
Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 01/13/2025
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan 14, 2025 6 Jan 08, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 14, 2025 35 Jan 10, 2025
SOYBEAN January Jan 14, 2025 4 Dec 31, 2024
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the
government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal Survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production
(Production in million bushels)
(Yield in bushels per acre)
(Harvested area in million acres)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range December
Corn Production 14,867.0 15,092 14,965-15,240 15,143
Corn Yield 179.3 182.6 181.3-183.7 183.1
Harvested Acres 82.9 82.6 82.2-82.7 82.7
Soybean Production 4,366.0 4,451 4,419-4,539 4,461
Soybean Yield 50.7 51.6 51.2-52.6 51.7
Harvested Acres 86.1 86.3 85.8-86.4 86.3
****
U.S. 2024-25 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range December
Corn 1,540.0 1,678 1,540-1,815 1,738
Soybeans 380.0 454 390-486 470
Wheat 798.0 807 792-830 795
****
World 2024-25 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Dec.
Corn 293.3 295.0 290.5-297.1 296.4
Soybeans 128.4 132.0 130.0-133.0 131.9
Wheat 258.8 258.2 256.5-259.0 257.9
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2025 (million bushels)
Friday’s USDA USDA
Estimate Average Range Sept. 2024 Dec. 2023
Corn 12,074 12,164 11,912-12,320 1,763 12,171
Soybeans 3,100 3,236 3,040- 3,587 342 3,001
Wheat 1,570 1,578 1,460- 1,638 1,992 1,421
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jan 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD===================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
24/25 23/24 22/23 : 24/25 23/24 22/23 : 24/25 23/24 22/23
Soybeans 380.0 342.0 264.0 :181.97 177.62 171.75 : 424.26 394.97 378.16
Brazil na na na :105.50 104.17 95.50 : 169.00 153.00 162.00
Argentina na na na : 4.50 5.11 4.19 : 52.00 48.21 25.00
China na na na : 0.10 0.07 0.09 : 20.65 20.84 20.28
Soyoil 1,531 1,501 1,607 : 12.88 11.87 11.75 : 66.25 62.80 59.67
Corn 1,540 1,763 1,360 :191.41 192.04 180.34 : 1,214 1,230 1,163
China na na na : 0.02 0.00 0.01 : 294.92 288.84 277.20
Argentina na na na : 36.00 34.00 25.24 : 51.00 50.00 37.00
S.Africa na na na : 2.80 2.00 3.44 : 17.00 13.40 17.10
Cotton 4.80 3.15 4.65 : 42.48 44.61 36.65 : 119.45 112.98 116.30
All Wheat 798 696 570 :212.00 221.22 221.75 : 793.24 791.02 789.89
China na na na : 1.00 1.04 0.95 : 140.10 136.59 137.72
European
Union na na na : 29.00 37.97 35.08 : 121.30 135.10 134.49
Canada na na na : 26.00 25.44 25.62 : 34.96 32.95 34.81
Argentina na na na : 11.50 8.23 3.66 : 17.50 15.85 12.55
Australia na na na : 25.00 19.84 31.83 : 32.00 25.96 40.55
Russia na na na : 46.00 55.50 49.00 : 81.50 91.50 92.00
Ukraine na na na : 16.00 18.58 17.12 : 22.90 23.00 21.50
Sorghum 32.0 33.0 24.0 : na na na : na na na
Barley 66.0 78.0 66.0 : na na na : na na na
Oats 31.0 36.0 35.0 : na na na : na na na
Rice 43.5 39.8 30.3 : 57.91 56.96 55.15 : 532.87 522.62 516.73
WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were about unchanged last week and the trends are starting to turn down. The USDA reports were not bullish to Wheat as plantings were higher than trade expectations as were world ending stocks estimates. US ending stocks estimates were 798 million bushels, below the average trade guess of 807 million but above what USDA published last month at 795 million. These estimates were considered mildly negative for prices. World Wheat demand has been strong, but there has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 526, 522, and 516 March, with resistance at 545, 554, and 561 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 538, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 560, 568, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 March, and resistance is at 601, 606, and 611 March.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week in continued speculative short covering and some new commercial buying. The trends are up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is now less to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar. The weekly export sales report showed bad sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1423, 1417 and 1405 March and resistance is at 1455, 1474, and 1500 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week in response top the USDA production reports. USDA surprised the market by cutting yield estimates by 3.8 bushels per acre and production to just 14.867 billion bushels instead of the 15 billion plus expected by most of the trade. The yield and production estimates were below all trade guesses. US ending stocks were equal to the lowest trade estimate at 1.540 billion bushels. New crop Corn futures did not rally that much as everyone expects farmers to plant more Corn this year due to the big offer expected to develop in the next few weeks in Soybeans from South America. Current crop Corn might have fulfilled upside targets with the price action on Friday. The export sales report released last week by USDA showed a big reduction in demand and many think that this could become a feature for the market. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. It is about to turn very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were a little higher last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 460, 457, and 453 March, and resistance is at 474, 479, and 483 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 335, 333, and 329 March, and resistance is at 345, 350, and 356 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher in response to the USDA production reports, and the products closed mixed yesterday, with Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil higher. Soybean Oil rallied on news that President Biden would issue short term guidance on bio fuels very soon. Soybeans were higher in response to bullish US production estimates released by USDA. It estimated yield a full bushel less than last month and production at 4.36s6 billion bushels. Ending stocks were estimated at 380 million bushels. Both estimates from USDA were well below the lowest trade guess. Soybeans filled upside targets for many with the price action on Friday, and now ideas are that Soybeans will eventually move significantly lower. World supplies are large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest last year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Soybeans aare offered cheaper in South America now.
