Grains Report 03/06/2024

DJ U.S. March Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2022-2023
Corn 2,141 2,075-2,172 2,172 1,360
Soybeans 319 293-355 315 264
Wheat 658 648-682 658 570
2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 2,152 315 653
Allendale 2,172 335 658
Doane 2,075 300 650
Grain Cycles 2,147 315 658
Linn Group 2,125 314 658
Sid Love Consulting 2,122 315 658
Marex Group 2,172 325 658
Midland Research 2,172 315 658
Midwest Market Solutions 2,095 355 650
Northstar Commodity 2,170 320 650
Ocean State Research 2,164 293 681
Prime Ag 2,172 315 658
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 2,172 320 665
RJ O’Brien 2,092 353 648
StoneX 2,077 295 682
US Commodities Inc. 2,155 310 650
Vantage RM 2,152 320 658
Zaner Ag 2,157 320 658

DJ March World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World 2023-24 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA February USDA 2022-23
Corn 320.7 317.0-323.2 322.1 300.3
Soybeans 114.5 111.0-117.0 116.0 103.6
Wheat 259.1 257.0-260.2 259.4 271.2
2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 321.8 114.5 259.2
Allendale 322.1 117.0 259.0
Grain Cycles 320.5 114.0 258.0
Linn Group 317.0 111.0 260.0
Marex Group 322.0 117.0 260.0
Midwest Market Solutions 323.2 116.5 260.0
Northstar Commodity 322.0 115.0 257.0
Ocean State Research 321.5 115.0 260.0
Prime Ag 321.0 114.0 259.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 320.0 115.0 259.4
StoneX 318.7 113.4 260.2
US Commodities Inc. 318.0 112.0 259.0
Zaner Ag 320.7 114.1 257.7

DJ March Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2022-23
Corn 122.4 118.0-125.0 124.0 137.0
Soybeans 152.5 148.0-156.0 156.0 162.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 123.7 153.0
Allendale 124.0 153.0
Doane 120.0 152.0
Linn Group 118.0 148.0
Marex Group 122.0 156.0
Midland Research 120.0 151.0
Midwest Market Solutions 124.0 155.0
Northstar Commodity 125.0 154.0
Ocean State Research 123.0 154.0
Prime Ag 123.0 153.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 123.0 151.6
StoneX 124.4 151.6
US Commodities Inc. 120.0 151.0
Zaner Ag 123.0 152.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2022-23
Corn 55.0 54.0-57.0 55.0 35.0
Soybeans 50.2 49.5-52.0 50.0 25.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 55.0 50.0
Allendale 55.0 50.0
Doane 55.0 50.0
Linn Group 55.0 52.0
Marex Group 57.0 50.0
Midland Research 55.0 50.0
Midwest Market Solutions 55.0 50.0
Northstar Commodity 54.5 50.0
Ocean State Research 55.0 50.0
Prime Ag 55.0 50.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 54.0 49.5
StoneX 54.0 51.2
US Commodities Inc. 54.5 50.0
Zaner Ag 56.0 50.5

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 07, 2024 19 Feb 28, 2024
ROUGH RICE March Mar 07, 2024 22 Mar 05, 2024
CORN March Mar 07, 2024 30 Feb 27, 2024
SOYBEAN March Mar 07, 2024 134 Feb 28, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were lower. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices are still weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 552, 542, and 540 May, with resistance at 572, 589, and 594 May. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 558, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 576, 597, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 641, 635, and 629 May, and resistance is at 660, 668, and 672 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday and the trends are trying to turn down on the daily parts. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. To down with no objectives. Support is at 1810, 1795, and 1773 May and resistance is at 1845, 1877, and 1907 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 6
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.73 15.00 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 24.23 16.27 0.00
Brokens 14.96 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 48.82/19.56 6.76
Medium Grain/Short Grain 61.56/9.04 7.04

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower yesterday, but trends are still trying to turn up on the daily chart. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far. China has bought about 10 cargoes of Corn from Ukraine in the last week or so.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 422, 409, and 406 May, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 446 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 358, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 376, 379, and 381 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little lower yesterday in correction trading despite reports of stronger basis levels in Brazil. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans in the last week. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1148, 1128, and 1122 May, and resistance is at 1166, 1180, and 1192 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 327.00, and 320.00 May, and resistance is at 334.00, 338.00, and 345.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4420, 4360, a6nd 4300 May, with resistance at 4620, 4680, and 4750 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 585.00, 576.00, and 570.00 May, with resistance at 598.00, 605.00, and 610.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3980 and 4090 May. Support is at 3910, 3870, and 3810 May, with resistance at 4030, 4060, and 4090 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 64 Mar 170 Mar
105 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 105 Mar 80 Mar

