Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 10:35 A.M., Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Brain Crushings at 2:00 P.M.
Geopolitics are front and center next week as the US is set to impose tariffs on Mexico & Canada on March 4th, and with Trump & Zelinsky on Friday failing to produce a sign minerals deal – which lowers the odds of a ceasefire in the Ukraine in the short run. The US dollar found support this week amid global instability. Whether the USD in January scored a lasting high will be determined by currency markets reaction to changing trade policy. Clients should be prepared for headline driven volatility in early March. It’s just difficult to say much about future grain trade flows without clarity from the UA administration.
South American Weather Pattern Discussion
Better Rain Chances Offered N Brazil After March 10th; Need Drier Pattern Forecast in Argentina:
The South American forecast is consistent with previous runs and is viewed as non-threatening – as long as 11-15 day guidance verifies. A shift to drier weather in Argentina and expanded rainfall in northern Brazil occurs after the next 9-10 days. The 30-day percent of normal rainfall ending March 14th, and assumes the EU ensemble model’s forecast is correct. Noting the dryness bussing outside of Mato Grosso. Regular rains will be needed from mis-March to late April in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana. And Goias to keep trend safrinha corn yield intact. Additionally heavy rainfall of 3-7” impacts Argentina. Flood Concerns remain in Buenos Aires. Aris/warm conditions persist all but Mato Grosso in March. Mid-March pattern change is needed.
Central US Weather Update
March US Climate Forecast Keeps Precipitation Pattern Stagnant; Warmth Favors Plains:
The CFSv2’s March climate guidance is consistent with recent days and extends the short-term outlook into the final days of the month. Heavy rain/snow is forecast in IA and areas east of the Mississippi River over the next two weeks. Little no moisture is projected across the Plains. Temps will be variable, but broadly above-normal readings will most common across the Plains and Western Corn Belt. Confidence in details beyond 10-days is low, but Plains drought expansion is anticipated. Cumulative moisture of 1-2” impacts central & eastern Midwest and Delta region March 5-6. Totals of 2+’ favor eastern KS,MO, eastern IA and IL. Additional lite showers return to the primary Midwest March 11-15. High temps in the 60’s & 70’s will be common in TX,OK, and KS this weekend and after March 10th .
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Continues Lower on Fund Liquidation; Brazilian Market Stays Firm:
CBOT corn futures ended sharply lower for a second day. Fund’s still-sizable long position is being unwound ahead of probable tariffs placed on Mexico and tariffs on China will be raised 10%.The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is not bullish. New weather issues are needed to sustain recoveries between now and NASS’s planting intentions March 31st. However, Ag Resources (ARC) notes Brazilian cash market remains perched above $6.20/Bu. Ukrainian fob premiums this week are working to ration remaining old crop supply, and have rallied $.20/Bu this week. The futures loosening of US/world supply/demand is noted, but in the medium term global marketplace must contend with weak surpluses in exportable positions. Support is projected at $4.55- $4.60 basis May. At this pont the market becomes technically oversold.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Starting the Week Trading Headlines. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/03/2025
We kickoff the day with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and ISM Manufacturing Prices at 9:00 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 10:35 A.M., Cotton System, Fats & Oils, and Brain Crushings at 2:00 P.M.
Geopolitics are front and center next week as the US is set to impose tariffs on Mexico & Canada on March 4th, and with Trump & Zelinsky on Friday failing to produce a sign minerals deal – which lowers the odds of a ceasefire in the Ukraine in the short run. The US dollar found support this week amid global instability. Whether the USD in January scored a lasting high will be determined by currency markets reaction to changing trade policy. Clients should be prepared for headline driven volatility in early March. It’s just difficult to say much about future grain trade flows without clarity from the UA administration.
South American Weather Pattern Discussion
Better Rain Chances Offered N Brazil After March 10th; Need Drier Pattern Forecast in Argentina:
The South American forecast is consistent with previous runs and is viewed as non-threatening – as long as 11-15 day guidance verifies. A shift to drier weather in Argentina and expanded rainfall in northern Brazil occurs after the next 9-10 days. The 30-day percent of normal rainfall ending March 14th, and assumes the EU ensemble model’s forecast is correct. Noting the dryness bussing outside of Mato Grosso. Regular rains will be needed from mis-March to late April in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana. And Goias to keep trend safrinha corn yield intact. Additionally heavy rainfall of 3-7” impacts Argentina. Flood Concerns remain in Buenos Aires. Aris/warm conditions persist all but Mato Grosso in March. Mid-March pattern change is needed.
Central US Weather Update
March US Climate Forecast Keeps Precipitation Pattern Stagnant; Warmth Favors Plains:
The CFSv2’s March climate guidance is consistent with recent days and extends the short-term outlook into the final days of the month. Heavy rain/snow is forecast in IA and areas east of the Mississippi River over the next two weeks. Little no moisture is projected across the Plains. Temps will be variable, but broadly above-normal readings will most common across the Plains and Western Corn Belt. Confidence in details beyond 10-days is low, but Plains drought expansion is anticipated. Cumulative moisture of 1-2” impacts central & eastern Midwest and Delta region March 5-6. Totals of 2+’ favor eastern KS,MO, eastern IA and IL. Additional lite showers return to the primary Midwest March 11-15. High temps in the 60’s & 70’s will be common in TX,OK, and KS this weekend and after March 10th .
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Continues Lower on Fund Liquidation; Brazilian Market Stays Firm:
CBOT corn futures ended sharply lower for a second day. Fund’s still-sizable long position is being unwound ahead of probable tariffs placed on Mexico and tariffs on China will be raised 10%.The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is not bullish. New weather issues are needed to sustain recoveries between now and NASS’s planting intentions March 31st. However, Ag Resources (ARC) notes Brazilian cash market remains perched above $6.20/Bu. Ukrainian fob premiums this week are working to ration remaining old crop supply, and have rallied $.20/Bu this week. The futures loosening of US/world supply/demand is noted, but in the medium term global marketplace must contend with weak surpluses in exportable positions. Support is projected at $4.55- $4.60 basis May. At this pont the market becomes technically oversold.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn