Bill Moore
William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
AgMaster Report 03/06/2024
MAY CORN
It appears that last Monday, May Corn finally put in a seasonal low after a $2.30 plummet (6.40 – 4.10) from last Summer’s highs! The key reversal on the charts is strong technical evidence & various fundamentals also point to a turn-around – a 35% increase in exports over 2023, a 3-4 million acre reduction in planting, an unseasonably warm, mild winter suggesting a hot & dry trend into summer & a still very high short fund open interest in the mkt – who will cover on further corn strength! The bearish fundamentals – slack exports & adequate stocks – have been widely chronicled & seem to be already discounted! At current price levels, there is no margin for error for the upcoming US Crop!
MAY BEANS
After a nearly $3.00 break since last Summer, May Beans are also probing a low! Brazilian Bean harvest is over 50% complete – taking some hedge pressure off the mkt & exports are picking up! Near record warmth Dec-Feb have many analysts concerned the warming trend could continue into the upcoming growing season! My family farm near Quincy, Illinois has been very dry with little snow this winter! The March WASDE Report occurs on this Friday 3-9-24 at 11:00am! Traditionally, the USDA makes big adjustments in this report – especially this year with their Brazilian Bean estimates 5-7 MMT higher than Brazil’s private estimators! Short-covering is expected into the USDA Report on Friday! Monday’s 10am inspections were over 1 MMT for the 2nd consecutive week!
MAY WHT
Bearish world fundamentals & decent moisture for the Southern Plains wht crop continue to keep Chicago May Wht hostage. Also, soft exports don’t help! Russia’s inundation onto the world mkt of it plentiful, cheap wht from its record harvest have kept a lid on US wht prices for a long time! May Wht needs help from its neighbors May Corn & Beans to sustain a meaningful rally! Short-covering into Friday’s USDA Report might stabilize wht prices into this W/E!
APRIL CAT
As you can see, Apl Cat’s remarkable $23 upside run (166-189) since Mid-Dec has stalled out – morphing into a consolidation pattern – albeit snugging up to the recent 189 highs – in a $3.00 range! Beef prices are still high but lower slaughter might indicate a slow-down in packer demand! As well, exports have weakened in recent weeks & China has indicated that it plans to continue to liquidate its hog herd! But overall, cattle #’s are very tight & that should underpin any upcoming price breaks! Plus, good beef demand into the early Easter (3-31-24) will also support!
APRIL HOGS
April Hog’s failure to challenge its 2/22/24 high discouraged the bulls & has led to a $4.00 correction (88-84) despite solid fundamentals with less supply & solid demand expected into the early Easter (3-31-24) Holiday! The mkt is also in a wait-and-see-mode with important export/supply #’s due out in Thursdays 7:30am Export Sales Report & the March WASDE report Friday 3-8 at 11am!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337