
Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 01/13/2025
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week after USDA increased production and ending stocks estimates on Friday. The weekly export sales report did not show strong sales. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News: The USDA daily price is now 64.09 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 67.50, 66.80, and 66.20 March, with resistance of 69.40, 69.90 and 70.40 March.
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Jan 10
Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2023-24
=========================================================================
Type Yield Production 1/
And ============================================================-
State Annual Annual
2023 Dec 1 2024 2023 Dec 1 2024
=========================================================================
====== Pounds ====== ==== 1,000 Bales 2/ ====
Upland
U.S. 895.0 782.0 829.0 11,750.0 13,757.0 13,946.0
Amer-Pima
U.S. 1,101.0 1,245.0 1,119.0 316.0 498.0 468.0
All
U.S. 899.0 792.0 836.0 12,066.0 14,255.0 14,414.0
=========================================================================
Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State,
and United States, 2022-24
=========================================================================
Type Area Planted Area Harvested
and ============================================================-
State Annual Annual
2022 2023 2024 2023 Dec 1 2024
=========================================================================
============== 1,000 Acres ==============
Upland
U.S. 13,567.0 10,083.0 10,975.0 6,301.8 8,442.6 8,070.5
Amer-Pima
U.S. 182.0 147.0 207.0 137.8 192.0 200.7
All
U.S. 13,749.0 10,230.0 11,182.0 6,439.6 8,634.6 8,271.2
=========================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Jan 10
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2023/24 2024/25
prev Jan 10 prev Jan 10
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.23 10.23 11.17 11.18
Harvested 6.44 6.44 8.63 8.27
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 899 899 792 836
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.65 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 12.07 12.07 14.26 14.41
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 16.72 16.72 17.41 17.57
Domestic use 1.85 1.85 1.80 1.80
Exports, total 11.75 11.75 11.30 11.00
Use, total 13.60 13.60 13.10 12.80
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.03
Ending stocks 3.15 3.15 4.40 4.80
Avg. farm price 3/ 76.10 76.10 66.00 65.00
=========================================================================
Note: 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season’s supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and trends are turning down on the daily charts as more cold weather invaded the eastern half of the country but should not harm Florida growing areas. The short term supply scenario remains very tight as USDA maintained its Florida production estimate at 12 million boxes and estimated US production at 60.3 million boxes from 60.6 million in its previous estimate. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 9 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 471.00, 468.00, and 462.00 March, with resistance at 499.00, 507.00, and 512.00 March.
DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits – Jan 10
Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and
United States, 2023-2024 and Forecasted Jan 1, 2025
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends
with the completion of harvest the following year.)
=========================================================================
Utilized Production Utilized production
Boxes 1/ Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ======================================================
2023-24 2024-25 2023-24 2024-25
=========================================================================
=== 1,000 Boxes === === 1,000 Tons ===
=========================================================================
Oranges
California, all 47,500 47,400 1,900 1,896
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 38,200 39,000 1,528 1,560
Valencia 9,300 8,400 372 336
Florida, all 17,960 12,000 808 540
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 6,760 5,000 304 225
Valencia 11,200 7,000 504 315
Texas, all 1,180 900 50 39
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 690 600 29 26
Valencia 490 300 21 13
United States, all 66,640 60,300 2,758 2,475
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 45,650 44,600 1,861 1,811
Valencia 20,990 15,700 897 664
=========================================================================
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London was near unchanged last week as the market looked for more farm selling. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. Conditions are now good in Brazil as it has been raining. There are reports from Brazil that producers are selling again as the Real has weakened and producers are now making record money in Real terms.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 295.48 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 347.00 and 353.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4910, 4770, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 January.
SUGER
General Comments: New York and London were a little lower last week. The Brazilian Real has been very weak lately to encourage sales and help keep pressure on prices. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1820 March and resistance is at 2000, 2070, and 2140 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 495.00, 490.00, and 484.00 March, with resistance at 521.00, 526.00, and 538.00 March.
COCOA
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week, but both markets held to the recent weekly trading range. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are tuning down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 10250, 9830, and 9450 March, with resistance at 11880, 12000, and 12910 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 8500, 8160, and 7810 March, with resistance at 9380, 10200, and 10500 March.