Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand, and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The Atlanta Fed’s latest update to it’s Home Affordability Index reflected a downturn in home affordability in October, with the index slipping to 66.97, down from 6822 in September. The October figure was still above the record low set in June at 63.95 and was 1.8 points higher than a year ago. However, home affordability remained far below pre-pandemic levels. The Fed estimated that 44.8% of the median home buyer’s income would go towards the median home price payments. That’s up from the pre-pandemic level of 28.6% in February 2021. At the same time, home mortgage rates continue to climb. Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-Year Mortgage this week rose to a 27-week high of 6.93% and was above last year for the 4th consecutive week. Spotty rainfall forecast in South America and US drought coverage shrinks.
CBOT Corn Recovers; World Fob Premiums Steady/Higher Reaction to the USDA Report Critical:
Global corn markets ended steady/higher on Thursday as Argentine weather remains uncertain after Jan 18th amid model disagreement. USDA yield data on Friday and Jan 20-31 Argentine weather forecast key price direction. Clients should be prepared to catch up on cash sales on any post – USDA report rally. Soil moisture will be abundant across Brazil’s safrinha corn belt, with planting just 30-40 days away and Brazilian corn producers profitable amid weakness in the real. This is important as it’s been confirmed that large safinha production has been the catalyst for prior year seasonal/weakness from March into July. 2025 starts with Brazilian corn being well below the last two cop years, but in their local currency, bids to the farmer are higher and more profitable. Traders are looking to NASS/WASDE to edge yield lower and drop US 2024/25 corn stocks near 1,650 Mil Bu. Ag Resources (ARC) believes any rally in December corn near/above $4.50 is a cash sale opportunity, as US export demand has seasonally peaked.
Unemployment & WASDE. The Corn & Ethanol Report 01/10/2025
We kickoff the day with Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand, and WASDE at 11:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The Atlanta Fed’s latest update to it’s Home Affordability Index reflected a downturn in home affordability in October, with the index slipping to 66.97, down from 6822 in September. The October figure was still above the record low set in June at 63.95 and was 1.8 points higher than a year ago. However, home affordability remained far below pre-pandemic levels. The Fed estimated that 44.8% of the median home buyer’s income would go towards the median home price payments. That’s up from the pre-pandemic level of 28.6% in February 2021. At the same time, home mortgage rates continue to climb. Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-Year Mortgage this week rose to a 27-week high of 6.93% and was above last year for the 4th consecutive week. Spotty rainfall forecast in South America and US drought coverage shrinks.
CBOT Corn Recovers; World Fob Premiums Steady/Higher Reaction to the USDA Report Critical:
Global corn markets ended steady/higher on Thursday as Argentine weather remains uncertain after Jan 18th amid model disagreement. USDA yield data on Friday and Jan 20-31 Argentine weather forecast key price direction. Clients should be prepared to catch up on cash sales on any post – USDA report rally. Soil moisture will be abundant across Brazil’s safrinha corn belt, with planting just 30-40 days away and Brazilian corn producers profitable amid weakness in the real. This is important as it’s been confirmed that large safinha production has been the catalyst for prior year seasonal/weakness from March into July. 2025 starts with Brazilian corn being well below the last two cop years, but in their local currency, bids to the farmer are higher and more profitable. Traders are looking to NASS/WASDE to edge yield lower and drop US 2024/25 corn stocks near 1,650 Mil Bu. Ag Resources (ARC) believes any rally in December corn near/above $4.50 is a cash sale opportunity, as US export demand has seasonally peaked.
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Contact me directly with any questions at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
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Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn