Growing up, there were many time when blood was involved that I would hear my dad say something to the effect of its bleeding like a stuck hog. Of course, the reference was to the slaughter of a hog and the process of draining the blood and ensuring a quick death. Well, this week’s price action in the ag markets had a similar activity metaphorically speaking. Specifically in the grains, hogs, and cotton the markets were bleeding like a stuck hog, with sharp losses across the markets. Lets just hope this death is over quickly, so we can find the bottom!
Corn futures were in near free fall mode this week down 37 ¾ cents (-7.68%) on the week in the March contract, with December losing 20 cents (4.21%). Month end pressure with longs taking money off the table added to the weakness. USDA’s ag outlook forum showed corn acreage estimated at 94 million acres according to the Office of the Chief Economist armchair estimates. We’ll get a better (survey driven) look at things via the March Intentions report at the end of March. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production 3,000 barrels per day to 1.081 million bpd in the week of 2/21. Stocks of ethanol saw a massive build, up 1.353 million barrels to 27.571 million barrels. Export Sales data indicated 2024/25 corn bookings at just 794,694 MT for the week ending on February 20. That took export commitments to 48.66 MMT, which is 78% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 76%. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options cutting back their net long position by another 16,079 contracts as of February 25, taking their net long to 337,454 contracts by Tuesday.
Wheat extended the losses this week sharpening the weakness across three exchanges this week. Chicago March was up 53 cents (-8.98%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a 51 cent loss this week (8.37%). MPLS March was 49 1/2 cents (-7.84%) lower than last Friday. USDA Outlook Forum indicated the 2025 US wheat acreage total at 47 million acres according to the Office of the Chief Economist’s armchair estimate. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export bookings at 269,008 MT during the week of February 20. That took export sale commitments to 20.14 MMT, which is now 87% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 95% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 6,037 contracts to their nets short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of February 25 to 67,614 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 21,335 contracts, a reduction of another 755 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans were back down this week, with losses of 28 cents (-2.69%). Meal futures slipped by $3.10 (1.05%), with bean oil back down 328 points (-7.01%) since last Friday. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum showed soybean acreage for this spring pegged at 84 million acres, according to the Office of the Chief Economist. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at just 3410,878 MT in the week of 2/20. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 44.15 MMT. That is 89% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, matching the average pace. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders in soybean futures and options cutting back their net long by 8,317 contracts as of February 25 to just 8,209 contracts.
Live cattle were under pressure again mainly late in the week, as April was down $1.30 (-0.67%). Cash trade was down $2 this week, reported at $197 the South, with Northern trade slipping to $198. Feeders were back up $7.025 (2.62%) on the week in the March contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $2.87 week/week to $281.06. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw mixed action this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened back out to $9.78/cwt. Choice was back up $1.06 (0.3%) to $311.83, while Select was 51 cents lower (-0.2%) to $302.05. Cold Storage data was updated this week, with the January 2025 beef stocks totaling 463.28 million lbs. That was down 0.28% from last year but 2.19% above December. Weekly beef production was down 0.4% from last week and 0.8% below the same week last year at 494.4 million lbs. Year to date beef production is down 3.2% on 7.5% lower slaughter. USDA’s Export Sales report from this morning showed a drop from last year at 18,225 MT in the week of 2/20. Export shipments were tallied at 14,745 MT, which was up slightly from last week. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options backing off of their net long position by 7,158 contracts as of Tuesday to 121,311 contracts.
Hogs were falling again this week with April down $4 (-4.56%) and a 2-week loss of 9.64%. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.33 this week at $88.06 as of February 26. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.35 this week (1.4%). The belly was again the leader to the upside, up $11.79, with the loin and picnic the other primals reported higher. Pork stocks at the end of January were tallied at 410.227 million lbs, which was a 28-year low. That was down 11.46% from last year but up 3.46% from the end of December. Pork production totaled 551.7 million lbs this week, up 0.6% from last week and 0.3% above the same week last year. Year to date pork production is down 4.7%, as slaughter is 5.1% lower. Pork export bookings during the week ending on February 20 were tallied at 32,155 MT, which was a 3-week high. Shipments totaled 34,133 MT, the second largest this MY. Commitment of Traders data showed specs slashing 23,656 contracts to their net long position as of February 25 to a net position of 90,492 contracts.
Cotton futures were heading lower this week, finding new lows with May down 209 points (-3.1%). USDA’s armchair estimates for the 2025 cotton crop were released in their annual Outlook Forum this week, with acreage pegged at 10 million acres. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales down to just 166,875 RB of cotton sold in the week of February 20. Shipments were down from last week at 267,538 RB. Commitments are now at 9.61 million RB, which is 93% of the new USDA forecast, in line with the normal sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 78 points this week, to 53.89 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders adding another 11,067 contracts to their new record net short position as of 2/25 at 68,453 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. With the first day of the month comes the monthly use reports, via the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and cotton systems reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning, with monthly Census data also out on Thursday. On Friday, March cotton futures expire, with the last trade day for March live cattle serial options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn rode the escalator up from the December low. However, since the high last week at $4.79 ¾, they have been taking the elevator down. Now we just need to figure out what floor they’re getting off. The 1/3 speedline support failed on Thursday, with the 2/3 clear down at $4.47 ¼. That is near the 61.8% Fib retracement support at $4.47 ¾, though there is a 50% at 4.53 ¾ after the 38.2% failed. The 1/3, 61.8%, and 100-day moving average ($4.48 ¾) all in the same area provide solid support. The bears have the (MACD) momentum, with stochastics not yet oversold.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Like A Stuck Hog. Ag Marketing Report 03/03/2025
Growing up, there were many time when blood was involved that I would hear my dad say something to the effect of its bleeding like a stuck hog. Of course, the reference was to the slaughter of a hog and the process of draining the blood and ensuring a quick death. Well, this week’s price action in the ag markets had a similar activity metaphorically speaking. Specifically in the grains, hogs, and cotton the markets were bleeding like a stuck hog, with sharp losses across the markets. Lets just hope this death is over quickly, so we can find the bottom!
Corn futures were in near free fall mode this week down 37 ¾ cents (-7.68%) on the week in the March contract, with December losing 20 cents (4.21%). Month end pressure with longs taking money off the table added to the weakness. USDA’s ag outlook forum showed corn acreage estimated at 94 million acres according to the Office of the Chief Economist armchair estimates. We’ll get a better (survey driven) look at things via the March Intentions report at the end of March. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production 3,000 barrels per day to 1.081 million bpd in the week of 2/21. Stocks of ethanol saw a massive build, up 1.353 million barrels to 27.571 million barrels. Export Sales data indicated 2024/25 corn bookings at just 794,694 MT for the week ending on February 20. That took export commitments to 48.66 MMT, which is 78% of the USDA export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 76%. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options cutting back their net long position by another 16,079 contracts as of February 25, taking their net long to 337,454 contracts by Tuesday.
Wheat extended the losses this week sharpening the weakness across three exchanges this week. Chicago March was up 53 cents (-8.98%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a 51 cent loss this week (8.37%). MPLS March was 49 1/2 cents (-7.84%) lower than last Friday. USDA Outlook Forum indicated the 2025 US wheat acreage total at 47 million acres according to the Office of the Chief Economist’s armchair estimate. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export bookings at 269,008 MT during the week of February 20. That took export sale commitments to 20.14 MMT, which is now 87% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 95% average selling pace. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back 6,037 contracts to their nets short position in CBT wheat futures and options as of February 25 to 67,614 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a net short of 21,335 contracts, a reduction of another 755 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans were back down this week, with losses of 28 cents (-2.69%). Meal futures slipped by $3.10 (1.05%), with bean oil back down 328 points (-7.01%) since last Friday. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum showed soybean acreage for this spring pegged at 84 million acres, according to the Office of the Chief Economist. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at just 3410,878 MT in the week of 2/20. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 44.15 MMT. That is 89% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, matching the average pace. Commitment of Traders data indicated spec traders in soybean futures and options cutting back their net long by 8,317 contracts as of February 25 to just 8,209 contracts.
Live cattle were under pressure again mainly late in the week, as April was down $1.30 (-0.67%). Cash trade was down $2 this week, reported at $197 the South, with Northern trade slipping to $198. Feeders were back up $7.025 (2.62%) on the week in the March contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $2.87 week/week to $281.06. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw mixed action this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened back out to $9.78/cwt. Choice was back up $1.06 (0.3%) to $311.83, while Select was 51 cents lower (-0.2%) to $302.05. Cold Storage data was updated this week, with the January 2025 beef stocks totaling 463.28 million lbs. That was down 0.28% from last year but 2.19% above December. Weekly beef production was down 0.4% from last week and 0.8% below the same week last year at 494.4 million lbs. Year to date beef production is down 3.2% on 7.5% lower slaughter. USDA’s Export Sales report from this morning showed a drop from last year at 18,225 MT in the week of 2/20. Export shipments were tallied at 14,745 MT, which was up slightly from last week. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options backing off of their net long position by 7,158 contracts as of Tuesday to 121,311 contracts.
Hogs were falling again this week with April down $4 (-4.56%) and a 2-week loss of 9.64%. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.33 this week at $88.06 as of February 26. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.35 this week (1.4%). The belly was again the leader to the upside, up $11.79, with the loin and picnic the other primals reported higher. Pork stocks at the end of January were tallied at 410.227 million lbs, which was a 28-year low. That was down 11.46% from last year but up 3.46% from the end of December. Pork production totaled 551.7 million lbs this week, up 0.6% from last week and 0.3% above the same week last year. Year to date pork production is down 4.7%, as slaughter is 5.1% lower. Pork export bookings during the week ending on February 20 were tallied at 32,155 MT, which was a 3-week high. Shipments totaled 34,133 MT, the second largest this MY. Commitment of Traders data showed specs slashing 23,656 contracts to their net long position as of February 25 to a net position of 90,492 contracts.
Cotton futures were heading lower this week, finding new lows with May down 209 points (-3.1%). USDA’s armchair estimates for the 2025 cotton crop were released in their annual Outlook Forum this week, with acreage pegged at 10 million acres. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales down to just 166,875 RB of cotton sold in the week of February 20. Shipments were down from last week at 267,538 RB. Commitments are now at 9.61 million RB, which is 93% of the new USDA forecast, in line with the normal sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 78 points this week, to 53.89 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money spec traders adding another 11,067 contracts to their new record net short position as of 2/25 at 68,453 contacts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. With the first day of the month comes the monthly use reports, via the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and cotton systems reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday morning. The USDA Export Sales report will be out on Thursday morning, with monthly Census data also out on Thursday. On Friday, March cotton futures expire, with the last trade day for March live cattle serial options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn rode the escalator up from the December low. However, since the high last week at $4.79 ¾, they have been taking the elevator down. Now we just need to figure out what floor they’re getting off. The 1/3 speedline support failed on Thursday, with the 2/3 clear down at $4.47 ¼. That is near the 61.8% Fib retracement support at $4.47 ¾, though there is a 50% at 4.53 ¾ after the 38.2% failed. The 1/3, 61.8%, and 100-day moving average ($4.48 ¾) all in the same area provide solid support. The bears have the (MACD) momentum, with stochastics not yet oversold.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.