Grains Report 07/22/2024

NO COMMENTS NEXT FRIDAY OR THE FOLLOWING MONDAY

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in KC and Minneapolis last week but higher in Chicago despite some positive demand news. The weekly export sales report was good and there have been a lot of sales into North Africa this week from Russia and Europe. US harvest progress and ideas of good yields and crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 525 and 489 September. Support is at 526, 520, and 514 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 535 and 507 September. Support is at 546, 540, and 534 September, with resistance at 568, 590, and 601 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 575 and 541 September. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 September, and resistance is at 598, 603, and 61-0 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 506,230
: Positions :
: 55,782 145,096 151,464 111,998 100,836 150,666 68,344 469,910 465,740: 36,320 40,490
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: 20,695) :
: -1,488 -2,051 11,894 9,305 -32 619 10,078 20,330 19,889: 364 806
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.0 28.7 29.9 22.1 19.9 29.8 13.5 92.8 92.0: 7.2 8.0
: Total Traders: 396 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 107 117 111 107 46 35 313 309:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 258,571
: Positions :
: 28,667 69,787 52,396 65,666 79,482 94,238 34,559 240,968 236,223: 17,603 22,348
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,651) :
: 715 -2,760 3,810 -704 1,437 1,495 3,539 5,316 6,026: -665 -1,375
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 27.0 20.3 25.4 30.7 36.4 13.4 93.2 91.4: 6.8 8.6
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 47 66 67 76 73 36 21 198 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 83,560 :
: Positions :
: 46,933 24,128 4,203 0 83 10,722 36,083 6,475 1,285 604 3,808 :
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 :
: 2,706 -192 364 0 28 302 1,940 535 -466 21 837 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.2 28.9 5.0 0.0 0.1 12.8 43.2 7.7 1.5 0.7 4.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 122 :
: 56 40 8 0 . 12 26 10 5 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week on speculative selling as futures continued to reflect mostly good growing conditions and increased planted area. Hurricane Beryl has brought beneficial rains to Arkansas and other parts of the Delta but damaged crops in Texas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. However, prices appear oversold right now and a rally is possible at any time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1382 September. Support is at 1412, 1400, and 1388 September and resistance is at 1456, 1471, and 1489 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,001 :
: Positions :
: 5,109 5,068 0 247 0 1,121 2,258 0 1,051 369 874 :
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 :
: 490 -420 0 147 0 -43 620 0 106 51 193 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.1 50.7 0.0 2.5 0.0 11.2 22.6 0.0 10.5 3.7 8.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 21 15 0 . 0 7 8 0 9 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher last week. The weekly export sales report showed moderate sales. Selling was based based on ideas that future reflected big yield potential amid good growing conditions seen in the Midwest. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota that have had way too much rain and flooding is still reported. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Corn did not move to new lows last week and it is possible that the current down trend is near its end.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 133,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 388, 385, and 382 September, and resistance is at 403, 412, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 301, 296, and 290 September, and resistance is at 338, 350, and 363 September

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,074,692
: Positions :
: 135,537 452,382 675,103 619,272 517,389 448,531 208,698 1,878,442 1,853,572: 196,250 221,120
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: 36,526) :
: 600 -3,637 22,828 19,448 22,600 -8,031 -3,658 34,844 38,133: 1,681 -1,608
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.5 21.8 32.5 29.8 24.9 21.6 10.1 90.5 89.3: 9.5 10.7
: Total Traders: 827 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 166 165 221 365 335 53 38 698 669:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,534 :
: Positions :
: 2,062 1,462 199 475 7 0 1,533 0 739 474 170 :
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 :
: 180 -431 -13 297 -1 0 209 0 114 38 80 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.3 26.4 3.6 8.6 0.1 0.0 27.7 0.0 13.4 8.6 3.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 7 7 . . . 0 6 0 6 4 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower last week as the weather improved and demand did not. Soybeans and Meal futures were much lower on the weekly charts as July went off the board and stopped being the nearest futures contract. Demand news was strong for both Soybeans and Soybean Meal with big sales announced on the daily system. The weekly export sales report showed new sales to China and this was positive as well. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the weekend and again yesterday. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 105,000 tons of US Soybean Meal
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1068, 1056, and 1044 August, and resistance is at 1108, 1130, and 1151 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 318.00 August. Support is at 331.00, 329.00, and 326.00 August, and resistance is at 341.00, 344.00, and 351.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4660 and 4890 August. Support is at 3910, 3840, and 3790 August, with resistance at 3960, 4000, and 6050 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,104,005
: Positions :
: 54,081 238,598 337,022 462,642 352,562 193,465 100,990 1,047,210 1,029,173: 56,795 74,832
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: 60,086) :
: -167 8,578 45,072 15,652 -6,472 -1,116 10,315 59,441 57,492: 645 2,593
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.9 21.6 30.5 41.9 31.9 17.5 9.1 94.9 93.2: 5.1 6.8
: Total Traders: 555 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 116 154 177 192 187 47 27 465 452:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 611,256
: Positions :
: 64,155 104,694 158,728 204,534 295,310 151,446 25,577 578,863 584,309: 32,393 26,947
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: 17,032) :
: 406 2,512 7,311 9,332 4,938 -1,801 2,093 15,248 16,854: 1,785 178
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 17.1 26.0 33.5 48.3 24.8 4.2 94.7 95.6: 5.3 4.4
: Total Traders: 317 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 72 95 100 94 41 23 270 238:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 596,222
: Positions :
: 82,674 80,026 166,731 159,952 278,593 134,565 37,516 543,921 562,865: 52,300 33,356
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: 16,689) :
: -14,177 18,551 12,313 13,120 -23,855 2,501 5,901 13,757 12,910: 2,932 3,779
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 13.4 28.0 26.8 46.7 22.6 6.3 91.2 94.4: 8.8 5.6
: Total Traders: 327 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 84 101 106 98 40 24 268 262:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on apparent short covering and new speculative buying even with ideas of expanding world oilseeds production. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher last week and trends started to turn up on the weekly charts as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 669.00 and 702.00 November. Support is at 636.00, 627.00, and 618.00 November, with resistance at 664.00, 673.00, and 680.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3820, 3790, and 3770 October, with resistance at 3980, 4040, and 4100 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 43,856 :
: Positions :
: 33,281 14,445 880 14,955 350 600 3,585 0 835 2,591 7,870 :
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 :
: 385 850 0 -550 0 -40 320 0 -85 -500 1,470 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 75.9 32.9 2.0 34.1 0.8 1.4 8.2 0.0 1.9 5.9 17.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :
: 9 11 . 4 . . . 0 5 5 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 287,325 :
: Positions :
: 242,923 90,457 2,697 14,346 312 7,228 149,385 9,861 15,391 12,680 7,741 :
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 :
: 6,464 -2,115 429 249 -1 2,232 13,506 -815 2,349 269 -72 :
:Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 84.5 31.5 0.9 5.0 0.1 2.5 52.0 3.4 5.4 4.4 2.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 314 :
: 51 60 4 6 . 12 89 23 44 73 37 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 61 July 137 Sep
49 Sep
95 Aug

