It is getting into the final stretch of tax season, with Tax Day just a week and a half away. As with most seasonal things, the tax return businesses have bombarded the advertising space, and I cannot wait to hear the last one for this season. With that in mind there is another type of tax season going on this week and I’m sure we’re all ready for this one to be over. I am talking about the tariff situation that has been constantly in my brain (even in my sleep) for the last 3 days. While we are just at the beginning of this go ‘round, let hope for a quick (and victorious) ending
Corn came out of the week with a little shine, as May was up 7 cents (1.54%) despite the tariffs. December was up 4 ¼ cents. Several major buyers of US corn saw tariffs with Japan at 24% and South Korea at 25%, with little response from either as of Friday afternoon Grain Stocks data showed 8.151 billion bushels of corn on hand as of March 1, down 201 mbu from the same time last year. Corn acreage was tallied at 95.326 million acres according to the NASS survey of producer intentions, a 4.732 million acre increase yr/yr if it comes to fruition. Ethanol production according to EIA was up 10,000 barrels per day to 1.063 million bpd in the week of 3/28. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw, down 738,000 barrels to 26.612 million barrels. Grain Crushing data showed a total of 421.2 mbu of corn used for ethanol production during February, down 10% from January’s revised (10.5 mbu higher) total and 5.44% below the same month (29 days) last year. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.173 MMT sold during the week ending on March 27. That brought the total export commitments to 54.235 MMT, which is 87% of USDA’s full year export forecast and now lagging the 5-year average of 88% for this week. February corn exports were reported at 6.03 MMT (237.5 mbu) according to Census data, down 2.11% from the January total but up 12.33% from last year. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming another 17,850 contracts from their net long position as of April 1, taking their net long to just 56,757 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex held up this week, with slight gains across the three markets. Chicago was just ¾ cent higher in the May contract this week 0.14%. May Kansas City posted a 5 3/4 cent gain (1.04%). MPLS futures saw a 3 1/2 cent pop (0.6%) in the May contract since last Friday. State Crop Progress reports showed winter wheat ratings in Kansas steady at 49% gd/ex and Texas 5% lower to at 26%. March 1 wheat stocks were tallied at 1.236 billion bushels, a hike of 147 mbu increase from last year. Prospective Plantings data showed 45.35 million acres of wheat intended this spring. Winter wheat acres were down 800,000 acres from the January Winter Wheat Seedings report at 33.315 million acres. Spring wheat was tallied at intentions of 10.02 million acres. Export Sales data had wheat booking at just 339,986 MT during the week of 3/27, up from last week. That took export sale commitments to 21.433 MMT, which is now 94% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 101% average selling pace. February wheat exports totaled 1.765 MMT (64.85 mbu) according to Census data, which was 34.37% above January but down 4.47% from last year. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 19,453 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday 112,040 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 45,675 contracts, a reduction of 225 contracts as of April 1.
Soybeans were in full-on collapse mode late in the week with May falling 46 cents. November posted a 44 3/4 loss since last Friday. May Soybean meal was applying the some, down another $10.40/ton (-3.54%), with bean oil back up 68 points (1.51%) on the week. Tariffs on China were set at 34% (54% including the previous 20%), with the country responding with 34% tariffs on all US goods. Prospective Plantings data indicated intentions of 83.495 million acres for soybeans this spring, a 3.555 million acre drop from last year of realized. March 1 soybean stocks were tallied at 1.91 billion bushels, coming in 65 mbu above the same period last year. Fat & Oils data on Tuesday showed 189.01 mbu of soybeans crushed during February, down 2.28% from last year’s 29-day Feb total and 11.07% below January. This week’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean business at 410,172 MT in the week of 3/27. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 46.17 MMT. That is 93% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Census trade data showed February exports of soybeans at 3.07 MMT (112.66 bbu), which was down 41.17% from January, 41.75% below a year ago. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net short of 29,847 contracts on Tuesday, a decrease of 13,112 contracts from the previous week.
