheat planting is 27% complete. Conditions are mixed in the US Midwest. The weather is now featuring scattered showers for parts of the Midwest along with moderate temperatures after a got week last week. The Great Plains should get big rains in southern areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 665, 645, and 618 December, with resistance at 730, 736, and 742 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 729, 712, and 693 December, with resistance at 800, 807, and 819 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed lower yesterday. Brazil prices are strong on ideas of short production and El Nino fears for production on the next crop. Harvest is active in most states and is 80% complete. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice and was moderate last week. El Nino is threatening production in Asia and Indian prices remain high and are going higher, Trends are mixed on the daily charts and are up on the weekly charts,
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1609, 1565, and 1550 November and resistance is at 1670, 1699, and 1712 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower again yesterday on selling tied to the quarterly stocks report that showed higher than expected stocks at 2.095 billion bushels and on harvest progress. There is moderating weather in the western and southern Midwest with a lot of rain in the forecast mostly in the west this week. Ukraine and Russia are back at war again and shipping is very limited in both countries. It should be cooler with some wet weather in the Midwest this week. The crop conditions were steady last week and below aa year ago. Progress is about normal and the harvest is now 18% co The export sales report showed weaker demand.mplete. Anecdotal report indicate that the harvest has started in the southern Midwest and could get started in central areas later this week. Temperatures in the Midwest should be cooler this week amid mostly dry weather. Big rains are likely in the south. Oats were lower. The harvest is complete.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 218600 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down . Support is at 492, 481, and 471 December, and resistance is at 549, 554, and 560 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 406, 403, and 392 December, and resistance is at 426, 429, and 435 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as the quarterly stocks report was considered positive for prices. Stocks were estimated at 315 billion bushels. The export sales were considered strong. China is expected to buy more cargoes of US Soybeans before the US-China summit meetings in the coming weeks but the tariffs will remain high. The harvest is now 17% complete. Rain is expected this week in the south and cool and wet weather continues in the north. Condition is below a year ago and slightly improved from the previous week. Cooler temperatures and wet weather are expected for the next week in the Midwest. Big rains are likely in the south. There is some concern that El Nono could affect South American Soybeans production this year.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 1256, 1244, and 1232 November, and resistance is at 1335, 1348, and 1360 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 343.00 December, and resistance is at 368.00, 374.00,and 377.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 6660, 6600, and 6470 December, with resistance at 6920, 76960, and 7070 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again today on weakness in export demand and in Chicago. Daily chart trends are down. Canola was closed yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 805.00, 793.00, and 782.00 November, with resistance at 844.00, 856.00, and 868.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down. Support is at 4480, 4420, and 4360 December, with resistance at 4800, 4890, and 4960 December.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Oct 1115.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1130.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1152.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1187.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1240.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1240.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1120.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1135.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1157.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1192.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1245.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1245.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1085.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1030.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,400.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 374.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0825)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322