Last week was about tops and bottoms. Were the grains done with the weakness and are cattle topping out? Well, we got some partial answers this last week though the picture is still more of just an outline. The invincible cattle market finally felt some pressure, with more extended weakness breaking below support, a likely more notable, the cash market fell weaker. Corn was still weaker, unable to follow suit with the rallying wheat market. Beans were mixed, running low on fumes from last week’s RVO announcements. For some, there was a reversion back to the mean, mostly in the wheat and cattle markets, as the hog push higher continued.
Corn bears were back to spreading this week with July falling 15 ¾ cents and December slipping just 1 ¾ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress data indicated 94% of the US corn crop emerged as of June 15, now at matching the 5-year average. Ratings were tallied at 72% good to excellent up 1%, with a 379 score on the Brugler500 index, 1 points higher. EIA showed ethanol production back down 11,000 barrels per day from the week prior’s all time record to 1.009 million bpd in the week of 6/13. Stocks of ethanol saw an increase of 386,000 barrels to 24.12 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings improving from the week prior to 903,792 MT for the week that ended on June 12. That brought the total export commitments to 66.83 MMT, which is 98% of the new USDA full-year export forecast, and slightly below the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop sales totaled 154,998 MT.
The wheat complex was in rally mode this week. Chicago SRW futures led the charge, up 24 cents, with KC 22 1/2 cents higher. MPLS futures were up 4 ½ cents on the week. Some dryness in key parts of Russia and a slow US winter wheat harvest added to the strength. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat ratings improving another 4% to 5\% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 353, up 5 points. The crop was shown at 4% headed, behind the 6% average. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 52% good/excellent, down 2%, with the Brugler500 index down 7 points to 334. Harvest remains slow, with 10% of the crop out of the field, lagging the 16% normal pace. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business at 427,170 MT. Total commitments are 6.35 MMT, which is 28% of USDA’s export estimate and ahead of the 26% average pace.
Soybeans were mixed around this week, as July was down 1 ¾ cents and November was up 6 cents. July soybean meal fallout from last week’s RVO announcement, with $7.80/ton and bean oil up 386 points. USDA’s Crop Progress report indicated 93% of the US soybean crop planted by 6/15, now behind the 5-year average pace. Condition ratings were tallied at 62% good/excellent, 2 percentage points lower than last week, equating to 367 on the Brugler500 index, down 5 points. May crush from NOPA members was tallied at 192.83 mbu, which was 5% above the year prior and up from April. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings pushing to a 14-week high at 539,511 MT in the week of June 13. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 49.13 MMT. That is 98% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. New crop business continues to be light at just 75,151 MT.
Live cattle were extended the weakness this week, with June slipping back by $2.075. The cash market was pulling back this week, with southern sales mainly at $228, down $7-8, with northern action down $4-8 at $236. Feeders also saw weakness this week, with August dropping $3.975. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $6.11 week/week to $310.99. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some Friday weakness but still managed stout run this week. Choice was up $12.62 (3.3%) to $390.50, while Select was $13.45 higher to $376.95. Weekly beef production was down just 1% from last week at 480.1 million lbs this week, though that was a 74% decline from last year. Year to date beef production is now down 3.2%, as slaughter is 6.4% lower. Cattle on Feed data showed 1.886 million head placed in May, down 7.88% from last year, with marketings down 10.08% at 1.758 million head. June 1 on feed inventory was 11,442 head, down 1.22% from a year ago. Export Sales data showed 11,711 MT of beef sold in the week of June 12. Shipments were tallied at 13,593 MT in that week, which was down 6.53% from the previous week.
Hogs continued the rally this week, up another $3.30 on the week to post more contract highs. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $11.02 this week at 107.59 as of June 18. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout shot up another $4.08 on the week (3.5%) to $122.14/cwt. That is the highest since August 2022. All primals were reported higher, with the butt (+5.3%) and picnic (6.3%) leading the charge. Pork production was down 0.5% from the week prior and 1.1% below the same week a year ago at 508.5 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.0% lower. Weekly Export Sales data showed a bounce back in pork sales during the week of June 12 to 28,196 MT. Shipments during that week totaled 30,248 MT, down 10.4% from last week.
Cotton futures posted a 132 point drop this week in the July contract, with December 114 points lower. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 85% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 90% pace from the 5-year average. Condition ratings were 48% good/excellent, down 1, or 328 on the Brugler500 index, up 4 points on the week via a smaller portion of the crop rated poor/very poor. Export Sales data showed a total of 83,198 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on June 13. Shipments pushed to a 3-week high at 204,694 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.669 million RB, 109% of the USDA export forecast and behind the 115% average pace. New crop business was 274,891 RB. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was just 1 point higher this week, to 54.03 cents/lb.
Market Watch
Next week will be back on a normal 5-day week, as the next holiday is on the following week. USDA will release the weekly Export Inspections on Monday morning, and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Tuesday is the first notice day for July Cotton Futures. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal with the Cold Storage report release that afternoon. Thursday morning will see the delayed release of the Export Sales report, as well as the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Friday will see the release of the monthly PCE data.
Tech Talk: December Corn
Decisions. That is what the December corn market is going to have to do here shortly, make a decision. We have been in a descending triangle pattern for the better part of 2 months (4 months if you really want to get broad. However, by the point at which the downtrend line ($4.46 1/2) and the uptrend line (more like lateral support around $4.34) meet, the market will likely pick a break. That comes down to near the end of the month reports on June 30 (actually works it’s way into July, but we’ll likely have a breakout in either direction. For all intents and purposes, the count would be ~24 ½ cents. Outside of that, stochastics are in neutral and lacing much directionality. There is 100-day moving average resistance at $4.52 ½, with the 40-day working as resistance recently at $4.43 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Reverting. Ag Marketing Report 06/23/2025
Last week was about tops and bottoms. Were the grains done with the weakness and are cattle topping out? Well, we got some partial answers this last week though the picture is still more of just an outline. The invincible cattle market finally felt some pressure, with more extended weakness breaking below support, a likely more notable, the cash market fell weaker. Corn was still weaker, unable to follow suit with the rallying wheat market. Beans were mixed, running low on fumes from last week’s RVO announcements. For some, there was a reversion back to the mean, mostly in the wheat and cattle markets, as the hog push higher continued.
