Grains Report 03/12/2025

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Mar 11
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD===================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
24/25 23/24 22/23 : 24/25 23/24 22/23 : 24/25 23/24 22/23

Soybeans 380.0 342.0 264.0 :181.95 177.51 171.75 : 420.76 394.97 378.16
Brazil na na na :105.50 104.17 95.50 : 169.00 153.00 162.00
Argentina na na na : 4.50 5.11 4.19 : 49.00 48.21 25.00
China na na na : 0.10 0.07 0.09 : 20.65 20.84 20.28
Soyoil 1,531 1,551 1,607 : 13.48 11.84 11.75 : 68.11 63.87 60.71
Corn 1,540 1,763 1,360 :186.36 193.56 180.35 : 1,214 1,228 1,163
China na na na : 0.02 0.00 0.01 : 294.92 288.84 277.20
Argentina na na na : 36.00 36.50 25.24 : 50.00 51.00 37.00
S.Africa na na na : 1.70 2.10 3.44 : 16.00 13.43 17.10
Cotton 4.90 3.15 4.65 : 42.71 44.61 36.65 : 120.96 112.98 116.30
All Wheat 819 696 570 :208.07 221.21 221.75 : 797.23 791.21 789.89
China na na na : 1.00 1.04 0.95 : 140.10 136.59 137.72
European
Union na na na : 27.00 37.97 35.08 : 121.30 135.10 134.49
Canada na na na : 26.00 25.44 25.62 : 34.96 32.95 34.81
Argentina na na na : 11.50 8.23 3.66 : 18.50 15.85 12.55
Australia na na na : 26.00 19.84 31.83 : 34.11 25.96 40.55
Russia na na na : 45.00 55.50 49.00 : 81.60 91.50 92.00
Ukraine na na na : 15.50 18.58 17.12 : 23.40 23.00 21.50
Sorghum 52.0 33.0 24.0 : na na na : na na na
Barley 63.0 78.0 66.0 : na na na : na na na
Oats 31.0 36.0 35.0 : na na na : na na na
Rice 47.0 39.8 30.3 : 58.39 56.87 55.09 : 532.66 522.31 516.70

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
Tuesday’s
2024-25 Estimate Average Range USDA February
Corn 1,540.0 1,523 1,415-1,630 1,540
Soybeans 380.0 381 365-402 380
Wheat 819.0 796 779-815 794
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA February
Corn 288.9 290.0 288.0-291.6 290.3
Soybeans 121.4 124.2 122.2-125.0 124.3
Wheat 260.1 257.5 256.0-259.3 257.6
***
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
2024-25
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA February
Corn 126.0 126.2 124.0-130.9 126.0
Soybeans 169.0 169.3 168.0-171.0 169.0
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
2024-25
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA February
Corn 50.0 49.0 47.0-50.0 50.0
Soybeans 49.0 48.6 47.5-49.0 49.0

DJ Canadian 2025/26 Acreage Summary – Mar 12
WINNIPEG–The following table is a recap of Statistics
Canada’s March acreage report. Pre-report expectations are
provided for comparison purposes. Figures are in million
acres.
CROP PROJECTIONS 2025/26 2024/25
Barley 6.700 – 6.900 6.280 6.405
Canola 20.500 – 22.000 21.646 22.011
Corn 3.700 – 3.800 3.769 3.651
Flax 0.480 – 0.520 0.448 0.504
Lentils 4.100 – 4.300 4.175 4.210
Oats 2.800 – 3.300 2.978 2.900
Peas 3.200 – 3.600 3.517 3.213
Soybeans 5.200 – 5.700 5.635 5.710
All Wheat* 26.900 – 27.300 27.475 26.773
Durum 5.500 – 6.200 6.367 6.364
*All wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat
remaining after winterkill

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 13, 2025 56 Mar 11, 2025
ROUGH RICE March Mar 13, 2025 36 Mar 11, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 13, 2025 29 Mar 11, 2025
SOYBEAN March Mar 13, 2025 60 Feb 27, 2025
WHEAT March Mar 13, 2025 12 Mar 07, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed a little lower in reaction to aa small increase in US ending stocks estimates caused by a drop in export demand and an increase in imports. World data showed lower ending stocks as production has been dropping and supplies are being consumed There are now fears that the US is entering a recession. Growing conditions are dry around the world and in the US Great Plains and Winter Wheat crops are emerging from dormancy. This could be a supportive factor but overall demand has been weak so he lack of rain hurting production potential is less of an issue for the trade. The fears of a US recession are the consequence of the Trump economic and political policies. The consumer confidence is waning and could become a source of real harm to the economy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 545, 530, and 524 May, with resistance at 573, 579, and 585 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 555, 540, and 534 May, with resistance at 600, 610, and 619 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 570 May, and resistance is at 609, 620, and 626 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed steady to higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports. The domestic data showed an increase of 1.0 million cwt in Long grain ending stocks but a decrease of 1.0 million cwt for Medium and Short Grain ending stocks. World data showed a slight decrease in ending stocks levels. The average farm price for the US was a little higher. Mexico has escaped tariffs for now and so it will not apply its own and this was a big relief to the Rice market. Prices remain cheap and could threaten planted area as it will cost more to produce Rice than it is getting in the market right now. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices are falling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are turning up. Support is at 1352, 1336 and 1296 May and resistance is at 1416, 1427, and 1455 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday as USDA left domestic data unchanged in the WASDE reports yesterday. Dry and cool conditions are in the Midwest forecast for today. The overall market fundamentals are still turning bearish, but short term rallies are still possible. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying was in anticipation of the new presidential regime. President Trump has announced that new tariffs are being imposed as of Tuesday on goods and services and some buyers may have made purchases already to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The tariffs have become an off again on again feature of the government and no one knows what to do at this time. Oats were lower on some long liquidation after import tariffs were imposed on imports from Canada on Tuesday and seem to be holding so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 459, 442, and 434 May, and resistance is at 482, 492, and 505 May. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 364, 359, and 351 May, and resistance is at 381, 391, and 400 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little lower yesterday in response to the USDA WASDE reports, as China announced retaliatory tariffs on US ag products and as South American production looks strong. Futures were hit hard in part on the Trump tariffs and in part response to the big crops hitting the market from Brazil and as the tariffs were imposed on our largest customers on the export front this week. The tariffs have caused retaliation from our buyers, especially China, and could hurt demand, especially from China and Canada. Consumer confidence is down and there are increasing worries that the US could be headed into a recession that could hurt domestic demand. The fundamentals remain mixed as cash markets have turned stronger in South America and hot and dry weather has returned to central and northern parts of the country. The Soybeans harvest there is estimated to be half done.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1010, 990 and 980 May, and resistance is at 1041, 1051, and 1055 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 291.00, 285.00, and 280.00 May, and resistance is at 308.00, 315.00, and 319.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4140, 4080, and 3990 May, with resistance at 4450, 4460, and 4530 May.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on less than expected export demand last week as reported by the private surveyors. There is talk of reduced supplies in the market due to extreme weather that caused fields to flood among other things. Demand from China has not been good but reports indicate that demand from India has been strong in February and provided support. Chart trends are turning up. Canola was sharply lower for the second day on news that China has imposed prohibitive tariffs on Canola and the products. The demand outlook is uncertain with the threat of US tariffs being imposed last week but was able to partially recover the losses on report of moderations by the US on the tariff schedule. The China news was devastating as China is a major importer of Canola and the products.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 582.00, 576.00, and 570.00 May, with resistance at 600.00, 615.00, and 617.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4430, 4370, and 4350 May, with resistance at 4650, 4720, and 4790 May.

