Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 10/28/2024
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week afte a week of choppy trading as export demand remains weak and the US Dollar was strong. Trends are mixed in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate has been the big problem there. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 71.50, 70.20, and 69.30 December, with resistance of 72.70, 73.50 and 74.10 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 302,903
: Positions :
: 29,320 61,337 78,400 86,491 130,138 93,403 18,974 287,614 288,848: 15,289 14,055
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,434) :
: 4,408 -421 1,989 -226 4,708 242 376 6,412 6,652: 22 -218
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 20.2 25.9 28.6 43.0 30.8 6.3 95.0 95.4: 5.0 4.6
: Total Traders: 294 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 94 100 64 64 46 23 248 218:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and was led higher by the spot November contract as the market remains short of juice. Trends are turning up again in this market. USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 18 million in its previous report and 20 million last year. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 509.00, 500.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at a 530.00, 536.00, and 542.00 November
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,997 :
: Positions :
: 1,684 7,627 601 0 129 3,565 0 183 894 461 2,490 :
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 :
: -627 -707 -57 0 -216 149 -159 158 -176 -80 -1,559 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 63.6 5.0 0.0 1.1 29.7 0.0 1.5 7.4 3.8 20.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 11 10 . 0 . 20 0 5 12 6 9 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower last week on reports of weakness in Vietnamese prices, and the chart trends are down in both markets as the harvest in Vietnam is more active. The demand for Vietnamese Coffee is reported to be less right now and this has been a big problem for bullish traders. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 243.57 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 242.00, 236.00, and 228.00 December, and resistance is at 256.00, 265.00 and 2w68.00 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4320, 4160, and 4060 November, with resistance at 4550, 4650, and 4800 November.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 258,357
: Positions :
: 50,458 11,727 71,746 61,280 157,141 65,799 11,995 249,283 252,609: 9,074 5,748
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,225) :
: -1,341 585 1,976 -648 -540 940 -1,001 928 1,020: 297 205
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.5 4.5 27.8 23.7 60.8 25.5 4.6 96.5 97.8: 3.5 2.2
: Total Traders: 387 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 125 70 119 98 126 50 22 325 293:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed slightly lower last week. Trends are sideways to down in New York but are sideways in London. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil and this has affected harvest progress. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2100, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2260, 2290, and 2340 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 555.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 577.00, 586.00, and 590.00 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 984,815
: Positions :
: 115,895 121,130 217,912 330,357 570,912 233,902 24,650 898,067 934,605: 86,749 50,211
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: -8,704) :
: -14,555 7,081 -11,148 12,227 -5,952 5,109 -1,854 -8,367 -11,873: -337 3,170
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 12.3 22.1 33.5 58.0 23.8 2.5 91.2 94.9: 8.8 5.1
: Total Traders: 233 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 40 74 72 74 41 18 213 176:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower last week on better harvest conditions in West Africa. An Ivory Coast government official said that the country could produce 10% more Cocoa this year although he noted that it has been very wet recently and yields could be affected. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 6600, 6350, and 6000 December, with resistance at 6920, 7440, and 7510 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4930, 4860, and 4470 December, with resistance at 5340, 5520, and 5620 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 188,567
: Positions :
: 27,874 11,041 64,914 55,617 98,548 29,265 8,749 177,670 183,251: 10,897 5,316
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,271) :
: -2,041 -146 -3,511 81 -1,736 -575 -1,137 -6,046 -6,531: -225 260
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 5.9 34.4 29.5 52.3 15.5 4.6 94.2 97.2: 5.8 2.8
: Total Traders: 179 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 37 62 40 34 30 12 164 121:
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