Live cattle fell this week, with June down $6.65 this week, pressured by limit losses on Friday. Tariffs on China (34%), Japan (24%), and South Korea (25%) all led to pressure, along with sharp losses in the stock market on Thursday and Friday. The cash market continues was steady this week, with southern sales at $208 and Northern trade at $212-213. Feeders were back down $7.50 in the April contract (2.61%) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $5.19 week/week to $291.95. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $21.27/cwt. Choice was up $5.63 (1.7%) to $338.45 while Select was $1.50 lower (0.5%) to $318.68. Weekly beef production totaled 513.2 million lbs this week, back down 2.9% from last week and 1.2% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 1.7%, as slaughter is 5.4% lower. Census trade data showed 227.4 million lbs of beef exported in February, down 6.9% from last year and 1.2% below the January total. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 4,885 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 142,777 contracts. Managed money was pulling off their record net long by 763 contracts to 33,369 contracts by April 1 in feeder cattle futures and options.
Hogs were falling this week with limit losses on Friday, as June was $4.22 lower on the week. Stock market pressure, as well as tariffs on China (34%), Japan (24%), and South Korea (25%) all led to pressure. Only China has responded (with a 35% tariff on all US goods) The CME Lean Hog Index was down 41 cents this week at $88.72 as of April 2. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 79 cents this week (-0.8%) to $95.77/cwt. Pork production was up 1.8% from last week and 4.7% above the same week a year ago at 545.2 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.8%, as slaughter is 3.1% lower. Census trade data showed a converted carcass basis total of 565.2 million lbs of pork exported in February. That was a 2% decline from January and down 4.8% from last year. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 3,963 contracts to their net long position as of 4/1 to a net position of 55,326 contracts.
Cotton was hit arguably the hardest by the tariff situation, as May fell 354 points (5.29%) on the week. Tariff pressure was the main cause of the collapse, with China (34%), Pakistan (29%), and Vietnam (46%) all facing tariffs. There were two different approaches to responses, with China putting 34% tariffs on US goods and Vietnam looking to take the duties on US goods to 0. USDA’s Prospective Planting report tallied a total of 9.867 million cotton acres intended for this spring, a decline of 1.315 million acres from last year if realized. Export Sales data tallied cotton sales at 129,102 RB in the week of March 27. Shipments were back to the second largest this marketing year at 393,838 RB in that week. Commitments are now at 10.438 million RB, which is 101% of the USDA forecast, lagging behind the 5-year average sales pace of 102%. Cotton export (excluding linters) in February totaled 1.395 million bales ,which was down 9.1% from last year, but up 34.46% from January. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 158 points this week, to 55.22 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders cutting back 7,176 contracts from their net short position as of April 1 to 66,634 contracts.