August 76 Sep 137 Sep 49 Sep 95 Nov

Sep 82 Sep 145 Sep 48 Sep 90 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Aug 912.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 907.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 887.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 892.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Aug 915.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 910.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 895.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 917.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 850.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,070.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 345.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6795)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 97,958 lots, or 4.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,510 4,529 4,504 4,524 4,512 4,516 4 77,565 126,889
Nov-24 4,458 4,477 4,449 4,474 4,453 4,466 13 2,608 19,372
Jan-25 4,420 4,440 4,417 4,437 4,422 4,429 7 16,166 48,471
Mar-25 4,399 4,414 4,394 4,410 4,397 4,402 5 1,245 4,390
May-25 4,431 4,446 4,424 4,443 4,427 4,439 12 358 2,933
Jul-25 4,412 4,432 4,411 4,422 4,409 4,420 11 16 106
Corn
Turnover: 545,908 lots, or 13.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,398 2,414 2,396 2,406 2,391 2,405 14 380,393 746,000
Nov-24 2,345 2,365 2,345 2,358 2,343 2,357 14 76,508 317,325
Jan-25 2,313 2,328 2,313 2,322 2,312 2,322 10 67,990 308,664
Mar-25 2,310 2,323 2,310 2,315 2,309 2,317 8 13,007 71,218
May-25 2,359 2,369 2,358 2,365 2,356 2,363 7 1,193 9,370
Jul-25 2,367 2,376 2,364 2,372 2,365 2,370 5 6,817 6,536
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,642,587 lots, or 5.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 3,130 3,157 3,115 3,139 3,104 3,134 30 3,948 38,256
Sep-24 3,157 3,180 3,138 3,163 3,128 3,158 30 1,041,876 1,433,181
Nov-24 3,195 3,226 3,180 3,212 3,172 3,203 31 86,169 488,072
Dec-24 3,232 3,274 3,225 3,265 3,212 3,256 44 7,675 47,274
Jan-25 3,227 3,256 3,212 3,242 3,204 3,235 31 347,376 785,730
Mar-25 3,094 3,106 3,073 3,097 3,069 3,091 22 17,920 61,585
May-25 2,997 3,007 2,985 2,997 2,981 2,997 16 130,833 610,263
Jul-25 3,005 3,018 2,994 3,004 2,991 3,006 15 6,790 15,196
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,080,769 lots, or 84.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 7,854 7,930 7,724 7,904 7,800 7,822 22 124 1,151
Sep-24 7,892 7,992 7,732 7,958 7,836 7,866 30 921,627 396,766
Oct-24 7,800 7,906 7,680 7,880 7,768 7,806 38 2,622 3,638
Nov-24 7,794 7,858 7,652 7,834 7,730 7,740 10 550 461
Dec-24 7,748 7,820 7,640 7,806 7,706 7,722 16 213 304
Jan-25 7,750 7,808 7,624 7,792 7,700 7,722 22 139,176 236,869
Feb-25 7,712 7,786 7,620 7,766 7,676 7,730 54 75 330
Mar-25 7,676 7,782 7,620 7,756 7,676 7,730 54 198 2,616
Apr-25 7,666 7,752 7,630 7,732 7,658 7,696 38 16 225
May-25 7,676 7,730 7,588 7,722 7,644 7,676 32 16,087 46,141
Jun-25 7,650 7,694 7,562 7,694 7,630 7,600 -30 55 106
Jul-25 7,622 7,630 7,500 7,618 7,608 7,552 -56 26 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 632,089 lots, or 4.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 7,670 7,786 7,646 7,772 7,654 7,712 58 3,291 6,749
Sep-24 7,728 7,800 7,658 7,776 7,686 7,736 50 475,967 537,517
Nov-24 7,720 7,800 7,662 7,784 7,692 7,742 50 6,522 22,912
Dec-24 7,806 7,880 7,744 7,862 7,774 7,818 44 128 1,561
Jan-25 7,788 7,858 7,714 7,838 7,752 7,796 44 127,039 303,660
Mar-25 7,682 7,754 7,616 7,740 7,636 7,702 66 385 3,235
May-25 7,604 7,660 7,522 7,646 7,564 7,600 36 18,740 94,171
Jul-25 7,568 7,642 7,526 7,618 7,536 7,580 44 17 36
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322