Softs Report 06/23/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.79 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower on Friday and for the week and trends are down in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. Production estimates from USDA remain well below those from a year ago. USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 224.00, 212.00, and 200.00 July, with resistance at 246.00, 261.00, and 271.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday and for the week as the market feels supplies are increasing, particularly the Robusta availability in Brazil. London moved to new lows for the move. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year. Cooxupe said on Wednesday that its farmers had harvested 17.8% of the expected 2025 crop as of June 13, from 26.6% last year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 278.17 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 317.00, 311.00, and 305.00 July, and resistance is at 338.00, 343.00 and 354.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 3810, 3750, and 3690 July, with resistance at 4110, 4250, and 4310 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower for the week and at new weekly lows for the move. London closed higher for the week. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featured above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. These ideas have helped support Sugar futures.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1560, 1540, and 1510 July and resistance is at 1660, 1680, and 1710 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 444.00 August, with resistance at 487.00, 491.00, and 499.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were sharply lower on Friday and lower for the week on speculative selling. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Pod counts for the mid crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production this season, and current weather is dry for the crops for the coming crop. Trends are down again in London and in New York. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast reached 1.540 million tons in May.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 8300, 8090, and 7780 July, with resistance at 9050, 9600, and 9930 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5660, 5540, and 5420 July, with resistance at 6040, 6170, and 6400 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322