Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 10/28/2024
WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower last week despite a relatively strong weekly export sales report from USDA and ideas of reduced production in Russia. The dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Both areas could get better rains in the next two weeks. Cash markets in Russia were higher as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 564, 561, and 556 December, with resistance at 589, 595, and 598 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 570, 566, and 561 December, with resistance at 593, 603, and 608 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 604, 595, and 586 December, and resistance is at 624, 632, and 646 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 487,950
: Positions :
: 43,430 109,742 164,234 98,359 112,870 148,613 63,404 454,636 450,251: 33,314 37,699
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,433) :
: 476 2,670 6,127 8,842 1,336 -1,533 3,344 13,913 13,478: 520 955
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 22.5 33.7 20.2 23.1 30.5 13.0 93.2 92.3: 6.8 7.7
: Total Traders: 378 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 99 125 102 109 47 35 311 306:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 266,912
: Positions :
: 25,363 41,910 64,934 61,306 101,165 96,233 35,128 247,836 243,136: 19,076 23,775
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: 10,866) :
: -963 -1,006 2,709 6,667 5,840 2,862 2,383 11,275 9,926: -409 940
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 15.7 24.3 23.0 37.9 36.1 13.2 92.9 91.1: 7.1 8.9
: Total Traders: 245 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 61 60 81 78 39 22 199 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 72,847 :
: Positions :
: 34,706 27,188 3,540 0 133 8,364 18,581 7,787 2,584 2,965 3,799 :
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 :
: 2,254 -3,878 -273 0 -41 -863 4,207 459 93 134 120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 47.6 37.3 4.9 0.0 0.2 11.5 25.5 10.7 3.5 4.1 5.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 108 :
: 51 33 6 0 . 6 25 12 11 . 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher last week in choppy trading and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. The US Dollar was higher and this hurt demand ideas. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice in recent weeks. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest is over for most US producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1495, 1489, and 1475 November and resistance is at 1508, 1525, and 1532 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,033 :
: Positions :
: 5,080 6,393 69 203 0 652 1,460 76 1,863 63 685 :
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 :
: 179 -205 0 50 0 0 367 -16 -18 -9 -14 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 50.6 63.7 0.7 2.0 0.0 6.5 14.6 0.8 18.6 0.6 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 21 13 . . 0 . 9 . 12 4 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in response to a very strong weekly export sales report and on strong demand ideas in general. Oats were a little lower. The harvest is still active and yield reports in general have been strong. It remains very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress. The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brail and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina. The demand has been strong and it could be that the US political situation is playing a part in the strength in demand as many fear that Trump can win and would impose new tariffs and create trade wars.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought120,000 tons of US Corn and Japan bought 124,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 413, 408, and 399 December, and resistance is at 424, 428, and 434 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 374, 370, and 357 December, and resistance is at 384, 390, and 394 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,121,387
: Positions :
: 176,810 258,942 661,390 668,534 791,957 435,190 172,215 1,941,924 1,884,504: 179,463 236,883
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: 130,080) :
: 34,492 18,755 29,440 47,841 71,977 8,248 23,118 120,021 143,291: 10,059 -13,211
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 12.2 31.2 31.5 37.3 20.5 8.1 91.5 88.8: 8.5 11.2
: Total Traders: 839 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 159 151 205 380 389 51 32 693 692:
——————————————————————————————————————-
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,172 :
: Positions :
: 703 2,238 197 250 0 771 131 0 661 153 171 :
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 :
: -80 -17 -5 0 0 39 0 0 85 52 10 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 53.6 4.7 6.0 0.0 18.5 3.1 0.0 15.8 3.7 4.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 6 5 . . 0 4 . 0 5 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and Soybean Meal was lower last week on demand reports that were strong again for export in the weekly and daily export sales reports released on Thursday. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. An uptrend is most likely starting. Ideas are that a potential Trump presidency would hurt trade potential with many countries, but especially China. It could be that export buyers and sellers are getting ahead of any threat of a new Trump presidency and the threat of another big round of tariffs now. China has announced new economic support measures for its economy last week. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are switching to Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week. Central and northern Brazil rains will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 984, 968, and 961 November, and resistance is at 1012, 1025, and 1039 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 300.00, 294.00, and 288.00 December, and resistance is at 323.00, 327.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4300, 4140, and 4070 December, with resistance at 4530, 4560, and 4670 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,277,598
: Positions :
: 90,680 162,583 410,437 504,610 498,532 208,945 117,888 1,214,673 1,189,441: 62,926 88,157
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,609) :
: -419 18,288 16,633 -13,883 -25,195 -7,534 -2,166 -5,202 7,560: 6,811 -5,951
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.1 12.7 32.1 39.5 39.0 16.4 9.2 95.1 93.1: 4.9 6.9
: Total Traders: 633 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 173 205 243 250 48 27 537 535:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 594,104
: Positions :
: 82,914 72,750 132,272 175,718 325,856 167,063 37,386 557,968 568,265: 36,136 25,839
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: 25,817) :
: 1,291 -11,359 10,574 2,542 23,528 8,490 4,713 22,898 27,456: 2,919 -1,639
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 12.2 22.3 29.6 54.8 28.1 6.3 93.9 95.7: 6.1 4.3
: Total Traders: 326 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 62 99 103 99 46 23 283 241:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 643,667
: Positions :
: 95,838 70,585 156,548 186,415 352,725 147,105 31,931 585,906 611,789: 57,761 31,878
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,704) :
: 1,402 -4,745 -905 11,265 14,709 3,513 3,062 15,275 12,121: -571 2,583
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 11.0 24.3 29.0 54.8 22.9 5.0 91.0 95.0: 9.0 5.0
: Total Traders: 344 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 70 97 124 120 41 22 295 263:
——————————————————————————————————————-
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on strength in outside markets and on reports from private sources of good demand. It was lower today on price action in outside markets. There are ideas of weaker production to go along with the reports of good demand. Canola was higher as competing oils also rallied. Ideas are that China might be buying ahead to get imports in place before any new tariffs are decided and the Canadian Grain Commission reported strong Chinese demand earlier in the week. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 627.00, 614.00, and 6w07.00 November, with resistance at 647.00, 668.00, and 681.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4360, 4310, and 4230 January, with resistance at 4660, 4720, and 4780 January.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 35,089 :
: Positions :
: 29,401 12,932 220 12,094 730 870 1,646 120 348 4,145 3,400 :
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 :
: 1,140 -340 -120 22 120 0 196 80 0 1,140 -1,100 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 83.8 36.9 0.6 34.5 2.1 2.5 4.7 0.3 1.0 11.8 9.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 37 :
: 10 10 . 7 5 . . . . 9 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 22, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 232,330 :
: Positions :
: 172,899 85,123 3,797 12,660 1,283 14,669 79,749 17,597 6,157 18,387 14,199 :
: Changes from: October 15, 2024 :
: -6,538 10,440 279 35 -555 11,013 -10,014 -1,852 -2,620 1,933 -766 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 74.4 36.6 1.6 5.4 0.6 6.3 34.3 7.6 2.7 7.9 6.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 348 :
: 61 73 5 5 5 21 67 29 55 97 66 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1115.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1105.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1072.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1027.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 990.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1120.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1110.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1077.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1032.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 995.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1110.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 935.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4,680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 415.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3605)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 28
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 165,145 lots, or .65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,890 3,908 3,880 3,905 3,955 3,893 -62 1,152 6,636
Jan-25 3,924 3,949 3,911 3,944 3,973 3,928 -45 137,149 202,773
Mar-25 3,938 3,940 3,909 3,937 3,971 3,922 -49 9,031 32,742
May-25 3,961 3,981 3,952 3,978 4,003 3,963 -40 14,557 34,861
Jul-25 3,993 4,001 3,973 4,001 4,020 3,984 -36 1,738 5,701
Sep-25 4,010 4,019 3,990 4,017 4,035 4,001 -34 1,518 7,940
Corn
Turnover: 628,317 lots, or 14.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,180 2,190 2,171 2,184 2,188 2,179 -9 16,894 65,975
Jan-25 2,221 2,232 2,210 2,227 2,228 2,220 -8 492,095 858,706
Mar-25 2,243 2,257 2,234 2,251 2,250 2,244 -6 54,248 269,396
May-25 2,282 2,302 2,272 2,295 2,287 2,286 -1 47,015 130,746
Jul-25 2,296 2,318 2,286 2,312 2,302 2,300 -2 15,399 81,158
Sep-25 2,312 2,335 2,303 2,329 2,319 2,318 -1 2,666 9,204
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,994,897 lots, or 58.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,877 2,909 2,838 2,895 2,889 2,876 -13 19,368 32,093
Dec-24 2,941 2,998 2,927 2,985 2,970 2,965 -5 29,019 199,304
Jan-25 2,953 2,998 2,930 2,985 2,979 2,965 -14 1,311,338 1,570,461
Mar-25 2,939 2,980 2,926 2,971 2,960 2,958 -2 43,245 186,970
May-25 2,820 2,838 2,795 2,835 2,840 2,819 -21 488,938 1,453,373
Jul-25 2,810 2,825 2,789 2,820 2,829 2,808 -21 16,072 142,238
Aug-25 2,902 2,920 2,882 2,916 2,921 2,901 -20 5,369 88,520
Sep-25 2,905 2,920 2,883 2,917 2,923 2,902 -21 81,548 255,141
Palm Oil
Turnover: 981,803 lots, or 90.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 9,434 9,460 9,284 9,372 9,466 9,366 -100 372 1,379
Dec-24 9,394 9,438 9,208 9,344 9,490 9,314 -176 11,658 9,716
Jan-25 9,300 9,366 9,138 9,270 9,376 9,256 -120 883,861 554,726
Feb-25 9,206 9,256 9,036 9,156 9,250 9,120 -130 421 520
Mar-25 9,106 9,166 8,944 9,068 9,164 9,058 -106 618 3,273
Apr-25 9,004 9,062 8,840 8,998 9,068 8,992 -76 78 438
May-25 8,906 8,972 8,738 8,864 8,970 8,852 -118 83,337 153,471
Jun-25 8,782 8,838 8,616 8,770 8,838 8,764 -74 32 227
Jul-25 8,712 8,712 8,492 8,644 8,706 8,568 -138 32 264
Aug-25 8,536 8,602 8,394 8,508 8,582 8,514 -68 12 54
Sep-25 8,434 8,498 8,290 8,390 8,500 8,392 -108 1,368 4,816
Oct-25 8,466 8,466 8,352 8,352 8,514 8,376 -138 14 140
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 823,391 lots, or 69.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,364 8,394 8,122 8,214 8,366 8,244 -122 1,268 6,588
Dec-24 8,498 8,570 8,294 8,386 8,526 8,408 -118 7,897 13,404
Jan-25 8,538 8,610 8,332 8,428 8,558 8,464 -94 640,550 679,585
Mar-25 8,342 8,388 8,122 8,232 8,350 8,238 -112 1,088 5,144
May-25 8,152 8,216 7,946 8,064 8,164 8,082 -82 166,404 404,693
Jul-25 7,922 7,994 7,752 7,860 7,948 7,860 -88 299 1,593
Aug-25 7,966 7,980 7,758 7,848 7,944 7,844 -100 90 228
Sep-25 7,900 7,952 7,742 7,824 7,930 7,846 -84 5,795 11,436
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.