Softs Report 08/19/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week in response to weakness in Chicago grains and oilseeds and also Crude Oil futures in New York, and on ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 65.20, 64.60, and 63.40 December, with resistance of 70.80, 73.00 and 73.70 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 271,586
: Positions :
: 32,535 88,904 65,123 78,450 82,522 79,893 18,869 256,001 255,419: 15,585 16,166
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,663) :
: -1,615 -186 3,945 1,134 -144 -1,768 127 1,695 3,740: 1,968 -77
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 32.7 24.0 28.9 30.4 29.4 6.9 94.3 94.0: 5.7 6.0
: Total Traders: 313 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 100 89 64 62 43 19 241 226:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week despite forecasts for no tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week as the current tropical system should stay in the ocean and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 393.00 September, with resistance at 467.00, 471.00, and 479.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,294 :
: Positions :
: 1,669 6,845 747 0 198 2,627 471 40 983 504 3,301 :
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 :
: 62 -55 14 0 -77 -71 -35 9 -163 -66 209 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 55.7 6.1 0.0 1.6 21.4 3.8 0.3 8.0 4.1 26.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 7 8 4 0 . 17 5 . 13 7 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week with offers from Vietnam still hard to find but offers from Brazil and Indonesia in the market. Reports indicate that Brazil suffered some light frosts in southern areas away from Coffee regions and the weather is one of the main reasons to play the long side of the market. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 233.61 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 230.00, 228.00, and 225.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 255.00 and 261.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4320, 4190, and 4070 September, with resistance at 4740, 4800, and 4860 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 229,992
: Positions :
: 49,976 11,016 50,921 63,471 153,787 57,166 9,144 221,533 224,868: 8,459 5,124
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -59,440) :
: -363 558 -38,554 -13,854 -8,426 -6,382 -11,946 -59,154 -58,368: -286 -1,072
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.7 4.8 22.1 27.6 66.9 24.9 4.0 96.3 97.8: 3.7 2.2
: Total Traders: 361 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 58 105 92 117 48 21 306 265:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week, but held to the weekly trading range on a lack of new bullish news. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are turning drier in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are falling but not enough to impact prices much.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 October and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 504.00, 498.00, and 492.00 October, with resistance at 533.00, 538.00, and 544.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 963,137
: Positions :
: 83,662 129,347 219,473 380,248 490,416 215,389 59,447 898,772 898,683: 64,365 64,454
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 7,407) :
: 2,487 -10,689 13,174 -7,965 5,262 -453 3,310 7,244 11,057: 163 -3,650
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.7 13.4 22.8 39.5 50.9 22.4 6.2 93.3 93.3: 6.7 6.7
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 59 89 73 71 37 19 214 197:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed a little lower in consolidation trading last week as tight supply conditions and reports of dry and hot weather in Ghana, but as prospects for the next crops are called good in Ivory Coast. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 8000, 7690, and 7340 September, with resistance at 9540, 9800, and 10310 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6290, 5880, and 5820 September, with resistance at 6880, 7080, and 7320 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 187,537
: Positions :
: 27,178 16,128 67,002 53,589 84,713 28,584 13,931 176,353 181,774: 11,184 5,763
: Changes from: August 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -5,007) :
: 454 1,107 -176 -4,374 -5,008 -21 -525 -4,117 -4,602: -890 -406
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.5 8.6 35.7 28.6 45.2 15.2 7.4 94.0 96.9: 6.0 3.1
: Total Traders: 167 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 37 66 38 35 29 17 156 123:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322