Corn bears were back to spreading this week with July falling 15 ¾ cents and December slipping just 1 ¾ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress data indicated 94% of the US corn crop emerged as of June 15, now at matching the 5-year average. Ratings were tallied at 72% good to excellent up 1%, with a 379 score on the Brugler500 index, 1 points higher. EIA showed ethanol production back down 11,000 barrels per day from the week prior’s all time record to 1.009 million bpd in the week of 6/13. Stocks of ethanol saw an increase of 386,000 barrels to 24.12 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings improving from the week prior to 903,792 MT for the week that ended on June 12. That brought the total export commitments to 66.83 MMT, which is 98% of the new USDA full-year export forecast, and slightly below the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop sales totaled 154,998 MT.
The wheat complex was in rally mode this week. Chicago SRW futures led the charge, up 24 cents, with KC 22 1/2 cents higher. MPLS futures were up 4 ½ cents on the week. Some dryness in key parts of Russia and a slow US winter wheat harvest added to the strength. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat ratings improving another 4% to 5\% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 353, up 5 points. The crop was shown at 4% headed, behind the 6% average. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 52% good/excellent, down 2%, with the Brugler500 index down 7 points to 334. Harvest remains slow, with 10% of the crop out of the field, lagging the 16% normal pace. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business at 427,170 MT. Total commitments are 6.35 MMT, which is 28% of USDA’s export estimate and ahead of the 26% average pace.
Soybeans were mixed around this week, as July was down 1 ¾ cents and November was up 6 cents. July soybean meal fallout from last week’s RVO announcement, with $7.80/ton and bean oil up 386 points. USDA’s Crop Progress report indicated 93% of the US soybean crop planted by 6/15, now behind the 5-year average pace. Condition ratings were tallied at 62% good/excellent, 2 percentage points lower than last week, equating to 367 on the Brugler500 index, down 5 points. May crush from NOPA members was tallied at 192.83 mbu, which was 5% above the year prior and up from April. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings pushing to a 14-week high at 539,511 MT in the week of June 13. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 49.13 MMT. That is 98% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. New crop business continues to be light at just 75,151 MT.
Live cattle were extended the weakness this week, with June slipping back by $2.075. The cash market was pulling back this week, with southern sales mainly at $228, down $7-8, with northern action down $4-8 at $236. Feeders also saw weakness this week, with August dropping $3.975. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $6.11 week/week to $310.99. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some Friday weakness but still managed stout run this week. Choice was up $12.62 (3.3%) to $390.50, while Select was $13.45 higher to $376.95. Weekly beef production was down just 1% from last week at 480.1 million lbs this week, though that was a 74% decline from last year. Year to date beef production is now down 3.2%, as slaughter is 6.4% lower. Cattle on Feed data showed 1.886 million head placed in May, down 7.88% from last year, with marketings down 10.08% at 1.758 million head. June 1 on feed inventory was 11,442 head, down 1.22% from a year ago. Export Sales data showed 11,711 MT of beef sold in the week of June 12. Shipments were tallied at 13,593 MT in that week, which was down 6.53% from the previous week.
Hogs continued the rally this week, up another $3.30 on the week to post more contract highs. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $11.02 this week at 107.59 as of June 18. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout shot up another $4.08 on the week (3.5%) to $122.14/cwt. That is the highest since August 2022. All primals were reported higher, with the butt (+5.3%) and picnic (6.3%) leading the charge. Pork production was down 0.5% from the week prior and 1.1% below the same week a year ago at 508.5 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.0% lower. Weekly Export Sales data showed a bounce back in pork sales during the week of June 12 to 28,196 MT. Shipments during that week totaled 30,248 MT, down 10.4% from last week.
Cotton futures posted a 132 point drop this week in the July contract, with December 114 points lower. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 85% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 90% pace from the 5-year average. Condition ratings were 48% good/excellent, down 1, or 328 on the Brugler500 index, up 4 points on the week via a smaller portion of the crop rated poor/very poor. Export Sales data showed a total of 83,198 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on June 13. Shipments pushed to a 3-week high at 204,694 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.669 million RB, 109% of the USDA export forecast and behind the 115% average pace. New crop business was 274,891 RB. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was just 1 point higher this week, to 54.03 cents/lb.
Market Watch
Next week will be back on a normal 5-day week, as the next holiday is on the following week. USDA will release the weekly Export Inspections on Monday morning, and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Tuesday is the first notice day for July Cotton Futures. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal with the Cold Storage report release that afternoon. Thursday morning will see the delayed release of the Export Sales report, as well as the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Friday will see the release of the monthly PCE data.
Tech Talk: December Corn
Decisions. That is what the December corn market is going to have to do here shortly, make a decision. We have been in a descending triangle pattern for the better part of 2 months (4 months if you really want to get broad. However, by the point at which the downtrend line ($4.46 1/2) and the uptrend line (more like lateral support around $4.34) meet, the market will likely pick a break. That comes down to near the end of the month reports on June 30 (actually works it’s way into July, but we’ll likely have a breakout in either direction. For all intents and purposes, the count would be ~24 ½ cents. Outside of that, stochastics are in neutral and lacing much directionality. There is 100-day moving average resistance at $4.52 ½, with the 40-day working as resistance recently at $4.43 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.