April
55 May 170 May 100 May 74 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 6

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 907.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 905.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 882.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 850.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 915.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 912.50 +17.50 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 890.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 857.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 912.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 782.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,170.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 274.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –

($1=MYR4.73)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-06-24 0529ET
Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysiaports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 882.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 880.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 852.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 822.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 890.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 887.50 +02.50
May/Jun 860.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 830.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 890.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,070.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 270.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7285)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 147,809 lots, or 6.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,645 4,649 4,645 4,646 4,631 4,647 16 92 2,784
May-24 4,554 4,620 4,554 4,612 4,552 4,592 40 123,815 161,508
Jul-24 4,518 4,577 4,515 4,573 4,519 4,557 38 14,486 30,422
Sep-24 4,510 4,556 4,509 4,548 4,506 4,537 31 8,589 21,518
Nov-24 4,481 4,519 4,479 4,517 4,477 4,500 23 371 3,936
Jan-25 4,476 4,508 4,471 4,505 4,472 4,492 20 456 4,152
Corn
Turnover: 454,261 lots, or 11.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,410 2,410 2,410 2,410 2,404 2,410 6 200 5,027
May-24 2,444 2,457 2,438 2,453 2,440 2,447 7 378,725 922,347
Jul-24 2,465 2,477 2,459 2,473 2,462 2,468 6 38,010 243,711
Sep-24 2,457 2,470 2,452 2,466 2,455 2,461 6 18,970 163,296
Nov-24 2,421 2,435 2,419 2,430 2,421 2,425 4 16,846 17,918
Jan-25 2,415 2,418 2,407 2,416 2,409 2,412 3 1,510 8,487
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,571,090 lots, or 49.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,100 3,188 3,099 3,185 3,150 3,169 19 374 1,758
May-24 3,126 3,153 3,122 3,127 3,129 3,134 5 1,146,506 1,593,254
Jul-24 3,139 3,160 3,130 3,133 3,138 3,142 4 35,990 176,684
Aug-24 3,211 3,227 3,199 3,201 3,209 3,210 1 4,779 31,004
Sep-24 3,198 3,214 3,182 3,193 3,200 3,197 -3 346,430 909,258
Nov-24 3,192 3,211 3,180 3,191 3,199 3,194 -5 6,308 40,002
Dec-24 3,228 3,242 3,214 3,231 3,231 3,232 1 1,036 10,824
Jan-25 3,208 3,223 3,196 3,207 3,211 3,210 -1 29,667 96,608
Palm Oil
Turnover: 698,716 lots, or 52.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 – – – 7,700 7,700 7,700 0 0 4,111
Apr-24 7,676 7,830 7,676 7,814 7,652 7,772 120 3,043 4,250
May-24 7,518 7,684 7,518 7,662 7,498 7,606 108 608,327 500,378
Jun-24 7,380 7,516 7,370 7,498 7,344 7,458 114 933 2,502
Jul-24 7,280 7,400 7,260 7,382 7,226 7,348 122 449 3,350
Aug-24 7,160 7,316 7,156 7,294 7,132 7,268 136 464 1,631
Sep-24 7,060 7,230 7,054 7,202 7,030 7,150 120 82,690 149,775
Oct-24 7,006 7,146 6,994 7,126 6,964 7,090 126 231 426
Nov-24 6,934 7,100 6,934 7,074 6,926 7,044 118 328 659
Dec-24 6,930 7,058 6,922 7,052 6,908 6,988 80 71 141
Jan-25 6,884 7,024 6,878 6,988 6,870 6,962 92 2,117 2,608
Feb-25 6,872 6,996 6,872 6,968 6,860 6,922 62 63 62
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 522,795 lots, or 39.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 – – – 7,502 7,502 7,502 0 0 625
May-24 7,420 7,536 7,408 7,508 7,408 7,474 66 426,988 570,055
Jul-24 7,356 7,484 7,352 7,460 7,354 7,424 70 2,511 19,909
Aug-24 7,364 7,494 7,362 7,468 7,354 7,428 74 787 7,600
Sep-24 7,340 7,468 7,334 7,442 7,330 7,406 76 90,573 225,685
Nov-24 7,310 7,434 7,308 7,416 7,308 7,372 64 580 7,169
Dec-24 7,362 7,468 7,358 7,468 7,366 7,414 48 37 1,678
Jan-25 7,318 7,440 7,318 7,420 7,320 7,374 54 1,319 5,669
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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