Grains Report 04/04/2025

DJ Food Prices Flat in March as Vegetable Oil Increases Offset Falls Elsewhere, UN Says
By Joe Hoppe
Food prices were broadly unchanged in March, as notably more expensive vegetable oil offset prices falls in cereal and sugar, data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations showed on Friday.
The FAO’s food price index–which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods–averaged 127.1 points in March, flat on February’s level. It remains up 6.9% on year, but just under 21% below its all-time high in March 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.
Vegetable-oil prices rose 3.7% from the previous month, and remain up 24% on year. March’s gains mainly reflect robust global import demand, raising quotations for palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils.
Meat prices rose 0.9% on month and remain up 2.7% on year, primarily reflecting higher European pig meat prices as Germany regained its status as free of foot-and-mouth disease while the euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Poultry meat prices were broadly flat despite concerns around bird flu outbreaks in some major producing countries.
Dairy prices were flat on month as falls in international cheese prices offset higher prices for butter and milk powders.
Sugar prices were down 1.6% on month on signs of weaker global demand. Improved weather in key sugarcane growing areas of southern Brazil also contributed to decline, though further falls were tempered by worsening Indian production prospects and persistent concerns about the overall outlook for Brazilian harvests.
Cereal prices fell 2.6% in March and sit 1.1% lower on year. Wheat prices fell globally on easing worries about crop conditions in major Northern Hemisphere exporters alongside concerns around trade tensions, though the fall was tempered by currency movements. Corn, sorghum and barley prices also slid, while rice declined 1.7% on weak import demand and plenty of exportable supplies.

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower yesterday in response to the tariffs that President Trump imposed yesterday afternoon. Speculators were already short and took the initial move lower as a chance to cover some of those positions. Dry outlooks for the Great Plains and Black Sea regions are still the main feature but rains in the forecast for the Great Plains from Nebraska to the north this weekend according to one model. The other model has more general rains for all parts of the Great Plains. The coverage of the new system does not look very impressive. It is very dry in both areas although Kansas got a minimal amount of rain last week. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. Overall demand has been weak so the lack of rain hurting production potential is about to be important. The trade is also worried about the potential for tariffs to be imposed in early April and the counter tariffs that would come back to US agriculture.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 524, 518, and 512 May, with resistance at 553, 563, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 546, 542, and 536 May, with resistance at 583, 598, and 604 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 576, 570, and 564 May, and resistance is at 600, 610, and 626 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday, but the losses were moderate and tied to news that the Trump tariffs are now here and operating. Mexico was exempted from new tariffs but still has to deal with tariffs already imposed on their goods. Prices remain cheap and could threaten the planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1294, 1282, and 1270 May and resistance is at 1341, 1365, and 1393 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed yesterday, with nearby months a little higher and deferred month a little lower as the market reacted to the announcement of the new Trump tariffs. There was renewed talk that tariffs could damage agricultural exports starting now as Trump imposed a blanket of tariffs on all countries and big tariffs on some countries such as China. Mexico and Canada were excused from this round of tariffs but already have tariffs imposed on them. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. It is dry in growing areas in western US, but most of the Midwest has had precipitation lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 442, 434, and 433 May, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 484 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 346, 342, and 333 May, and resistance is at 371, 377, and 385 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower yesterday as the market got news of the new tariffs imposed by President Trump. There was increasing talk of new tariffs and the damage they could do to US agriculture and especially Soybeans sales to China and Europe. South American production looks strong although slightly less than previous estimates, with Brazil expected to produce 170 million tons and Argentina producing 49 million tons or a little less. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The Brazil Soybeans harvest is now estimated to be more than 85% complete.
Overnight News
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down Support is at 998, 994, and 991 May, and resistance is at 1020, 1025, and 1036 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 284.00, 280.00, and 277.00 May, and resistance is at 292.00, 297.00, and 301.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4620, 4520, and 4390 May, with resistance at 4850, 4920, and 4980 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower again today in reaction to the Trump tariffs announcement mage Wednesday afternoon that proved bigger than expected. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand has not been good so far this month and was weaker than expected for February. Chart trends are up. Canola was mixed yesterday as traders reacted to the announcement of the new Trump tariffs on Canadian goods and others in the world. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 619.00, 607.00, and 600.00 May, with resistance at 645.00, 652.00, and 657.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4340, 4290, and 4230 June, with resistance at 4360, 4550, and 4600 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast Light rain or mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1130.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
May 1075.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1045.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1000.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 990.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 995.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1135.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
May 1080.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1050.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1005.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 995.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1000.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1105.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1060.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,780.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 491.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4358)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322