Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Waller Speech at 8:15 A.M., CB Leading Index MoM at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
US housing starts in July fell 6.8% from a year ago. This marked the 3rdconsecutive month below last year, and it was the lowest monthly housing starts figure since May 2020, the height of the pandemic! US housing starts of 1.238 Mil homes was the smallest since July 2018. Building permits issued in July were 3% less than a year ago at 1.396 million versus the average trade estimate of 1.43 million. Permits for buildings with 5 units or less fell 12.4%$, while single-family permits were down 0.1%. It was the smallest July building permit total since 2019. The US housing market is in retreat.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
August Central US Rain More Scattered Showers in Nature; Dry Trend Forecast into Sep 1st:
Rains have exited the far eastern Midwest/KY and a drier pattern will be established through the remainder of August. Ag Resources (ARC) showed a graphic that displayed Aug 1-25th % of normal rainfall and assumes the current 10-day forecast is correct. Recent rainfall in ND, IA, MO, and northern Illinois provides the moisture needed to finish crops, but the month looks to be a story of have and have nots. Rapid soil moisture loss impacted Southern Illinois, the Plains, and Delta. An expansion of high-pressure Ridging dominates the N American weather pattern into Sep 1. Precipitation will be confined to lite/moderate ridge-riding sysrems across the N Plains and Ontario. Fortunately extreme heat stays absent from the primary Corn Belt. Temps in the upper 80’s/low 100’s blanket the S Plains, NE, and Delta/Southeast. Flash droughts will form and have an adverse impact on late maturing crops.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour Preview
The largest private crop tour in the United States kicks off today. The tour, organized by agricultural newsletter Pro Farmer, deploys teams of volunteer scouts to survey hundreds of corn and soybean fields across a seven-state area of the Midwest. There are both eastern and western legs of the tour. The states surveyed include: OH, IN, IL, MN, IA, SD, and NE. Results of the tour-surveyed state and forecasted national yields for corn and soybeans will be released Thursday. The traditional estimating procedure for corn has been counting harvestable ears in two 30’ long rows. Length and girth of the ears are checked by selecting three specific corn ears from each row – the 5th, 8th and 11th ear. Ears are taken irrespectively of size, and then the length (of grain bare cobs and aborted kernels are not counted) and girth are measured for each ear, along with kernel counts. Yield is derived by multiplying the average ear population by the average number of kernel rows, and divided by row width. CBOT futures are mixed to start the week with world wheat futures are sagging while summer row crop futures bounce ahead of the start of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. With the DNC in Chicago my advice is simple, you already fixed the economy, alright, and moving to the Affordable Health Care Act is just another reason to desire LESS GOVERNMENT. Price caps and Government healthcare historically never work. Ask Gray Davis how price caps on energy worked for California. The only way to fix the economy is the private sector, tax cuts will benefit all, and is a job creator, not what we’ve seen the past 4-years. And look at Venezuela, these policies do not work and lead to socialism and communism.
Price Controls Be Damned – Free Markets Seek Own Level. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/19/2024
We kickoff the day with Fed Waller Speech at 8:15 A.M., CB Leading Index MoM at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
US housing starts in July fell 6.8% from a year ago. This marked the 3rdconsecutive month below last year, and it was the lowest monthly housing starts figure since May 2020, the height of the pandemic! US housing starts of 1.238 Mil homes was the smallest since July 2018. Building permits issued in July were 3% less than a year ago at 1.396 million versus the average trade estimate of 1.43 million. Permits for buildings with 5 units or less fell 12.4%$, while single-family permits were down 0.1%. It was the smallest July building permit total since 2019. The US housing market is in retreat.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
August Central US Rain More Scattered Showers in Nature; Dry Trend Forecast into Sep 1st:
Rains have exited the far eastern Midwest/KY and a drier pattern will be established through the remainder of August. Ag Resources (ARC) showed a graphic that displayed Aug 1-25th % of normal rainfall and assumes the current 10-day forecast is correct. Recent rainfall in ND, IA, MO, and northern Illinois provides the moisture needed to finish crops, but the month looks to be a story of have and have nots. Rapid soil moisture loss impacted Southern Illinois, the Plains, and Delta. An expansion of high-pressure Ridging dominates the N American weather pattern into Sep 1. Precipitation will be confined to lite/moderate ridge-riding sysrems across the N Plains and Ontario. Fortunately extreme heat stays absent from the primary Corn Belt. Temps in the upper 80’s/low 100’s blanket the S Plains, NE, and Delta/Southeast. Flash droughts will form and have an adverse impact on late maturing crops.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour Preview
The largest private crop tour in the United States kicks off today. The tour, organized by agricultural newsletter Pro Farmer, deploys teams of volunteer scouts to survey hundreds of corn and soybean fields across a seven-state area of the Midwest. There are both eastern and western legs of the tour. The states surveyed include: OH, IN, IL, MN, IA, SD, and NE. Results of the tour-surveyed state and forecasted national yields for corn and soybeans will be released Thursday. The traditional estimating procedure for corn has been counting harvestable ears in two 30’ long rows. Length and girth of the ears are checked by selecting three specific corn ears from each row – the 5th, 8th and 11th ear. Ears are taken irrespectively of size, and then the length (of grain bare cobs and aborted kernels are not counted) and girth are measured for each ear, along with kernel counts. Yield is derived by multiplying the average ear population by the average number of kernel rows, and divided by row width. CBOT futures are mixed to start the week with world wheat futures are sagging while summer row crop futures bounce ahead of the start of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. With the DNC in Chicago my advice is simple, you already fixed the economy, alright, and moving to the Affordable Health Care Act is just another reason to desire LESS GOVERNMENT. Price caps and Government healthcare historically never work. Ask Gray Davis how price caps on energy worked for California. The only way to fix the economy is the private sector, tax cuts will benefit all, and is a job creator, not what we’ve seen the past 4-years. And look at Venezuela, these policies do not work and lead to socialism and communism.
Free Markets For Free Men!
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn