Softs Report 07/22/2024

NO COMMENTS THIS FRIDAY OR THE FOLLOWING MONDAY

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week in choppy trading. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions. USDA showed a decrease in production conditions for the crops in its reports yesterday that were the result of some extreme weather seen recently in Texas and the Southeast. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 70.00, 68.80, and 67.60 December, with resistance of 73.70, 74.40 and 76.80 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 250,510
: Positions :
: 30,466 74,957 57,692 64,492 88,869 83,872 14,855 236,521 236,373: 13,988 14,137
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,471) :
: 2,198 1,567 2,867 265 2,217 -633 245 4,697 6,896: 1,774 -426
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 29.9 23.0 25.7 35.5 33.5 5.9 94.4 94.4: 5.6 5.6
: Total Traders: 313 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 109 86 56 56 47 21 233 225:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week as the hurricane watch continued but nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts. Traders also continued to react to the USDA production reports released on Friday that showed slight increases in production in Florida and California. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 421.00, 410.00, and 403.00 September, with resistance at 443.00, 454.00, and 478.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,900 :
: Positions :
: 1,457 7,854 935 0 104 3,132 552 46 1,640 497 2,957 :
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 :
: -188 41 36 0 -28 225 39 -20 189 -6 107 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 60.9 7.2 0.0 0.8 24.3 4.3 0.4 12.7 3.8 22.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 7 8 5 0 . 18 . . 15 7 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher on Friday on reports of better rains in Vietnam recently and reports of weaker premiums in Indonesia. Both markets were a little lower last week. There are still reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market. Offers from Vietnam are reported to be down significantly and the current crop in Brazil along with the next crop in Vietnam s reported to be smaller. These markets are up sharply one day and down sharply the next, but the rally days are bigger than the loss days. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam recently to help crops there. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 239.95 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 6 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 816 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 234.00, 228.00, and 222.00 September, and resistance is at 242.00, 250.00 and 258.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4380, 4300, and 4220 July, with resistance at 4550, 4680, and 4730 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 276,851
: Positions :
: 60,893 13,037 80,203 63,018 162,025 63,798 16,039 267,912 271,304: 8,939 5,547
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,318) :
: -2,999 47 1,107 5,119 819 211 1,658 3,438 3,631: -120 -313
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.0 4.7 29.0 22.8 58.5 23.0 5.8 96.8 98.0: 3.2 2.0
: Total Traders: 393 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 136 63 107 95 128 50 21 325 283:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again Friday and lower for the week as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental and as growing conditions improved in Brazil. The trading yesterday implied that futures have gone down enough for now. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1880, 1860, and 1800 October and resistance is at 1950, 1990, and 2050 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 538.00, 530.00, and 526.00 October, with resistance at 572.00, 581.00, and 599.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 905,953
: Positions :
: 81,001 88,858 184,216 354,165 524,932 218,232 48,847 837,614 846,852: 68,339 59,101
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: -14,254) :
: 2,336 3,639 -15,366 7,006 1,147 -2,528 -1,828 -8,552 -12,408: -5,702 -1,846
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 9.8 20.3 39.1 57.9 24.1 5.4 92.5 93.5: 7.5 6.5
: Total Traders: 229 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 52 73 68 67 38 20 200 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday and lower for the week. Weather reports indicate it is raining in Ivory Coast and Ghana right now. The current rains can help production of the next crop but have also created disease concerns about the pods. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. The north American and European grinds were stronger in data released last week, but the Asian grind was down a little. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 7600, 7520, and 6960 September, with resistance at 8670, 8960, and 9540 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 6250, 5920, and 5360 September, with resistance at 6830, 7420, and 795a0 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 16, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 225,398
: Positions :
: 26,051 14,491 97,830 58,768 93,292 31,096 13,406 213,744 219,019: 11,653 6,379
: Changes from: July 9, 2024 (Change in open interest: -4,617) :
: 2,028 745 -3,627 -1,696 -1,052 -809 -1,468 -4,103 -5,402: -513 785
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 6.4 43.4 26.1 41.4 13.8 5.9 94.8 97.2: 5.2 2.8
: Total Traders: 173 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 38 74 36 33 29 18 159 134:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322