Weekly Ag Markets Update – 11/11/2024

Wheat:  The markets were a little lower last week in Kansas City and Minneapolis, but a little higher in Chicago SRW.  The USDA supply and demand reports released Friday did little to help Wheat prices as domestic and world ending stocks levels were a little above trade expectations at 815 million bushels in the US and 257.6 million tons for the world.  US supply data was not touched.  Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were also negative for prices.  The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops.  Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn:  Corn closed a little higher last week as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong.  The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong.  Oats were lower.  USDA cut Corn production in izts WASDE reports on Friday, but left demand untouched.  Demand was no increased as the trade had expected, so ending stocks ended above trade expectations at 1.938 billion bushels for the US and 314.2 million tons for the world.  The harvest is winding down but is still active and yield reports in general have been strong.  It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress and this week looks to be dry after some wet weather was seen last week.  The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less.  Corn is being harvested with dry grain.  The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day.  Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brazil and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans were sharply higher as the market initially reacted the release of the USDA reports, butz could not hold the best gains of the day and closed moderately higher.  USDA cut yields and production estimates more than expected, but also cut demand.  Even so, the ending stocks estimate was cut to 470 million bushels.  That is still a lot of Soybeans to carry forward, but much less than the trade had expected.  That amount was 535 million bushels.  Soybean Meal was slightly higher and Soybean Oil was higher as the US government issued some guidelines for bio fuels production earlier in the week.  Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country.  Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods.  Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are moving through Corn.  Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year.  Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway.  Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice closed lower last week and trends are down on the charts.  The US Dollar was lower, and this did not help demand ideas.  USA Rice said that Iraq bought 44,000 tons of milled Long Grain Rice last week, but the news had little effect on prices.  USDA made no changes in its supply and demand reports to the Rice supply side.  USDA cut 2 million cwt from export demand, with 3 million reduced from Long Grain demand but 1 million added to short and medium grain.  All Rice ending stocks were increased by 1 million cwt to 46.7e million, and Long Grain was up 2 million to 29.1 million cwt.  Lower Asian prices are still reported.  Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices.  The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year.  The harvest is over for most US producers and yield reports have had a wide range from poor to good.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was higher last week on ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and strength in Chicago Soybean Oil.  There are reports of good demand and the private surveyors have indicated that exports have been strong.  Canola was higher as support came from Soybean Oil on ideas that the US government has increased demand for biofuels and therefore vegetable oils.  The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin.  Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton was higher last week as traders prepared for the USDA reports that were release on Friday.  The reports showed unchanged domestic production and a cut in export demand for ending stocks 20 thousand bales higher at 4.30 million bales.  World ending stocks estimates were a little lower at 75.75 million bales.  Ending stocks were reduced for both importers and exporters.  Trends are mixed to up in this market.  China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there.  Real estate has been the big problem there.  There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed higher on Friday but lower for the week last week.  The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida.  The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now.  Rain is expected this week.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London were lower Friday as the US Dollar moved higher.  Both markets were higher last week.  Reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops continue.  The chart trends are mixed in both markets as the harvest in Vietnam is more active.  Strong harvest activity is expected to start in Vietnam this month.  The demand for Vietnamese Coffee is reported to be less right now.  Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam.  There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.  Brazil yields have been a little less so far.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London closed a little lower last week and London made new lows for the move before showing a small recovery.  The rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year.  Trends are still sideways in both markets.  Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand.  Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane.  It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress.  Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months.  Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  Both markets closed higher last week.  Weekly chart trends are sideways in New York and up in London.  Reports of better harvest conditions in West Africa have helped push differentials lower.  Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting to much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops.  It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop.  Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322