Market Watch
Next Monday starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. We will get the first Crop Progress report of the season that afternoon. Monday is also first notice for April live cattle. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday morning. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with monthly WASDE report out later that morning. CPI data will be released on Thursday morning, with PPI data out on Friday. May cotton options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
Ugly. That’s the one word that comes to mind when looking at the November Soybean chart. After looking like a possible breakout on Monday and breaking the 40-day moving average at $10.28 ¼, the downtrend line off he Feb highs (10.36 ¼) held. Thursday saw a gap ($10.32) lower, which is still open. That could be seen as the top end of a triangle formation. The downside is that the support was broken today. After holding uptrend support ($10.12 ¼) on Thursday, the bulls threw in the towel on the Chinese response. The count (93 ¼ cents) from the point of the breakout would point to $9.09. Stochastics have crossed in high neutral, with MACD losing bullish momentum. Immediate support is the 78.6% Fib retracement at $9.85 ½, with the Dec low lateral support at $9.61.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Tax Season. Ag Marketing Report 04/07/2025
It is getting into the final stretch of tax season, with Tax Day just a week and a half away. As with most seasonal things, the tax return businesses have bombarded the advertising space, and I cannot wait to hear the last one for this season. With that in mind there is another type of tax season going on this week and I’m sure we’re all ready for this one to be over. I am talking about the tariff situation that has been constantly in my brain (even in my sleep) for the last 3 days. While we are just at the beginning of this go ‘round, let hope for a quick (and victorious) ending
Corn came out of the week with a little shine, as May was up 7 cents (1.54%) despite the tariffs. December was up 4 ¼ cents. Several major buyers of US corn saw tariffs with Japan at 24% and South Korea at 25%, with little response from either as of Friday afternoon Grain Stocks data showed 8.151 billion bushels of corn on hand as of March 1, down 201 mbu from the same time last year. Corn acreage was tallied at 95.326 million acres according to the NASS survey of producer intentions, a 4.732 million acre increase yr/yr if it comes to fruition. Ethanol production according to EIA was up 10,000 barrels per day to 1.063 million bpd in the week of 3/28. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw, down 738,000 barrels to 26.612 million barrels. Grain Crushing data showed a total of 421.2 mbu of corn used for ethanol production during February, down 10% from January’s revised (10.5 mbu higher) total and 5.44% below the same month (29 days) last year. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.173 MMT sold during the week ending on March 27. That brought the total export commitments to 54.235 MMT, which is 87% of USDA’s full year export forecast and now lagging the 5-year average of 88% for this week. February corn exports were reported at 6.03 MMT (237.5 mbu) according to Census data, down 2.11% from the January total but up 12.33% from last year. Friday’s CFTC data showed spec funds in corn futures and options trimming another 17,850 contracts from their net long position as of April 1, taking their net long to just 56,757 contracts by Tuesday.
The wheat complex held up this week, with slight gains across the three markets. Chicago was just ¾ cent higher in the May contract this week 0.14%. May Kansas City posted a 5 3/4 cent gain (1.04%). MPLS futures saw a 3 1/2 cent pop (0.6%) in the May contract since last Friday. State Crop Progress reports showed winter wheat ratings in Kansas steady at 49% gd/ex and Texas 5% lower to at 26%. March 1 wheat stocks were tallied at 1.236 billion bushels, a hike of 147 mbu increase from last year. Prospective Plantings data showed 45.35 million acres of wheat intended this spring. Winter wheat acres were down 800,000 acres from the January Winter Wheat Seedings report at 33.315 million acres. Spring wheat was tallied at intentions of 10.02 million acres. Export Sales data had wheat booking at just 339,986 MT during the week of 3/27, up from last week. That took export sale commitments to 21.433 MMT, which is now 94% of the new USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 101% average selling pace. February wheat exports totaled 1.765 MMT (64.85 mbu) according to Census data, which was 34.37% above January but down 4.47% from last year. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 19,453 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of Tuesday 112,040 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 45,675 contracts, a reduction of 225 contracts as of April 1.
Soybeans were in full-on collapse mode late in the week with May falling 46 cents. November posted a 44 3/4 loss since last Friday. May Soybean meal was applying the some, down another $10.40/ton (-3.54%), with bean oil back up 68 points (1.51%) on the week. Tariffs on China were set at 34% (54% including the previous 20%), with the country responding with 34% tariffs on all US goods. Prospective Plantings data indicated intentions of 83.495 million acres for soybeans this spring, a 3.555 million acre drop from last year of realized. March 1 soybean stocks were tallied at 1.91 billion bushels, coming in 65 mbu above the same period last year. Fat & Oils data on Tuesday showed 189.01 mbu of soybeans crushed during February, down 2.28% from last year’s 29-day Feb total and 11.07% below January. This week’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean business at 410,172 MT in the week of 3/27. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 46.17 MMT. That is 93% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, lagging the 5-year average pace by 1 percentage point. Census trade data showed February exports of soybeans at 3.07 MMT (112.66 bbu), which was down 41.17% from January, 41.75% below a year ago. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net short of 29,847 contracts on Tuesday, a decrease of 13,112 contracts from the previous week.
