Grains Report 01/10/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production
(Production in million bushels)
(Yield in bushels per acre)
(Harvested area in million acres)
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2023-2024
Corn Production 15,092 14,965-15,240 15,143 15,341
Corn Yield 182.6 181.3-183.7 183.1 177.3
Harvested Acres 82.6 82.2-82.7 82.7 86.5

Soybean Production 4,451 4,419-4,539 4,461 4,162
Soybean Yield 51.6 51.2-52.6 51.7 50.6
Harvested Acres 86.3 85.8-86.4 86.3 82.3
****
U.S. 2024-25 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA USDA
Average Range December 2023-24
Corn 1,678 1,540-1,815 1,738 1,760
Soybeans 454 390-486 470 342
Wheat 807 792-830 795 696
****
World 2024-25 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25 USDA
Average Range December
Corn 295.0 290.5-297.1 296.4
Soybeans 132.0 130.0-133.0 131.9
Wheat 258.2 256.5-259.0 257.9
****
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2024 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Sept. 2024 Dec. 2023
Corn 12,164 11,912-12,320 1,760 12,171
Soybeans 3,236 3,040-3,587 342 3,001
Wheat 1,578 1,460-1,638 1,986 1,421
****
U.S. 2025 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Average Range USDA 2024
All Winter Wheat 33.5 32.5-34.4 33.4
Hard Red Winter 23.8 23.3-24.5 23.8
Soft Red Winter 6.2 5.7-6.5 6.1
White Winter 3.5 3.4-3.6 3.5

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 10
For the week ended Jan 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 111.3 0.0 17016.2 15393.2 4653.6 39.6
hrw 18.1 0.0 4016.3 2684.0 1064.0 12.6
srw -1.2 0.0 2552.5 4324.7 730.7 27.0
hrs 35.2 0.0 5560.1 4976.0 1486.5 0.0
white 59.2 0.0 4551.2 3047.3 1244.7 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 336.0 361.1 127.7 0.0
corn 445.0 0.0 39245.9 30276.3 22634.3 860.6
soybeans 288.7 0.4 40390.9 36606.7 10429.4 144.6
soymeal 144.9 1.1 8449.0 7203.7 4525.1 104.3
soyoil 34.6 0.1 599.4 32.0 394.5 0.3
upland cotton 137.4 0.0 7752.1 8885.9 4892.7 473.2
pima cotton 6.4 0.0 246.9 191.3 76.6 0.0
sorghum -0.1 0.0 1116.7 4066.1 91.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.3 16.6 17.8 3.0
rice 10.7 0.0 1888.7 1895.3 596.7 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan 13, 2025 44 Jan 08, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 13, 2025 20 Jan 08, 2025
SOYBEAN January Jan 13, 2025 33 Dec 31, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower again yesterday and the trends are starting to turn down. There was not any real news for buyers. World Wheat demand has been strong, but there has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 528, 522, and 516 March, with resistance at 554, 561, and 569 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 538, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 560, 568, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 March, and resistance is at 601, 606, and 611 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday in continued speculative short covering and some new commercial buying. The trends are up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices, but the difference is now less to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1423, 1417 and 1405 March and resistance is at 1454, 1474, and 1500 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading before the export sales report today and the major USDA reports that will be released later today. The export sales report released last week by USDA showed a big reduction in demand and many think that this could become a feature for the market. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. It is about to turn very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were a little lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 448, 441, and 436 March, and resistance is at 460, 464, and 470 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 320, 313, and 398 March, and resistance is at 336, 339, and 350 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher, and the products closed mixed yesterday, with Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil higher. Soybeans were in a consolidation mode before the release of the USDA reports today. Ideas are that Soybeans will eventually move significantly lower. Supplies are very large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest last year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. And are getting cheaper Soybeans from Brazil. Supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 983, 972, and 969 March, and resistance is at 1004, 1015, and 1024 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 297.00, 292.00, and 285.00 March, and resistance is at 306.00, 310.00, and 315.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4080, 3950, and 3900 March, with resistance at 4260, 4370, and 4410 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on MPOB data that showed reduced inventories for the third straight month, but there is still concern about the Indonesian fuel program. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower and the market seems to be pushing once again for the December highs, but is failing. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 617.00, 610.00, and 601.00 March, with resistance at 632.00, 640.00, and 647.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4230, 4170, and 4070 March, with resistance at 4450, 4570, and 4650 March.

DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports Down 10%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 10% on month at 1.34 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said. The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:
December November Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,486,786 1,621,294 Dn 8.3%
Palm Oil Exports 1,341,732 1,490,293 Dn 9.97%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 95,918 108,568 Dn 11.65%
Palm Oil Imports 37,917 22,081 Up 71.72%
Closing Stocks 1,708,747 1,835,641 Dn 6.91%
Crude Palm Oil 894,321 907,494 Dn 1.45%
Processed Palm Oil 814,426 928,147 Dn 12.25%

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 26.8% on Month to 300,218 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-10 period are estimated down 26.8% on month at 300,218 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Jan. 1-10 Dec. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 71,760 99,220
RBD Palm Oil 36,385 53,450
RBD Palm Stearin 17,208 61,438
Crude Palm Oil 37,500 57,214
Total* 300,218 423,567
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Widespread snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1095.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1070.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1070.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 995.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 980.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1100.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1075.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1075.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1000.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 985.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1120.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1000.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,760.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 466.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4955)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 239,525 lots, or 9.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 – – – 3,779 3,779 3,779 0 0 171
Mar-25 3,772 3,843 3,772 3,832 3,772 3,818 46 22,916 38,663
May-25 3,845 3,912 3,838 3,893 3,839 3,883 44 183,552 178,988
Jul-25 3,862 3,914 3,856 3,899 3,856 3,889 33 19,928 33,816
Sep-25 3,888 3,928 3,883 3,917 3,882 3,909 27 10,057 18,499
Nov-25 3,889 3,919 3,880 3,901 3,882 3,899 17 3,072 9,977
Corn
Turnover: 1,127,791 lots, or 25.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,127 2,127 2,127 2,127 2,101 2,127 26 18 6,273
Mar-25 2,148 2,166 2,143 2,157 2,138 2,158 20 132,826 406,695
May-25 2,232 2,262 2,231 2,250 2,225 2,252 27 881,711 1,247,029
Jul-25 2,258 2,284 2,258 2,273 2,253 2,275 22 73,096 287,535
Sep-25 2,279 2,303 2,279 2,294 2,274 2,296 22 26,792 70,504
Nov-25 2,228 2,253 2,228 2,248 2,225 2,245 20 13,348 58,473
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,780,822 lots, or 47.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,860 2,880 2,860 2,880 2,835 2,871 36 6 7,558
Mar-25 2,848 2,903 2,845 2,890 2,846 2,880 34 122,780 364,927
May-25 2,616 2,660 2,616 2,659 2,628 2,640 12 1,351,136 2,262,095
Jul-25 2,601 2,638 2,596 2,632 2,611 2,619 8 53,488 301,267
Aug-25 2,761 2,802 2,757 2,790 2,773 2,780 7 14,885 163,467
Sep-25 2,772 2,812 2,765 2,798 2,783 2,789 6 209,577 938,174
Nov-25 2,794 2,836 2,790 2,822 2,807 2,815 8 19,738 205,807
Dec-25 2,867 2,904 2,866 2,895 2,880 2,888 8 9,212 62,602
Palm Oil
Turnover: 984,552 lots, or 83.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,940 9,940 9,750 9,800 9,790 9,792 2 124 537
Feb-25 9,318 9,384 9,262 9,344 9,336 9,326 -10 15,506 14,293
Mar-25 8,950 9,030 8,914 9,002 8,972 8,968 -4 8,970 17,504
Apr-25 8,662 8,754 8,636 8,728 8,674 8,702 28 1,002 1,496
May-25 8,438 8,552 8,404 8,524 8,506 8,490 -16 911,495 443,978
Jun-25 8,306 8,404 8,270 8,376 8,362 8,348 -14 182 585
Jul-25 8,220 8,324 8,200 8,312 8,290 8,272 -18 128 552
Aug-25 8,180 8,250 8,158 8,250 8,234 8,218 -16 63 189
Sep-25 8,150 8,224 8,110 8,204 8,204 8,178 -26 47,013 92,847
Oct-25 8,110 8,174 8,082 8,166 8,168 8,132 -36 39 496
Nov-25 8,074 8,154 8,074 8,154 8,168 8,120 -48 25 350
Dec-25 8,116 8,132 8,104 8,104 8,144 8,120 -24 5 125
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 449,900 lots, or 33.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 – – – 7,554 7,554 7,554 0 0 1,208
Mar-25 7,590 7,662 7,560 7,660 7,596 7,614 18 6,429 20,573
May-25 7,484 7,584 7,470 7,580 7,514 7,532 18 410,647 637,396
Jul-25 7,452 7,526 7,426 7,516 7,478 7,478 0 1,264 7,455
Aug-25 7,462 7,536 7,448 7,528 7,516 7,486 -30 49 610
Sep-25 7,430 7,498 7,398 7,494 7,456 7,452 -4 31,023 138,162
Nov-25 7,454 7,534 7,440 7,534 7,448 7,488 40 482 2,432
Dec-25 7,488 7,550 7,480 7,548 7,486 7,516 30 6 64
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322