DJ Malaysia’s February Palm Oil Exports 1.00M Tons; Down 16%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 16% on month at 1.00 million metric tons in February, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the February crop data and revised numbers for January, issued by MPOB:
February January Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,188,029 1,239,545 Dn 4.16%
Palm Oil Exports 1,002,135 1,196,849 Dn 16.27%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 58,144 57,554 Up 1.03%
Palm Oil Imports 66,784 88,474 Dn 24.52%
Closing Stocks 1,512,100 1,580,252 Dn 4.31%
Crude Palm Oil 826,248 789,435 Up 4.66%
Processed Palm Oil 685,852 790,817 Dn 13.27%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1140.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1080.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1007.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1000.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1145.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1085.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1012.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1005.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1100.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 1070.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,850.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 472.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4275)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 219,560 lots, or 8.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 4,086 4,086 4,086 0 0 27
May-25 4,068 4,073 4,016 4,016 4,090 4,046 -44 174,627 173,112
Jul-25 4,098 4,098 4,044 4,045 4,107 4,072 -35 26,358 50,107
Sep-25 4,110 4,110 4,054 4,054 4,116 4,078 -38 12,585 30,381
Nov-25 4,050 4,052 4,000 4,001 4,063 4,027 -36 5,149 27,624
Jan-26 4,050 4,056 4,006 4,007 4,065 4,033 -32 841 2,890
Corn
Turnover: 662,529 lots, or 15.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 2,250 2,250 2,250 0 0 552
May-25 2,323 2,328 2,314 2,315 2,320 2,320 0 527,693 1,332,993
Jul-25 2,354 2,356 2,342 2,344 2,351 2,349 -2 79,433 439,144
Sep-25 2,369 2,371 2,361 2,362 2,364 2,366 2 32,661 186,596
Nov-25 2,305 2,312 2,300 2,302 2,300 2,306 6 19,370 112,054
Jan-26 2,294 2,297 2,283 2,283 2,289 2,288 -1 3,372 11,869
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,120,731 lots, or 89.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 3,425 3,425 3,383 3,390 3,450 3,397 -53 251 7,326
May-25 2,862 2,875 2,822 2,838 2,877 2,844 -33 2,150,178 2,055,817
Jul-25 2,828 2,839 2,801 2,808 2,838 2,815 -23 112,546 372,650
Aug-25 2,950 2,975 2,940 2,941 2,963 2,950 -13 18,349 166,956
Sep-25 2,966 2,986 2,950 2,952 2,972 2,964 -8 730,272 1,624,246
Nov-25 2,990 3,010 2,977 2,979 2,993 2,988 -5 46,118 254,825
Dec-25 3,018 3,034 3,000 3,002 3,021 3,010 -11 14,542 85,039
Jan-26 3,001 3,017 2,981 2,983 3,005 2,997 -8 48,475 169,368
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,081,635 lots, or 9.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 9,366 9,366 9,366 0 0 731
Apr-25 9,128 9,264 9,108 9,220 9,128 9,190 62 10,058 4,361
May-25 8,958 9,090 8,926 9,040 8,958 9,000 42 989,364 440,460
Jun-25 8,746 8,852 8,706 8,812 8,702 8,780 78 1,528 4,035
Jul-25 8,556 8,658 8,540 8,632 8,564 8,596 32 392 1,060
Aug-25 8,416 8,504 8,400 8,504 8,468 8,454 -14 29 178
Sep-25 8,362 8,440 8,312 8,416 8,360 8,378 18 79,314 137,157
Oct-25 8,320 8,396 8,320 8,396 8,322 8,364 42 22 673
Nov-25 8,266 8,358 8,266 8,354 8,284 8,334 50 21 1,335
Dec-25 8,262 8,320 8,246 8,320 8,262 8,280 18 50 947
Jan-26 8,248 8,306 8,212 8,284 8,248 8,258 10 846 5,809
Feb-26 8,246 8,290 8,244 8,290 8,270 8,258 -12 11 49
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 472,803 lots, or 37.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-25 – – – 8,276 8,276 8,276 0 0 99
May-25 7,854 7,892 7,820 7,856 7,914 7,856 -58 363,645 538,517
Jul-25 7,722 7,762 7,696 7,714 7,780 7,722 -58 3,912 10,857
Aug-25 7,766 7,804 7,740 7,758 7,832 7,768 -64 896 3,070
Sep-25 7,762 7,796 7,732 7,748 7,812 7,758 -54 101,877 340,675
Nov-25 7,796 7,820 7,760 7,778 7,850 7,784 -66 56 2,234
Dec-25 7,808 7,810 7,764 7,766 7,822 7,784 -38 22 110
Jan-26 7,764 7,782 7,714 7,726 7,794 7,742 -52 2,395 8,315
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322