Live cattle fell this week, with June down $6.65 this week, pressured by limit losses on Friday. Tariffs on China (34%), Japan (24%), and South Korea (25%) all led to pressure, along with sharp losses in the stock market on Thursday and Friday. The cash market continues was steady this week, with southern sales at $208 and Northern trade at $212-213. Feeders were back down $7.50 in the April contract (2.61%) on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $5.19 week/week to $291.95. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $21.27/cwt. Choice was up $5.63 (1.7%) to $338.45 while Select was $1.50 lower (0.5%) to $318.68. Weekly beef production totaled 513.2 million lbs this week, back down 2.9% from last week and 1.2% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 1.7%, as slaughter is 5.4% lower. Census trade data showed 227.4 million lbs of beef exported in February, down 6.9% from last year and 1.2% below the January total. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 4,885 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 142,777 contracts. Managed money was pulling off their record net long by 763 contracts to 33,369 contracts by April 1 in feeder cattle futures and options.
Hogs were falling this week with limit losses on Friday, as June was $4.22 lower on the week. Stock market pressure, as well as tariffs on China (34%), Japan (24%), and South Korea (25%) all led to pressure. Only China has responded (with a 35% tariff on all US goods) The CME Lean Hog Index was down 41 cents this week at $88.72 as of April 2. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down just 79 cents this week (-0.8%) to $95.77/cwt. Pork production was up 1.8% from last week and 4.7% above the same week a year ago at 545.2 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 2.8%, as slaughter is 3.1% lower. Census trade data showed a converted carcass basis total of 565.2 million lbs of pork exported in February. That was a 2% decline from January and down 4.8% from last year. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 3,963 contracts to their net long position as of 4/1 to a net position of 55,326 contracts.
Cotton was hit arguably the hardest by the tariff situation, as May fell 354 points (5.29%) on the week. Tariff pressure was the main cause of the collapse, with China (34%), Pakistan (29%), and Vietnam (46%) all facing tariffs. There were two different approaches to responses, with China putting 34% tariffs on US goods and Vietnam looking to take the duties on US goods to 0. USDA’s Prospective Planting report tallied a total of 9.867 million cotton acres intended for this spring, a decline of 1.315 million acres from last year if realized. Export Sales data tallied cotton sales at 129,102 RB in the week of March 27. Shipments were back to the second largest this marketing year at 393,838 RB in that week. Commitments are now at 10.438 million RB, which is 101% of the USDA forecast, lagging behind the 5-year average sales pace of 102%. Cotton export (excluding linters) in February totaled 1.395 million bales ,which was down 9.1% from last year, but up 34.46% from January. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 158 points this week, to 55.22 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders cutting back 7,176 contracts from their net short position as of April 1 to 66,634 contracts.
Market Watch
Next Monday starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. We will get the first Crop Progress report of the season that afternoon. Monday is also first notice for April live cattle. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be published on Wednesday morning. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with monthly WASDE report out later that morning. CPI data will be released on Thursday morning, with PPI data out on Friday. May cotton options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
Ugly. That’s the one word that comes to mind when looking at the November Soybean chart. After looking like a possible breakout on Monday and breaking the 40-day moving average at $10.28 ¼, the downtrend line off he Feb highs (10.36 ¼) held. Thursday saw a gap ($10.32) lower, which is still open. That could be seen as the top end of a triangle formation. The downside is that the support was broken today. After holding uptrend support ($10.12 ¼) on Thursday, the bulls threw in the towel on the Chinese response. The count (93 ¼ cents) from the point of the breakout would point to $9.09. Stochastics have crossed in high neutral, with MACD losing bullish momentum. Immediate support is the 78.6% Fib retracement at $9.85 ½, with the Dec low lateral support at $9.61.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.