Softs Report 04/04/2025

DJ Food Prices Flat in March as Vegetable Oil Increases Offset Falls Elsewhere, UN Says
By Joe Hoppe
Food prices were broadly unchanged in March, as notably more expensive vegetable oil offset prices falls in cereal and sugar, data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations showed on Friday.
The FAO’s food price index–which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods–averaged 127.1 points in March, flat on February’s level. It remains up 6.9% on year, but just under 21% below its all-time high in March 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.
Vegetable-oil prices rose 3.7% from the previous month, and remain up 24% on year. March’s gains mainly reflect robust global import demand, raising quotations for palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils.
Meat prices rose 0.9% on month and remain up 2.7% on year, primarily reflecting higher European pig meat prices as Germany regained its status as free of foot-and-mouth disease while the euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Poultry meat prices were broadly flat despite concerns around bird flu outbreaks in some major producing countries.
Dairy prices were flat on month as falls in international cheese prices offset higher prices for butter and milk powders.
Sugar prices were down 1.6% on month on signs of weaker global demand. Improved weather in key sugarcane growing areas of southern Brazil also contributed to decline, though further falls were tempered by worsening Indian production prospects and persistent concerns about the overall outlook for Brazilian harvests.
Cereal prices fell 2.6% in March and sit 1.1% lower on year. Wheat prices fell globally on easing worries about crop conditions in major Northern Hemisphere exporters alongside concerns around trade tensions, though the fall was tempered by currency movements. Corn, sorghum and barley prices also slid, while rice declined 1.7% on weak import demand and plenty of exportable supplies.

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower to limit down yesterday in response to the Trump tariffs that threaten to greatly increase the costs of imports from China and Vietnam among other things. Both are major importers of US Cotton and sell goods made with that Cotton back to the US, so that trade could be lost. Ideas are that the market has rallied well from the lows made a couple of weeks ago.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 65.25 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 64.80, 63.50, and 62.50 May, with resistance of 66.20, 67.10 and 68.60 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down yesterday as the selling continued, this time in response to the Trump tariff proposals that should have supported FCOJ for domestic consumption. It didn’t because there are fears of a worlwide recession developing. The down trend in prices remains intact. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little loose. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 224.00, 218.00, and 212.00 May, with resistance at 278.00, 289.00, and 302.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday in response to the Trump tariff announcements. Coffee is being tariffed even through the uS does not produce any except for a small amount grown in Hawaii. Vietnam products are being tariffed to a significant degree and so are those from Brazil. Traders were taking a little price from the sell side of the market to cut the damage from the tariffs being enforced and in hopes to maintain demand strength. The lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam continue. The Vietnam harvest is over, but producers are holding back on some beans and are hoping for higher prices. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 341.52 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 354.00 May, and resistance is at 405.00, 408.00 and 414.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5170, 5010, and 4920 May, with resistance at 5420, 5640, and 5740 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday along with most other markets and in response to the Trump tariff news. The tariffs threaten to cause a worldwide recession that could hurt demand here in the US and in other countries in the world. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and forecasts for more showers in the next couple of weeks and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year. Indian production is expected to be a disappointment this year. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are still around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1820 May and resistance is at 1970, 2010, and 2030 May. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 540.00, 531.00, and 523.00 May, with resistance at 567.00, 573.00, and 583.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower yesterday despite the Trump tariff moves. Trends are still generally up in these markets, but demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Cocoa imports are now subject to a 10% tariff at minimum. Ideas are that a strong crop is expected and the ICCO recently raised its forecast of production for the coming year. Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, and Ivory coast has already said that offers into the world market will be less this year. Chart trends are mixed to down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too little rain that has reduced yields.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 8780, 8680, and 8590 May, with resistance at 9650, 9860, and 9990 May. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 6470, 6270, and 5960 May, with resistance at 6870, 7050, and 7500 May.

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