Softs Report 11/11/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week as traders prepared for the USDA reports that were release on Friday. The reports showed unchanged domestic production and a cut in export demand for ending stocks 20 thousand bales higher at 4.30 million bales. World ending stocks estimates were a little lower at 75.75 million bales. Ending stocks were reduced for both importers and exporters. Trends are mixed to up in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate has been the big problem there. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 69.00, 68.30, and 67.50 December, with resistance of 71.40, 72.70 and 73.50 December.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
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2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Oct Nov
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 11.17 11.17
Harvested 7.29 6.44 8.63 8.63

Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 789 789

Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.60 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 14.47 12.07 14.20 14.19
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 19.07 16.72 17.36 17.35
Domestic Use 2.05 1.85 1.80 1.80
Exports, Total 12.45 11.75 11.50 11.30
Use, Total 14.50 13.60 13.30 13.10
Unaccounted 2/ -0.08 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05
Ending Stocks 4.65 3.15 4.10 4.30
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.1 66.0 66.0
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WASDE – 654 – 18 November 2024

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2024/25 Proj.
World
Oct 75.20 116.64 42.48 115.74 42.47 -0.22 76.33
Nov 74.59 116.18 42.15 115.22 42.18 -0.23 75.75
World Less China
Oct 38.08 88.44 33.48 77.74 42.40 -0.22 40.08
Nov 37.47 87.98 33.15 77.22 42.10 -0.23 39.51
United States
Oct 3.15 14.20 0.01 1.80 11.50 -0.04 4.10
Nov 3.15 14.19 0.01 1.80 11.30 -0.05 4.30
Total Foreign
Oct 72.05 102.44 42.47 113.94 30.97 -0.18 72.23
Nov 71.44 101.99 42.15 113.42 30.88 -0.18 71.45
Major Exporters 4/
Oct 25.36 58.75 3.00 34.66 26.76 -0.18 25.86
Nov 24.86 58.67 3.07 34.65 26.79 -0.18 25.34
Major Importers 8/
Oct 44.27 40.20 36.81 74.99 2.37 0.00 43.93
Nov 44.27 39.94 36.41 74.49 2.35 0.00 43.78
================================================================================
WASDE – 654 – 28 November 2024

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 311,188
: Positions :
: 32,150 66,297 82,941 87,004 121,701 92,926 24,763 295,021 295,702: 16,167 15,486
: Changes from: October 29, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,934) :
: 2,913 -87 3,835 -2,113 -794 -957 2,229 3,678 5,183: 1,256 -249
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 21.3 26.7 28.0 39.1 29.9 8.0 94.8 95.0: 5.2 5.0
: Total Traders: 299 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 96 104 68 60 45 23 251 224:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday but lower for the week last week. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 454.00, 447.00, and 433.00 January, with resistance at a 569.00, 578.00, and 583.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 5, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,484 :
: Positions :
: 2,149 8,196 568 0 190 3,830 0 3 826 499 2,659 :
: Changes from: October 29, 2024 :
: 566 -169 15 0 84 -402 0 -9 -223 130 -19 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.2 65.6 4.5 0.0 1.5 30.7 0.0 0.0 6.6 4.0 21.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 10 10 . 0 . 16 0 . 8 9 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower Friday as the US Dollar moved higher. Both markets were higher last week. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops continue. The chart trends are mixed in both markets as the harvest in Vietnam is more active. Strong harvest activity is expected to start in Vietnam this month. The demand for Vietnamese Coffee is reported to be less right now. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions. Brazil yields have been a little less so far.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 248.00 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 250.00, 244.00, and 242.00 December, and resistance is at 261.00, 264.00 and 268.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 4360, 4240, and 4000 January, with resistance at 4560, 4670, and 4770 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 257,626
: Positions :
: 46,784 9,626 78,011 60,857 150,097 63,317 13,690 248,969 251,425: 8,657 6,201
: Changes from: October 29, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,417) :
: -1,098 -191 7,115 -674 -5,896 -1,781 2,242 3,562 3,270: -145 148
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.2 3.7 30.3 23.6 58.3 24.6 5.3 96.6 97.6: 3.4 2.4
: Total Traders: 371 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 68 113 101 123 49 21 317 279:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower last week and London made new lows for the move before showing a small recovery. The rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are still sideways in both markets. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2100, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2260, 2300, and 2340 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 555.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 584.00, 590.00, and 593.00 December.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Oct Nov
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 2231 2162
Production 2/ 9250 9368 9495 9276
Beet Sugar 5187 5236 5347 5210
Cane Sugar 4063 4133 4148 4066
Florida 1985 2077 2053 2053
Louisiana 2001 2016 2095 2014
Texas 76 40 0 0
Imports 3614 3765 2568 2581
TRQ 3/ 1862 1788 1628 1628
Other Program 4/ 141 225 200 200
Non-program 1611 1752 740 753
Mexico 1156 521 395 395
High-tier tariff/other 455 1231 345 358
Total Supply 14685 14976 14293 14019
Exports 82 249 100 100
Deliveries 12589 12460 12405 12455
Food 12473 12354 12300 12350
Other 5/ 116 106 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 105 0 0
Total Use 12843 12814 12505 12555
Ending Stocks 1843 2162 1788 1464
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 16.9 14.3 11.7
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Oct 835 4704 854 4532 446 1414
Nov 835 4704 761 4436 446 1418
2024/25 Proj.
Oct 1414 5094 25 4630 932 972
Nov 1418 5094 96 4630 1006 972
================================================================================
WASDE – 654 – 17 November 2024

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,021,437
: Positions :
: 114,920 131,124 227,600 360,291 585,340 231,994 26,153 934,805 970,218: 86,632 51,219
: Changes from: October 29, 2024 (Change in open interest: 10,930) :
: 426 1,626 4,988 9,610 3,523 -4,500 869 10,525 11,005: 405 -75
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 12.8 22.3 35.3 57.3 22.7 2.6 91.5 95.0: 8.5 5.0
: Total Traders: 235 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 38 78 70 70 41 18 214 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week. Weekly chart trends are sideways in New York and up in London. Reports of better harvest conditions in West Africa have helped push differentials lower. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting to much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 6880, 6820, and 6570 December, with resistance at 7520, 7650, and 7920 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5710, 5470, and 5380 December, with resistance at 5940, 5980, and 6060 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 156,572
: Positions :
: 27,522 12,211 35,123 53,773 95,999 28,282 8,407 144,700 151,741: 11,872 4,831
: Changes from: October 29, 2024 (Change in open interest: -24,394) :
: 1,184 1,079 -20,504 -4,772 -4,192 -238 -769 -24,330 -24,385: -64 -9
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.6 7.8 22.4 34.3 61.3 18.1 5.4 92.4 96.9: 7.6 3.1
: Total Traders: 163 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 37 58 35 34 32 15 146 120:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322