Overnight News: China bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up. Support is at 1004, 992, and 979 March, and resistance is at 1024, 1044, and 1059 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 295.00, 292.00, and 285.00 March, and resistance is at 306.00, 310.00, and 315.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4370, 4310, and 4220 March, with resistance at 4650, 4790, and 4940 March.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was slightly lower last week. But closed well off the lows of the week on MPOB data that showed reduced inventories for the third straight month, but there is still concern about the Indonesian fuel program. Futures were higher today on strength in Chicago. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was higher and the market seems to have finally pushed through the December highs in part due to the bullish USDA reports. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 617.00, 610.00, and 601.00 March, with resistance at 632.00, 640.00, and 647.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4230, 4170, and 4070 March, with resistance at 4450, 4570, and 4650 March.
DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 26.8% on Month to 300,218 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-10 period are estimated down 26.8% on month at 300,218 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Jan. 1-10 Dec. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 71,760 99,220
RBD Palm Oil 36,385 53,450
RBD Palm Stearin 17,208 61,438
Crude Palm Oil 37,500 57,214
Total* 300,218 423,567
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1130.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1102.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1102.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1012.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 995.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1135.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1107.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 1107.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1017.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1000.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1135.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1015.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,870.00 +110.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 475.00 +09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.507)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 13
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 166,297 lots, or 6.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,821 3,821 3,821 3,821 3,779 3,821 42 19 190
Mar-25 3,835 3,880 3,816 3,875 3,818 3,857 39 16,414 39,205
May-25 3,878 3,941 3,875 3,937 3,883 3,911 28 130,101 190,169
Jul-25 3,897 3,945 3,882 3,942 3,889 3,913 24 9,983 34,663
Sep-25 3,914 3,954 3,899 3,951 3,909 3,928 19 6,886 19,440
Nov-25 3,897 3,935 3,890 3,915 3,899 3,909 10 2,894 11,444
Corn
Turnover: 751,018 lots, or 1.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,197 2,197 2,144 2,144 2,127 2,172 45 92 585
Mar-25 2,155 2,181 2,147 2,175 2,158 2,168 10 83,756 399,280
May-25 2,250 2,277 2,242 2,267 2,252 2,260 8 589,179 1,268,222
Jul-25 2,270 2,299 2,266 2,292 2,275 2,285 10 50,881 298,818
Sep-25 2,297 2,319 2,287 2,316 2,296 2,308 12 20,280 75,274
Nov-25 2,249 2,271 2,243 2,265 2,245 2,258 13 6,830 62,152
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,147,109 lots, or 58.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 – – – 2,871 2,871 2,871 0 0 7,552
Mar-25 2,895 2,991 2,884 2,987 2,880 2,953 73 106,590 370,702
May-25 2,665 2,744 2,646 2,741 2,640 2,707 67 1,669,198 2,258,637
Jul-25 2,636 2,707 2,623 2,705 2,619 2,675 56 51,819 304,545
Aug-25 2,795 2,867 2,783 2,865 2,780 2,840 60 16,766 164,422
Sep-25 2,805 2,877 2,791 2,873 2,789 2,847 58 260,745 964,053
Nov-25 2,828 2,899 2,815 2,897 2,815 2,869 54 25,561 208,052
Dec-25 2,895 2,964 2,891 2,961 2,888 2,943 55 16,430 68,198
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,070,332 lots, or 93.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 10,124 10,124 9,858 9,858 9,792 10,016 224 110 457
Feb-25 9,360 9,596 9,360 9,572 9,326 9,504 178 16,227 12,611
Mar-25 9,022 9,286 9,022 9,254 8,968 9,190 222 10,597 17,463
Apr-25 8,728 9,022 8,728 8,970 8,702 8,906 204 1,023 1,411
May-25 8,558 8,822 8,556 8,758 8,490 8,698 208 990,181 452,046
Jun-25 8,376 8,664 8,376 8,618 8,348 8,554 206 825 1,158
Jul-25 8,312 8,554 8,306 8,486 8,272 8,460 188 871 1,254
Aug-25 8,250 8,468 8,246 8,394 8,218 8,352 134 69 194
Sep-25 8,222 8,456 8,222 8,374 8,178 8,342 164 50,143 95,583
Oct-25 8,198 8,398 8,186 8,316 8,132 8,308 176 165 562
Nov-25 8,176 8,382 8,130 8,292 8,120 8,274 154 98 290
Dec-25 8,176 8,362 8,176 8,276 8,120 8,264 144 23 115
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 605,196 lots, or 46.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 – – – 7,554 7,554 7,554 0 0 59
Mar-25 7,652 7,878 7,652 7,822 7,614 7,794 180 9,660 20,838
May-25 7,584 7,790 7,576 7,744 7,532 7,698 166 536,489 630,142
Jul-25 7,514 7,702 7,514 7,656 7,478 7,632 154 2,721 7,690
Aug-25 7,542 7,732 7,542 7,688 7,486 7,648 162 308 571
Sep-25 7,492 7,684 7,492 7,654 7,452 7,608 156 55,836 135,580
Nov-25 7,494 7,714 7,494 7,662 7,488 7,648 160 149 2,368
Dec-25 7,566 7,724 7,556 7,698 7,516 7,646 130 33 54
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.