Softs Report 03/12/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mostly a little higher yesterday in response to the WASDE reports that showed no changes to the US data. World data showed slight increases in supply and demand and a slight decrease in ending stocks levels. The US Dollar was lower, and Crude Oil futures were higher. Selling has come from news that Trump has imposed some big tariffs on China earlier this week, and China announced tariffs on US ag production in retaliation. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year, but its Cotton demand is expected to stay soft mainly due to the tariffs. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 63.90, 62.80, and 60.00 May, with resistance of 67.10, 67.60 and 68.20 May.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Feb Mar
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 11.18 11.18
Harvested 7.29 6.44 8.27 8.27

Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 836 836

Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.60 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 14.47 12.07 14.41 14.41
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 19.07 16.72 17.57 17.57
Domestic Use 2.05 1.85 1.70 1.70
Exports, Total 12.45 11.75 11.00 11.00
Use, Total 14.50 13.60 12.70 12.70
Unaccounted 2/ -0.08 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
Ending Stocks 4.65 3.15 4.90 4.90
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.1 63.5 63.0
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WASDE – 658 – 18 March 2025

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2024/25 Proj.
World
Feb 73.71 120.46 42.47 115.95 42.51 -0.22 78.41
Mar 73.71 120.96 42.69 116.54 42.71 -0.22 78.33
World Less China
Feb 37.00 89.46 35.17 78.45 42.41 -0.22 40.99
Mar 37.00 89.21 35.89 79.04 42.61 -0.22 40.66
United States
Feb 3.15 14.41 0.01 1.70 11.00 -0.03 4.90
Mar 3.15 14.41 0.01 1.70 11.00 -0.03 4.90
Total Foreign
Feb 70.56 106.05 42.47 114.25 31.51 -0.19 73.51
Mar 70.56 106.55 42.68 114.84 31.71 -0.19 73.43
Major Exporters 4/
Feb 24.35 60.23 3.37 34.67 27.44 -0.19 26.04
Mar 24.35 60.18 3.47 34.82 27.49 -0.19 25.89
Major Importers 8/
Feb 43.87 42.44 36.28 75.11 2.37 0.00 45.11
Mar 43.87 42.99 36.37 75.53 2.52 0.00 45.18
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WASDE – 658 – 28 March 2025

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower and at new lows for the move again yesterday and despite narrowly mixed US production data from USDA. Reports that tariffs on Mexico could be eased and that could allow for more imports as Mexico has rescinded threats to put tariffs on its imports and exports. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains tight but is now a little looser. The reduced Florida production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now although Brazil could turn hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 256.00, 244.00, and 232.00 May, with resistance at 302.00, 322.00, and 328.00 May.

Released March 11, 2025, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Down 1 Percent from February Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is
2.42 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and
down 12 percent from the 2023-2024 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 11.6 million boxes (522,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the
previous forecast but down 35 percent from last season’s final utilization.
In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
4.60 million boxes (207,000 tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast
but down 32 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida
Valencia orange forecast, at 7.00 million boxes (315,000 tons), is unchanged
from the previous forecast but down 38 percent from last season’s final
utilization
The California Valencia orange forecast is 7.50 million boxes (300,000 tons),
down 11 percent from the previous forecast and down 19 percent from the
previous season. This results in a California all orange forecast of
46.5 million boxes (1.86 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous
forecast and down 2 percent from last season’s final utilization. The
forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast.
This report was approved on March 11, 2025
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Seth Meyer
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Lance Honig

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply higher yesterday on doubts about the production in Brazil and the lack of offers from Brazil along with reduced production and offers from Vietnam. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue. The flow of coffee from Brazil should slow this year as it is an off-year in the country’s biennial crop cycle.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 353.60 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 378.00, 366.00, and 361.00 May, and resistance is at 402.00, 418.00 and 424.00 May. Trends in London are up. Support is at 5280, 5230, and 5010 May, with resistance at 5630, 5740, and 5950 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on what was reported to be speculative long liquidation despite reports that the cash market is firming due to reduced production potential in major world producers. Ideas of decreasing Brazil and Asian production are around. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have reduced production potential due to weather. Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting smaller crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1780 May and resistance is at 1900, 1940, and 2000 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 510.00, 501.00, and 497.00 May, with resistance at 540.00, 550.00, and 553.00 March.

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2023 and 2024
——————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
State :———————————————————————–
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
——————————————————————————————–
: — 1,000 acres — —– tons —– — 1,000 tons —
For sugar :
Florida …………: 391.0 381.0 44.4 45.1 17,360 17,183
Louisiana ……….: 481.0 498.0 29.9 31.1 14,382 15,488
Texas 2/ ………..: 16.5 (NA) 22.5 (NA) 371 (NA)
United States ……: 888.5 879.0 36.1 37.2 32,113 32,671
For seed :
Florida …………: 16.6 15.7 49.8 53.3 827 837
Louisiana ……….: 24.5 25.3 33.7 34.5 826 873
Texas 2/ ………..: – (NA) (X) (NA) – (NA)
United States ……: 41.1 41.0 40.2 41.7 1,653 1,710
For sugar and seed :
Florida …………: 407.6 396.7 44.6 45.4 18,187 18,020
Louisiana ……….: 505.5 523.3 30.1 31.3 15,208 16,361
Texas 2/ ………..: 16.5 (NA) 22.5 (NA) 371 (NA)
United States ……: 929.6 920.0 36.3 37.4 33,766 34,381
——————————————————————————————–
– Represents zero.
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 2024.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Feb Mar
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 2129 2129
Production 2/ 9250 9311 9370 9408
Beet Sugar 5187 5172 5353 5389
Cane Sugar 4063 4139 4017 4019
Florida 1985 2077 1997 1971
Louisiana 2001 2022 2020 2049
Texas 76 40 0 0
Imports 3614 3811 2893 2779
TRQ 3/ 1862 1788 1533 1533
Other Program 4/ 141 272 200 200
Non-program 1611 1752 1160 1047
Mexico 1156 521 621 497
High-tier tariff/other 455 1231 539 550
Total Supply 14685 14965 14393 14317
Exports 82 249 100 100
Deliveries 12589 12506 12380 12345
Food 12473 12399 12275 12240
Other 5/ 116 106 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 81 0 0
Total Use 12843 12836 12480 12445
Ending Stocks 1843 2129 1913 1872
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 16.6 15.3 15.0
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Feb 835 4704 761 4436 446 1418
Mar 835 4704 761 4436 446 1418
2024/25 Proj.
Feb 1418 4859 125 4583 857 962
Mar 1418 4859 189 4553 957 956
================================================================================
WASDE – 658 – 17 March 2025

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in consolidation trading that went against industry buying. Ideas are that a strong new crop is expected and the ICCO forecast a . Ivory Coast port arrivals and Ghana arrivals are expected to fade but have held strong so far. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening. Chart trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. Overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 7680, 6670, and 6570 May, with resistance at 8780, 9180, and 9140 May. Trends in London are down. Support is at 6090, 5600, and 5290 May, with resistance at 7050, 7400, and 7620 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322